On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump arrived at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv at the start of a tour that also includes Egypt, to take part in the international summit on the Gaza Strip held in Sharm El-Sheikh. This comes following the announcement of a ceasefire in Gaza last Friday under Trump’s plan, which is being described as an essential and pivotal step toward ending a war that has raged for more than two years, leaving behind tens of thousands of casualties and widespread devastation. The question now is whether this marks the beginning of a new phase that could encompass the entire Middle East, in line with a vision promoted by the U.S. administration since the beginning of this year.
The Beginning of a Peace Era
In a speech before the Israeli Knesset, Trump declared, “The region will live in peace forever. The end of the war in Gaza is not just the end of a war but the end of an era of death.” He added that he had “ended eight wars in eight months and will add this one to the list with the return of the hostages.” Trump described the present as “a golden age and a remarkable phase for Israel and the Middle East, similar to the United States,” noting that “after two years, twenty hostages will return to their families and twenty-eight will be laid to rest in their homeland.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in his address before the Knesset, “Now is the time for peace and to end the war. The coming years will be years of peace inside and outside Israel. We extend our hand to all who seek peace with us.” He acknowledged “the crucial role played by President Trump in the return of the hostages” and thanked him “for recognizing Israel’s historical rights in the West Bank and its sovereignty over the Golan Heights.” Netanyahu added, “President Trump and I are committed to peace. We will achieve it together as we did with the Abraham Accords. The U.S. president’s peace proposal has gained global acceptance, ended the war, and fulfilled all of Israel’s objectives.”
Trump later headed to the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh to participate in the international summit on Gaza. The Egyptian presidency announced that President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and his U.S. counterpart would co-chair the summit, which gathers leaders from over twenty countries. The summit aims to end the war in Gaza and open a new chapter of regional security and stability in light of President Trump’s vision for peace in the Middle East and his broader efforts to resolve global conflicts.
Read also: After Hamas: Israel’s Eyes Turn to Syria
Mediation Through Power and Conflict Management
Hassan Jaber, a political analyst based in Jordan, believes that President Trump’s plan for Gaza has achieved partial success, as it is based on the principle of “mediation through power,” where a strong actor pressures both sides toward an agreement. However, he argues that the deal falls under the concept of “conflict management” rather than resolution, since the initial steps, such as the partial Israeli withdrawal and the exchange of captives, are clear and straightforward, but key issues remain unresolved. These include the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state and international recognition, which are the core of the conflict.
Jaber adds that “expectations should not be too high regarding the agreement’s ability to resolve the Palestinian issue. It is an important step toward returning to the situation before October 7, 2023, and that is likely the most it can achieve. It halts the fighting without addressing a final settlement.” Speaking to +963, he noted that “Hamas will promote the deal as a realistic outcome within its current constraints, though without imposing specific conditions.”
Doubts About Israel’s Intentions
Lawyer and political analyst Amin Mohammad Bashir, based in Beirut, said, “One group believes that President Trump’s plan will succeed and continue in Gaza given the international guarantees it carries. Another believes that the plan will end after its first phase, once Israel retrieves its hostages from Hamas, doubting Tel Aviv’s intentions to stop there.”
He told +963 that “Israel’s permission for displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in Gaza is one indication of its seriousness in fully implementing the agreement.” However, he noted that “Tel Aviv will not allow any armed presence for Hamas in Gaza’s future. The movement could, however, exist as a political entity or through individuals. Many Arab states also believe the Palestinian people have been drawn into a war of attrition, and therefore prefer that Hamas have no future military role.”
Last week, President Trump told reporters that reaching an agreement to end the Gaza war would lay the groundwork for lasting peace in the Middle East. He said Gaza would be rebuilt, and that Iran had expressed willingness to work toward peace, with his administration ready to cooperate. Trump added that “the death of 70,000 people in Gaza was a major act of retribution for Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.”
Read also: The Middle East: Clashing Tribes and America’s Ambiguous Maps
A Fragile Agreement
Jassem Al-Ghurabi, a political and strategic affairs researcher based in Baghdad, believes “the agreement reached in Gaza is fragile. Once Hamas hands over its weapons, the Israeli captives, and the bodies, Israel will turn against it. Israel will not leave Gaza without Hamas’s full surrender.” He emphasized in comments to +963 that “the two-state solution is highly unlikely. Palestinian territories will be demilitarized and governed by a joint international and Islamic administration.”
Hamas’s Weapons
Jaber argues that “Hamas will continue to exist as a movement and now differentiates between surrendering weapons and placing them under control. There are complex details, such as which weapons will be turned in and which will be deactivated. The key question is whether Hamas will accept total defeat, especially since the Palestinian Authority seems unable to fill the administrative vacuum that Hamas’s institutions previously occupied in Gaza. Therefore, the movement will likely transition into political work without completely relinquishing its weapons, as disarming Gaza remains one of the most challenging issues due to the area’s terrain, tunnels, and hidden arsenals that the Israeli army failed to destroy.”
He added that “Hamas will attempt to return through political engagement, promoting Palestinian national reconciliation. The issue of its weapons will likely remain postponed until after reconstruction begins.” Jaber stressed that “the situation in Gaza calls for a genuine Palestinian reconciliation and the use of this moment to reactivate the role of the Palestinian Authority with real Arab support to assume its responsibilities in both Gaza and the West Bank.”
Late last September, President Trump unveiled his plan for Gaza, which calls for an immediate end to the war and the complete disarmament of Hamas. Under the plan, Israeli forces would withdraw in phases while Arab and Islamic forces take responsibility for dealing with Hamas and dismantling its military infrastructure according to a set timeline. The plan also establishes a new international supervisory body named the “Peace Council,” chaired by Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair as a member.
Trump stated that the “Peace Council” would form a new government in Gaza with the participation of Palestinian figures and other parties but without Hamas’s involvement. He expressed his belief that Iran might one day join the Abraham Accords, noting that he had personally negotiated their initial signing.
Al-Ghurabi said that “all remaining Hamas leaders will provide guarantees not to engage in military or political activity. They will receive international assurances of safety and relocate to countries such as Qatar, Turkey, or Iran. However, they will neither return to Gaza nor participate in any political or military roles again.”
On September 28, the Axios website reported that Trump’s plan includes the release of around 250 Palestinians serving life sentences and approximately 2,000 detainees held since October 7, 2023. It also envisions the creation of an interim administration for Gaza comprising an international and Arab council with representation from the Palestinian Authority and an independent technocratic government of Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas. Additionally, it calls for forming a joint security force made up of Palestinians and Arab and Islamic military personnel, with funding from these countries for Gaza’s governance, reconstruction, and development, as well as Hamas’s disarmament, amnesty for members who lay down their arms, and safe passage for those who choose to leave.
