Since its military intervention in Syria in 2016, Turkey has steadily expanded its influence, supporting the formation of successive political and military bodies to the extent of assuming a role similar to that of a guardian. It has cultivated strong relations with opponents of Bahar al-Assad, and after taking control of several Syrian regions under the pretext of fighting ISIS, it has established dominance in northern Syria, exerting influence over some opposition factions both politically and militarily.
Despite the downfall of the ousted Syrian regime in certain areas and Turkey’s establishment of the “safe zone” it sought in 2019, Ankara has no intention of withdrawing from Syrian territory, citing the need to ensure stability in the country.
Political analyst Javad Gok, based in Istanbul, stated in the fourth issue of the printed edition of +963, that Turkey does not intend to withdraw from Syria at this time, as there are no indications of such a move.
Turkey is closely monitoring the new Syrian administration led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the military developments in the country, particularly regarding the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with which Ankara has tense relations.
Gok noted that Ankara will continue tracking the SDF until it expands its presence into northern and eastern Syria, which is currently under SDF control. He added that Turkey might decide to withdraw if the Syrian state fully reasserts control over the entire country, thereby alleviating its concerns.
The new Syrian administration has signed an agreement with the SDF consisting of eight clauses, stipulating the latter’s integration into the Syrian state before the end of this year.
Turkish forces in northern Syria are stationed at observation points in the Aleppo and Idlib countryside, while Ankara is reportedly considering establishing its largest military base near the city of Palmyra in central Syria.
According to Reuters, the Syrian Interim Government has allocated a sovereign military base to Turkey in the countryside of Homs province, specifically in Palmyra, as part of new military arrangements between Damascus and Ankara.
The planned Turkish base in Palmyra is expected to be comparable in size to the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany, making it one of Ankara’s largest military installations beyond its borders. Turkey has already informed major global powers and the United Nations that it considers its base in Palmyra to be “sovereign Turkish territory”.
