A wave of protests has erupted across Turkey following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. With daily demonstrations swelling to nearly a million participants, questions are growing about how this unrest might reverberate in neighboring Syria.
From his prison cell in Silivri, İmamoğlu called on his supporters to “continue the fight for justice, democracy, and a better future for Turkey.” Meanwhile, the ruling coalition is taking a hard line. Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, warned of unleashing government loyalists to confront the protests—echoing the civilian crackdown on the 2016 coup attempt.
“If people take to the streets again, what’s to stop a new clash like July 15? Are we inviting chaos into the country?” Bahçeli warned.
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The Real Story Behind the Arrest
The protests began on March 19, following the Turkish government’s arrest and detention of İmamoğlu. The demonstrations mark a broad public rejection of what many see as politically motivated charges against Erdoğan’s most prominent electoral rival.
In response, Turkish authorities imposed bans on public gatherings across Istanbul, followed by similar restrictions in Ankara and Izmir. Major roads and rail lines were shut down, and access to social media platforms like X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok was severely restricted. Non-government media outlets faced broadcast fines and censorship from the Turkish Radio and Television Supreme Council (RTÜK).
On March 23, İmamoğlu was arrested and detained along with 100 other opposition figures, facing corruption charges. He was transferred to Marmara Prison amid growing calls for his release and for early presidential elections. At 54, İmamoğlu is a prominent politician from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and has served as the mayor of Istanbul since 2019. He scored significant electoral victories against Erdoğan’s allies in the 2019 and 2024 municipal elections, securing CHP control over most of Turkey’s major cities. As a result, he has come to be seen as Erdoğan’s most serious political rival.
However, İmamoğlu has stepped up his criticism of President Erdoğan’s administration, prompting a series of legal actions against him. On March 19, 2025, Turkish authorities arrested İmamoğlu on charges including corruption and providing support to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). While his arrest does not legally bar him from running for president or being elected, a conviction on any of the charges would disqualify him from candidacy.
President Erdoğan’s current term is set to end in 2028. Under the existing rules, he cannot seek re-election. However, he could call for early elections or attempt to amend the constitution to extend his time in office
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Polarization and Impact
Political analyst Mahmoud Alloush, writing in the fifth issue of “+963” argues that Turkey is entering a prolonged phase of internal polarization. While the impact of domestic unrest on Syria may be limited, he notes that the Syrian refugee issue remains a pressure point for the opposition.
Alloush sees little chance of Ankara altering its foreign policy toward Syria—unless Turkey undergoes a complete regime change, which he deems unlikely. In fact, should Erdoğan consolidate power once again, Turkey’s role in Syria may only intensify.
The political analyst argues that the current unrest in Turkey is unlikely to shift Ankara’s foreign policy in Syria—unless there is a full-scale change in the political system, which he considers highly improbable. He predicts Erdoğan will ultimately prevail over the opposition, which would likely translate into renewed momentum for Turkey’s involvement in Syria.
For his part, writer and political analyst Adi Ramadan emphasizes the importance of examining the broader geopolitical landscape, especially in Syria. He believes the Turkish opposition is incapable of toppling the government, having squandered multiple past opportunities to do so.
In comments to the fifth issue of +963, Ramadan stated: “Major powers, particularly the United States, have little interest in changing the government in Turkey. Even if the opposition were to succeed, it would impact the de facto authority in Syria—an authority that emerged under Turkish sponsorship and with coordination between the four dominant powers in Syria: Turkey, Russia, Israel, and the U.S.”
He added, “If the Turkish opposition proves unable to act, it won’t change the facts on the ground in Syria. Turkey’s goal is clear: to maintain control and influence through a ‘government of fait accompli.’ The Turkish penetration and growing presence in Syria speak for themselves.”
Read also: Turkey’s Expanding Role in Syria: How Far Will Its Influence Go?
Mahmoud Al-Afandi, Secretary-General of the Syrian Popular Diplomacy Movement, emphasized that any upheaval in Turkey would have immediate consequences for Syria.
“Turkey hosts a large population of Syrian refugees. Its government plays a pivotal political and military role in Damascus. Any major changes in Ankara will inevitably ripple across Syria, possibly triggering prolonged conflict along the border,” Afandi said in an interview with “+963.”
He concluded that Turkey, like the rest of the world, is trying to achieve political stability, which, in turn, benefits Syria. There is a direct connection between the two neighboring countries.
