Syria is facing one of its most complex crises since the outbreak of war, as drought intersects with economic collapse and international sanctions to create a suffocating mix that threatens the food security of millions. Wheat production has fallen sharply, while the Syrian government struggles to secure the country’s needs through imports amid mounting financial strain and political pressure.
At the same time, warnings from international organizations underscore the severity of the challenge ahead. Bread, the staple food for Syrians, is more threatened than ever. With dwindling resources, fragmented government planning, and reliance on unstable foreign aid, fears are growing that the country could slip into an even more dangerous phase. The pressing question: can Syria overcome this crisis before it transforms into widespread famine?
The United Nations World Food Programme has warned of a worsening food security crisis in Syria, saying the country faces an unprecedented emergency following a 40% drop in wheat output due to the latest drought. The agency stressed that more than three million Syrians are suffering from severe hunger, amid a sharp decline in local supplies.
According to Reuters, a Syrian agriculture ministry official said the government will need to import about 2.55 million tons of wheat this year to meet domestic demand after a weak harvest badly hit by drought.
The official added that the state was able to purchase only 373,500 tons from local farmers, revealing a vast gap between actual production and national needs, further tightening pressure on Syria’s food security.
Russia had long been Syria’s largest wheat supplier. But Moscow sharply reduced shipments after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime late last year, citing delayed payments and a lack of trust in the new government.
In June, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that Syria faces a shortfall of about 2.73 million tons of wheat this year, with local production expected to fall to around 1.2 million tons, 40% less than the previous year. The agency warned that half the country’s population could be affected by the drought’s consequences.
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Drought and Falling Prices Threaten Food Security
Syrian economist and academic Dr. Ammar al-Yousef warned in an interview with +963 that the ongoing drought has sharply reduced output of strategic crops, most importantly wheat. He said production has dropped by as much as 60% due to multiple factors, including the government’s low procurement price, which discourages farmers from planting the crop.
Al-Yousef noted that farmers face additional challenges: soaring fuel prices for cultivation, high harvesting costs, and government delays in receiving crops, all of which deter wheat farming. This decline, he stressed, threatens bread, the primary staple for Syrians.
As for government measures, al-Yousef criticized the lack of a clear strategy, though he pointed to an important Saudi intervention: King Salman bin Abdulaziz ordered the permanent provision of wheat for Syrians, which could help avert hunger tied to this vital commodity.
He urged the government to move quickly to diversify imports, especially from U.S. and European markets, instead of relying solely on Russia and Iran. Any delay, he warned, risks creating a real crisis in wheat availability, endangering food security in the near future.
Environmental and Geopolitical Pressures
Independent diplomat Izzat Baghdadi cautioned that environmental and geopolitical crises are now intertwined. Drought and erratic rainfall are straining shared river basins, while water is increasingly used as a tool of power amid shifting regional balances. The result, he said, is declining food output, the unravelling of agricultural structures, and faltering resource management.
Baghdadi stressed that focusing on water alone is insufficient. Instead, it must be integrated into a unified model linking agriculture and energy, prioritizing drinking water and balanced seasonal crop plans. He called for democratic farmer organizations, better marketing mechanisms through forward contracts, storage centres to reduce losses, and irrigation powered by solar or hybrid energy, along with stronger oversight of groundwater use.
He proposed creating a neutral operational body to manage critical infrastructure, shared water basin councils based on unified data, and giving farmer organizations a direct role as implementing partners.
On international involvement, Baghdadi suggested starting with a 4–6-week participatory assessment to identify legal, operational, and financial bottlenecks, as well as input gaps. This would be followed by designing “trial exits” such as joint management arrangements, blended financing, and purchase contracts tied to compliance.
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Between Famine Fears and Sanctions Pressure
Political researcher Ali Thabet Jadid told +963 from Damascus that international reports warning of famine in Syria have shocked public opinion: “Syrians never imagined the situation could deteriorate this far. Yet political conflict and drought are now bringing this nightmare back into focus.”
The government is attempting to fill the food gap through imports, but this option faces serious obstacles, including financial shortages and limited liquidity. Jadid stressed that economic sanctions remain a major barrier to accessing global markets and suppliers. The uncertainty of Syria’s political transition further deters many potential partners from engaging.
Added to this is the global wheat shortage following the war in Ukraine, which has politicized this vital commodity and turned it into a tool of pressure. The researcher argued that lifting sanctions, especially those targeting agriculture and food, would be an important step, though insufficient on its own given the collapse of other sectors and persistent difficulties in securing foreign currency.
He underscored the need to improve subsidy policies while avoiding past mistakes that drained state resources. Direct support to households, he suggested, could be an effective mechanism to curb corruption without distorting markets or fuelling black-market trade in subsidized goods. Strengthening farmer support and expanding cooperation with U.N. agencies are also essential.
Jadid added that cooperation with Russia remains unavoidable despite political pressures, but he argued that deeper ties with nearby Arab states, expanded trade agreements, and new markets would help ease the burden. Alongside this, Syria must reform and rebuild its agricultural sector.
Ultimately, he said, Syria’s food crisis is both economic and humanitarian, but at its core, it reflects a deeper political crisis. Overcoming it will require stronger ties with friendly states, coordinated efforts to counter sanctions, the establishment of support funds to provide liquidity for food needs, and a sustainable strategy to strengthen the agricultural sector.
