In recent months, the Syrian coast has witnessed a noticeable escalation in security tensions and popular protests, reopening the file of this sensitive region at both the domestic and regional levels and raising fundamental questions about the nature of what is happening and its deeper causes. Between official narratives that attribute the unrest to the pursuit of what they describe as remnants of the former regime, and other readings that see it as an expression of a complex crisis in which security, economic, and political dimensions intersect, the Syrian coast emerges as an arena of long accumulated grievances that have not been addressed, alongside current pressures that threaten its fragile stability.
Since last March, cities and towns along the coast have experienced repeated protests and incidents of violence, most notably in the city of Latakia, where the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights accused General Security forces of using live ammunition to disperse demonstrators. These developments coincided with a continuous deterioration in living conditions and growing fears among residents, in a scene that reveals a clear overlap between local factors and regional and international tensions.
Is the crisis security-related?
Syrian researcher Ali al-Besh believes, in statements to +963, that the security dimension constitutes one of the main pillars of the Syrian coastal crisis. He explains that the presence of extremist factions in the area, which declare most of its inhabitants unbelievers and see no restraint in attacking them, has contributed to creating an extremely dangerous security environment.
He notes that this environment has disrupted daily life and exacerbated fear and instability, on top of what is already disrupted by the country’s broader economic crisis.
This view aligns with that of Syrian writer Darwish Khalifa, who states in remarks to +963 that the core of the problem on the coast is fundamentally security and societal in nature.
He explains that the coastal population has been living since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in a state of anxiety and fear, fueled by concerns of retaliation against the Alawite community, amid a collective memory burdened by the practices of the former regime and its security apparatus against Syrians.
The economic dimension, cause or consequence?
On the economic level, researcher Ali al-Besh explains that the living crisis on the Syrian coast is directly linked to the policies of the current government, particularly the dismissal of large numbers of employees on sectarian grounds and the dissolution of the army and police institutions, which led to many coastal residents losing their sources of income and pensions.
He considers that this reality has contributed to an almost complete paralysis of economic life and has resulted in a catastrophic humanitarian situation.
Darwish Khalifa reinforces this perspective by noting that most coastal residents, especially Alawites, historically relied on government jobs as their primary source of income, amid the former regime’s tolerance of corruption and bribery.
He adds that dozens of reports indicate that the percentage of Syrians living below the poverty line has exceeded 90 percent over the past fifteen years, making any additional economic shock sufficient to ignite social tensions.
For his part, Syrian human rights lawyer Ibrahim Abdulrahman states to +963 that job dismissals, the absence of security, and the failure to pursue a path of transitional justice together created an environment hostile to economic stability.
He stresses that ignoring the legitimate concerns of coastal residents, particularly those of the Alawite community, has deepened the sense of exclusion and reproduced the crisis through intertwined economic and social dimensions.
Read also: Syrian Coast: Assad Regime’s Remnant Base or Media Exaggeration?
The internal political dimension
In reading the internal political dimension, al-Besh points out that the extremist public discourse promoted by the current authority, which grants preference to Sunni communities and elevates a narrative of Sunni grievance, has contributed to creating a pattern of oppression or discrimination against the majority of coastal residents who are Alawites.
He believes that this discourse has deepened societal fractures and transformed the crisis from demands related to living conditions into a crisis of identity and security.
In the same context, Khalifa draws attention to the emergence of a new political dimension represented by calls for a federal administrative structure that would limit the ability of the central authority to intervene in local affairs.
He argues that the solution does not lie in factional conflict, but rather in transitioning to partisan political competition under the parliament’s dome and within local councils, and in adopting political participation as a consensual option during the transitional phase.
As for Abdulrahman, he links the worsening of the crisis to the absence of political dialogue and a crisis of trust between the authority and society, affirming that the failure of the current authority to deal impartially with the problems of Syrian communities will lead to postponing crises rather than resolving them.
Is the crisis internal or external?
Al-Besh believes that the roots of the Syrian coastal crisis are not confined to the domestic sphere, but extend to external factors related to the geopolitical struggle over the Mediterranean coastline.
He points to Israeli-Russian-American opposition to any Turkish influence on the Syrian coast, coupled with Turkey’s insistence on not abandoning this region, which has made it an open arena of conflict due to its strategic importance, particularly with regard to gas pipelines and maritime transport.
For his part, Abdulrahman warns that this fragile situation tempts several states to intervene in Syrian affairs, potentially leading to the victory of one side at the expense of another and reproducing the conflict with new tools, in the absence of a comprehensive internal settlement.
One crisis or intertwined crises?
Those interviewed agree that the Syrian coastal crisis is a complex one in which security, economic, and political factors, both internal and external, are intertwined. Abdulrahman argues that security directly affects the economy, the economy in turn reflects on social stability, and politics casts its heavy shadow over all these levels, making any single approach an inadequate solution.
In this context, al-Besh emphasizes that a solution cannot begin without addressing the security file, whether through the withdrawal of extremist factions, the establishment of authority that does not persecute Alawites or adopt an ideology hostile to them, or through the formation of a participatory government in which Alawites have a genuine role that enables them to protect their areas themselves. He believes that any economic solution will remain subordinate to the security solution, not emerging independently from it.
In conclusion, the Syrian coast today appears to be a real test of the transitional authority’s ability to manage diversity, build trust, and present a comprehensive approach that goes beyond partial solutions. The crisis, as observers conclude, is not the crisis of a sector or a region, but an enlarged mirror of the crisis of the Syrian state as a whole.
