ISIS emerged as one of the most dangerous phenomena to directly shape Syria’s political, social, and security landscape. Its rise was the result of a complex overlap of internal and external factors, including armed conflict, regional and international intervention, and the exploitation of economic, social, and ideological crises.
For a period, Syria became fertile ground for ISIS expansion, particularly as the conflict widened and stability collapsed. The group imposed control over vast areas and presented itself as an alternative power, using an extremist religious discourse built on violence and exclusion. Its presence left deep scars on Syrian society, from the breakdown of social cohesion to mass displacement and widespread destruction of infrastructure.
After the territorial defeat of ISIS in Syria was announced in 2019, many believed the group no longer posed a real threat. Reality proved otherwise. Like other extremist organisations, ISIS has shown a flexible structure, adapting to change by shifting from territorial control to covert operations. It has taken advantage of security gaps and ongoing political and social crises.
Today, ISIS operates in a very different phase from the one in which it declared its so-called “state”. It relies on scattered cells and limited attacks aimed at maintaining instability and proving it still exists. The group exploits disorder in certain areas, weak security coordination, and the conditions in camps and prisons holding thousands of former fighters and their families. These environments remain vulnerable to the reproduction of extremist ideology, amid fears of security breaches – as seen in the recent Palmyra attack that killed Syrian and American soldiers.
In this interview with +963, security expert and retired brigadier Adnan Al-Kinani discusses the changing nature of the war against ISIS in Syria, the group’s continued presence in the desert, and the evolving role of the international coalition in combating terrorism.
Has the nature of the war against ISIS in Syria changed?
In the past, ISIS was supported by several countries and operated with great freedom. It understood the rules of the game inside Syria, enjoyed safe environments, and had steady funding. Today, the situation is completely different. The group has been weakened after sustained pressure from the international coalition, which has gained extensive experience in dealing with ISIS.
There are now international forces supporting Syrian security forces, and ISIS is fighting on multiple fronts. Its methods of combat, financing, and movement have become fully exposed to Western intelligence services, the international coalition, and the United States. Washington now understands exactly how the group operates. ISIS has lost its basic foundations in Syria and no longer enjoys any form of protection. It is being fought both internally and internationally. The war against it has become far more intense, and this may be a sign of its approaching end inside Syria.
Read also: Has the War Against ISIS Changed?
Are the United States and the international coalition moving towards eliminating ISIS completely in the region?
Yes. Recent movements and military operation carried out by US forces under the name “Hawkeye Strike” clearly show that the American administration knows precisely where ISIS is located. The strikes were highly effective, destroying headquarters, weapons, and storage sites that the group believed were hidden and secure. US intelligence managed to uncover these sites and target them in the desert.
ISIS now appears to be breathing its last. The coalition and the United States are applying new rules in dealing with the group, based on joint and coordinated action with the new Syrian administration. This has become evident in several important and effective operations carried out in recent weeks.
Why does the Syrian desert remain fertile ground for ISIS activity years after its defeat was declared?
The foundations of the group were established in these areas. There are safe havens and actors who cover ISIS movements, turning the desert into a launch point for attacks across different regions. The desert is what remains of ISIS territory.
Security and intelligence activity there is relatively weaker than in other areas. These regions are vast, sparsely populated, and socially closed, making infiltration extremely difficult. Dealing with such wide areas requires time and sustained effort. Addressing the group ideologically in the desert is very difficult, and these areas will remain ticking time bombs that could explode at any moment. Military action there is easier than intellectual or ideological confrontation.
How do you view the continued existence of ISIS prisons and camps for the families of its members in north-east Syria?
They are indeed complex files. Many people there have been psychologically manipulated. These places are extremely dangerous – I have previously described them as minefields that could explode at any moment. Handling these camps and prisons is very difficult and requires specialists in psychology and rehabilitation, as well as international and humanitarian organisations capable of dealing with such sensitive cases.
I also believe that transferring some ISIS families to Iraq, particularly to Jaz’a camp, is extremely dangerous, as they face strong social rejection.
The Palmyra attack resulted from infiltration within security forces. How serious is this threat?
The Palmyra attack targeted a meeting of Syrian and American military and security leaders. The attacker appeared to be someone who had joined the Syrian security forces and attempted to enter the meeting room to carry out a suicide bombing. This is extremely dangerous for counter-terrorism efforts.
Such breaches weaken security operations and strengthen ISIS’s ability to conduct rapid and impactful attacks. Suicide operations are a standard tactic for ISIS, and this is where its danger lies. It is essential that individuals carrying extremist ideology are not allowed within Syrian military and security institutions.
Can the fight against terrorism and ISIS help unite Syrian factions?
Yes, if there is effective media messaging showing that fighting ISIS leads to security and stability, and clearly exposes the group’s extremist ideology socially, religiously, morally, and militarily. It is also vital to ensure that members of the Syrian army and security services are free from extremist ideas.
There must be a shift towards ideological confrontation. A purely military war may produce negative results, but an intellectual war can unify Syrian society and dismantle ISIS from within. Defeating the ideology is more important than defeating the fighters.
