Sarkis Qassarjian
Azerbaijan has recently emerged as an unexpected player in Middle Eastern diplomacy, leveraging its neutrality and carefully balanced ties with rival powers to mediate conflicts and broker energy deals.
Baku hosted Syrian President Ahmad Al-Shara and facilitated high-level meetings between Syrian and Israeli delegations. These talks aimed to de-escalate tensions and were accompanied by a landmark initiative: a plan to supply natural gas to energy-starved Syria.
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A Rising Alliance Reshapes the Region
The Azerbaijan–Israel alliance, particularly in energy and cyber security, has deepened mutual trust and opened doors to broader regional influence. After decades of post-Soviet isolation, Azerbaijan is stepping into new roles.
This cooperation peaked in 2023 when Azerbaijan opened its embassy in Tel Aviv, formalizing years of discreet collaboration. In 2024, the two countries sealed a $320 million arms deal.
Israel supplies Baku with drones and advanced defense systems, including the Iron Dome. In return, Azerbaijan provides over 40% of Israel’s oil needs and offers high-value intelligence on Iran, making it a crucial strategic outpost for Tel Aviv.
Bilateral trade hit $3.2 billion in 2024, with Israeli investments pouring into energy and tech. Despite regional tensions, Israeli tourism to Azerbaijan surged by 92% in early 2025.
Despite its borders with Russia and Iran, Baku maintains strong ties with NATO and Israel. It has hosted secret Turkish-Israeli talks since 2016. Even former U.S. President Donald Trump praised Baku’s pro-Israel stance on Truth Social.
This relationship challenges Iran’s narrative of a unified Islamic front against Israel, potentially isolating Tehran and allowing Israel deeper integration into the Caspian trade corridor. It also helps Azerbaijan distance itself from Russian political dependency.
Read also: Ankara and Tel Aviv Want Syria, Not the Syrians
Azerbaijan Redraws the Energy Map
Syrian President Ahmad Al-Shara’s visit to Baku on July 12, 2025, marked a pivotal moment. The two nations signed a gas export agreement: 2 billion cubic meters annually via the TANAP pipeline through Turkey.
This aims to ease Syria’s worsening energy crisis while subtly reducing Iranian influence by creating new economic interdependencies.
Simultaneously, Baku hosted secret Syrian-Israeli talks, paving the way for U.S.-brokered talks on southern Syria, especially after deadly unrest in Sweida. Ankara soon announced that gas flows from Azerbaijan to Syria had begun on August 2.
This trilateral cooperation, Syria, Azerbaijan, Turkey, also includes a $200 million Azerbaijani investment to rehabilitate the Port of Latakia, in partnership with Turkish firm Limak Holding. Reports suggest Washington may make an exception for Azerbaijan with Caesar Act sanctions on Syria in exchange for security guarantees for Israel.
Baku seems intent on building an energy corridor from the Caspian to the Mediterranean, involving Syria, Turkey, and Israel. The project would require U.S. approval, Gulf cooperation, and careful sidestepping of Russian interests.
The Azerbaijani Version of Qatar?
Azerbaijan appears to be emulating Qatar: using its energy exports and diplomatic neutrality to play an outsized regional role. It benefits from internal social cohesion and a rare trust from mutually hostile powers.
However, Azerbaijan’s GDP per capita is just a tenth of Qatar’s, limiting its ability to match Doha’s influence, especially in reconstruction funding.
Moreover, its growing ties with Israel may eventually provoke Turkish caution. Ankara still sees the Middle East as its strategic backyard. Meanwhile, Moscow remains wary, especially after the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft and Baku’s demands for an official apology and compensation.
Baku’s Syria gamble is bold. It seeks to expand its influence through energy and diplomacy, backed by alliances with Israel and Turkey. This strategy challenges the Iranian-Russian grip on Syria and the Caucasus, at a time when global powers are retreating.
Yet despite short-term gains, Azerbaijan’s ambitions are vulnerable, limited resources, complex geopolitics, and clashing interests may halt its rise. Success will depend on Baku’s ability to skillfully navigate between Washington and Tel Aviv, without alienating Ankara or other key players.
