In the past decades, several Arab countries witnessed uprisings and protest movements that demanded freedom, social justice, and a transition towards democratic systems, away from militarisation and authoritarian rule. These popular movements succeeded in bringing down some long-standing regimes, in power for decades, yet they soon confronted what is commonly described as the “deep state”: hidden networks and influential groups embedded within state institutions, with the capacity to shape and control critical decisions.
There are numerous examples of the effectiveness of the deep state in maintaining the core structures of regimes and reconstituting them, even when faced with popular revolutions. This became evident after the outbreak of the “Arab Spring”, when military and security establishments managed to contain democratic transitions and redirect political processes towards reproducing authoritarian systems in more rigid forms, with changes in individuals but continuity in institutions.
In this regard, Syrian journalist Imad al-Mustafa told +963 that the region’s societies are experiencing “a profound crisis, caused by the ongoing confrontation between deep state structures and the popular drive for political and democratic transition.” He explained that these entrenched networks control the state through security and military institutions, the manipulation of the judiciary to legitimise political repression, and the management of public opinion. More critically, they form alliances with local, regional, and even international political, economic, and military actors to preserve the status quo and block genuine transformation.
Al-Mustafa further attributes the failure of democratic transitions in the region to several additional factors: weak civil society, the absence of rooted democratic culture, fragile or non-existent political parties, and external interventions. These conditions, he noted, are rooted in the authoritarian environments of these states, where the overriding aim has been to ensure the endurance of deep state influence, even amid changes of government.
Read also: Does a Deep State Exist in Syria? History, Power, and the Transitional Era
He also stressed the importance of rethinking approaches to democratic transition considering failed experiments at building participatory, civilian states. This, Al-Mustafa argued, requires the establishment of independent national institutions capable of confronting the deep state, reforming the security and military apparatus, ensuring transitional justice, holding perpetrators of violations accountable, enforcing the rule of law, and strengthening civil society as a primary mechanism of oversight.
Since the mid-twentieth century, most Arab countries have been dominated by military and bureaucratic regimes that shaped the political landscape, creating complex networks and invisible institutions with the authority to take critical domestic and foreign policy decisions, without adherence to democratic principles or transparency.
Political researcher Firas Yahya explains that “the deep state exists in many parts of the world, but in Arab countries it appears more interconnected and powerful. Here, political, military, and economic interests are intertwined, and decisions are made away from civil society and citizens.”
Yahya adds, in his remarks to +963, that deep states are not exclusive to authoritarian regimes. They can also emerge in democracies, where individuals and institutions act covertly to influence public policies. Their influence often extends into all fields; politics, the economy, security institutions, the media, and public services.
He further noted that in the Arab region, the main structures of the deep state remain highly present and effective. Although their tactics may shift in response to local, regional, or international conditions, they continue to receive external support that sustains their survival and influence. This was clear in the aftermath of the collapse of several Arab regimes, where systems were reconstituted by replacing figures while maintaining the fundamental state apparatus.
