Israel has sharply intensified its campaign against Hezbollah, striking the movement’s presence in Beirut and killing Haitham Al-Tabtabai – one of its most prominent military commanders – in the southern suburbs. The assassination marks a significant escalation, signalling a broader Israeli strategy aimed at exerting maximum pressure and reshaping the balance of power in Lebanon.
The operation, carried out in an area widely regarded as the organisation’s core stronghold, reflects an ongoing Israeli approach – sustained, incremental and designed to neutralise perceived threats before they mature. For Lebanon’s government, the strike adds urgent pressure to assert exclusive control over the country’s weapons and prevent any actor from undermining national security.
At the same time, President Joseph Aoun used his first Independence Day address as a civilian head of state to unveil a five-point initiative with both military and diplomatic dimensions. He asserted the Lebanese Army’s readiness to take over all contested positions along the southern border and called for Lebanon to move immediately before the Quintet Committee with a clear, time-bound plan for the handover.
The second point set out the army’s willingness to assume control once all violations and hostilities cease and Israeli forces withdraw from all disputed locations. Third, he proposed assigning the Quintet Committee a monitoring role south of the Litani River to ensure full Lebanese state authority. Fourth, he announced Lebanon’s readiness for internationally backed negotiations – under UN, US or joint sponsorship – to establish a permanent cessation of cross-border attacks. Finally, Aoun called for international sponsorship and support to rebuild war-damaged areas and strengthen the Lebanese Army, with firm timelines to guarantee that all weapons outside state authority are eliminated across the country.
Read also: No State Under Two Powers: Lebanon’s Struggle Against Hezbollah’s Grip
Weakening Hezbollah
Lebanese writer Hanna Saleh told +963 that Israel’s response to Aoun’s initiative “did not take long”. A wave of airstrikes followed almost immediately, hitting southern Lebanon as well as the central and northern Bekaa, culminating in the assassination in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Saleh noted that an Israeli security source openly stated that the “weakening phase” of Hezbollah must be completed before the end of the year. He argued that this latest escalation forms part of a “criminal strategy” designed to eliminate any future threat deemed intolerable by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government.
Even if Israel accepts a ceasefire agreement, Saleh said, the fourth clause effectively enshrines a victor’s prerogative – granting Israel scope to intervene whenever it perceives a threat. This means Israeli strikes are likely to continue, serving long-term objectives that go far beyond Hezbollah’s stated claims about rebuilding its military capacity.
Saleh warned that the assassination of Al-Tabtabai in the heart of Beirut’s southern suburbs places Greater Beirut within Israel’s target bank – a dramatic shift that heightens the risk of a wider conflict and demands urgent action to prevent Lebanon sliding into a devastating war.
He added that the operation exposes the depth of Israel’s intelligence penetration, stretching “from the top of the Revolutionary Guard’s hierarchy to the last fighter in Hezbollah”. In his view, it also undercuts the organisation’s narrative about restoring its capabilities or repairing its compromised security apparatus, which has suffered repeated blows affecting its senior command.
The accumulation of dangers, he stressed, places a heavy responsibility on the Lebanese authorities to enforce the 5 August decision requiring all weapons to be under state control. “This phase demands actions, not statements,” Saleh concluded. “Protecting the country and safeguarding civilian lives requires decisive measures.”
Washington’s Position
US President Donald Trump said that Hezbollah in Lebanon is “not in a good place”, revealing that he intends to invite President Aoun to the White House soon. Trump claimed the Middle East is witnessing “real peace for the first time”, adding that reducing Iran’s influence had removed a “dark cloud” from the region and that a deal with Tehran “may be possible”.
In a meeting with New York’s mayor, Zahran Mamdani, Trump reiterated that Hezbollah “has remained a problem in Lebanon” and that his administration is working with various actors to “achieve peace in the region”.
Read also: Ceasefire at Risk: Lebanon Back in the Danger Zone
Long-term Accumulation
Lebanese political figure Charbel Jabbour told +963 that nothing fundamentally new has emerged – the confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah has persisted for more than two years, with no signs of a shift in trajectory. The Lebanese government, he said, must take a clear and decisive stance on disarming Hezbollah, arguing that continued inaction leaves Lebanon hostage to an entrenched and destructive status quo.
Lebanon’s current predicament, Jabbour added, is not sudden but the result of long-standing dynamics shaped by Iran’s dominance and its ability to dictate Lebanon’s military decisions through an armed, non-state organisation. He noted that Hezbollah has effectively overturned the Taif Agreement since the 1990s, despite both Lebanese and international resolutions – notably 1559 and 1701 – requiring the disarmament of militias.
Without concrete steps, Jabbour warned, the confrontation will remain open-ended and ever more destabilising, replacing the state’s institutions with a parallel authority and deepening Lebanon’s political paralysis.
Regarding Trump’s invitation to Aoun, Jabbour said the matter rests solely with Washington. For Lebanon, the priority should be implementing obligations already laid out in the president’s oath and the ministerial statement. Executing the decisions on exclusive state control over arms, he argued, would remove any justification for American or external pressure.
For now, Jabbour concluded, Lebanon continues to avoid its duties – for numerous reasons – but the essential requirement is simple: the state must enforce its own constitution.
A Dangerous Warning
Lebanese writer Assaad Bechara told +963 that the killing of Al-Tabtabai represents Israel’s “most serious warning yet”. Diplomatic sources, he said, emphasise that the operation was not merely an intelligence success but a turning point in the rules of engagement.
The coming period, Bechara warned, could involve days or weeks of fighting, with a precarious balance between attempts to contain the situation and pressures that could lead to uncontrolled escalation.
Hezbollah, he argued, faces significant difficulties in responding – not only due to the strategic calculus but also because the balance of power has shifted dramatically. Israel currently holds the initiative, raising the threshold and operating with wide technological and intelligence superiority. Hezbollah knows that a major response could trigger a confrontation it cannot afford, while a limited one would change nothing.
Bechara added that the Lebanese state has once again become a “political commentator” – issuing statements rather than exercising authority. With institutions paralysed, the government is observing events rather than shaping them.
As for Aoun’s impending visit to Washington, Bechara described it as a decisive moment that will reveal the true stance of Lebanon’s leadership – “black or white, with no room for grey”. Critical questions will be on the table: the future of military relations with the US, Lebanon’s regional positioning and the state’s capacity to control its own security decisions. Any hesitation, he warned, will be interpreted as weakness.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reinforced this posture, vowing to continue doing “whatever is necessary” to prevent Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza from rebuilding their capabilities.
Retired Egyptian Major General Sayed Ghoneim – visiting professor at NATO and the Brussels Military Academy – told +963 that Israel is pursuing two parallel objectives: undermining recent statements by Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem about the organisation’s continued strength and preventing Hezbollah from restoring its military capacity.
The broader aim, he said, is to eliminate Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon’s political and military landscape, while preparing the regional environment for a potential strike on Iran. This includes neutralising possible interventions by Hezbollah or Yemen’s Houthis and managing the Syrian theatre.
Ghoneim concluded that Israel is simultaneously seeking to freeze the situation in Gaza in any workable form, while further weakening Hezbollah ahead of a possible confrontation with Iran – a strategy bolstered by strong support from President Trump.
