After multiple rounds of negotiations between Israel and Syria’s interim government to reach a security agreement in southern Syria, the talks have recently entered a state of stagnation. Analysts cite several obstacles, ranging from conflicting demands to unresolved political conditions. However, following the Gaza ceasefire agreement brokered under the U.S. peace plan for the Middle East, the Syrian Israeli security file is expected to resurface as regional actors push for lasting stability.
Most observers believe that, if successful, the Gaza deal and President Donald Trump’s broader Middle East initiative could pave the way for new regional understandings and reshape political dynamics. Syria, due to its geographic and strategic position, and with the fall of the Assad regime and the decline of both Iranian and Russian influence, is unlikely to remain on the sidelines.
Stalled negotiations
Last week, The Washington Post reported that the talks over a potential security deal between Syria and Israel had stalled because of internal disagreements and new Israeli demands. The proposed agreement aimed to establish a demilitarised zone in southern Syria, restore the 1974 disengagement lines, and provide expanded protection for the Druze community in As-Suwayda. However, Israel’s request to open a humanitarian corridor to the area reportedly led to the failure of an announcement during the UN General Assembly meetings last month.
In an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes”, aired last Monday, Syrian Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa stated that “Israel has targeted the vicinity of the presidential palace in Damascus twice; not as a message, but as a declaration of war.” He emphasised that “Syria does not seek conflict or threaten Israel or any other party,” adding that “Damascus has not provoked Tel Aviv since the interim government took office late last year.” Al-Sharaa reiterated Syria’s demand for the “withdrawal of Israeli forces from all areas occupied after December 8.”
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump told the Israeli Knesset that “the region will live in peace forever,” declaring that “the end of the Gaza war marks the end of an era of death.” He claimed to have “ended eight wars in eight months” and described the moment as “a golden age for Israel and the Middle East.”
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Israeli conditions
According to Syrian political analyst Alaa al-Asfari, based in Damascus, “there are ongoing efforts to reach a U.S.-sponsored security agreement between Syria and Israel, but Israeli obstinacy remains the main obstacle.” He said Israel’s demand to open a humanitarian passage into As-Suwayda is unacceptable to Damascus, while Syria insists on a return to the pre–December 8 frontlines and full withdrawal from occupied areas, including Mount Hermon.
Al-Asfari added that “serious U.S. pressure on Israel is needed to make progress,” arguing that “continued airstrikes and unilateral demands will only deepen instability.”
During the same Knesset session, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared, “The time has come for peace. The coming years will be years of peace inside and outside Israel.” He reaffirmed his joint commitment with Trump to “achieve peace, just as we did with the Abraham Accords,” thanking the U.S. president for recognising Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and for withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal.
Neither side ready
Ismat Mansour, a Jerusalem-based journalist specialising in Israeli affairs, believes that “there are major difficulties facing any security agreement between Syria and Israel. Israel is not ready, and Damascus has not received an offer compelling enough to move forward.” He explained that “Tel Aviv wants an arrangement that not only ensures security but also ends Syrian claims over the Golan Heights or at least gives Israel a degree of oversight over southern areas such as As-Suwayda.”
Mansour added, “If Israel’s appetite for peace grows after the Gaza war, the atmosphere could change, making an agreement more feasible. For now, however, neither side seems willing to pay the price.”
Last week, Israeli forces reportedly set up a new checkpoint between the villages of al-Malqa and Saida al-Golan in the Quneitra countryside, southwestern Syria, searching civilians and preventing movement toward their villages. This came a day after five Syrians were detained and later released, part of a broader pattern of Israeli military incursions since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Israel has established nine new military positions beyond the buffer zone.
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani told CNN that Israeli airstrikes following Assad’s fall “shocked the country and made normalisation talks extremely difficult.” He criticised Israel for “obstructing the transitional government’s efforts to manage sectarian violence between Druze and Bedouins in southern Syria,” insisting that “a strong, unified Syria is in Israel’s security interest as well.”
Al-Shaibani stressed that Syrians were “deeply shocked” by the post-Assad Israeli raids, especially given that Iranian and Hezbollah forces had already left the country. “We pose no threat to anyone,” he said. “The talk of normalisation or joining the Abraham Accords is premature at best.”
Prior to his UN visit, Netanyahu’s office stated that the “goal of negotiations with Syria is to secure Israel’s interests,” which include “demilitarising southwestern Syria and ensuring the safety of the Druze community.”
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A strategic shift
Mansour added that “Israel is seeking Syrian consent for the changes it made to the 1974 security arrangement, especially its control of Mount Hermon. This represents a major strategic shift that could threaten not only Syria but the wider region.” He noted that “the situation is complex: what Israel demands is substantial, and what Syria would have to give up is significant.”
Even if a deal were reached, Mansour warned, it could spark internal tension in Syria. “Given Syria’s decades of nationalist mobilisation, any agreement that appears to concede territory would trigger unrest,” he said. “Israel, on the other hand, benefits from a weak and divided Syria.”
Despite the Gaza ceasefire, analysts believe that instability in As-Suwayda, unresolved local disputes, and the overlapping presence of Turkish and Israeli forces all make a comprehensive settlement unlikely in the near term. The best achievable outcome for now, they say, might be limited de-escalation and border stabilisation rather than a full security accord.
Both Israel and Syria remain firm on their positions: Tel Aviv insists on keeping its forces on Mount Hermon and maintaining full sovereignty over the Golan Heights, while Damascus demands international guarantees, Israeli withdrawal from all territory captured after December 8, and non-interference in its internal affairs, including those in As-Suwayda.
