Over the past decade, the collapse of political regimes in the Middle East created a vacuum that enabled extremist organizations like ISIS to thrive, particularly in territories marked by weak governance and fragile security structures.
Syria became a key battleground in 2013, as ISIS took advantage of the chaos. The group’s rise marked a seismic shift in regional security, and although the Assad regime fell late last year, ISIS did not disappear. On the contrary, it has maintained its presence and continued attacks in recent months.
The situation is much the same in neighbouring Iraq. ISIS remains a serious and active threat, and both countries, long beset by war and instability, have become central theatres in the fight against the organization. Despite repeated military campaigns, ISIS persists.
As the threat resurges, calls for coordinated action between Iraq and Syria are growing louder. Shared intelligence, joint operations, and unified strategy could serve as the most effective tools in suppressing ISIS’s ambitions to regain territory and influence.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani recently stated that Baghdad is actively coordinating with the Syrian government to combat ISIS. Speaking to the Associated Press, he warned of repeating past mistakes, citing the post-2003 security vacuum in Iraq that paved the way for years of sectarian violence and the rise of militant factions.
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However, not everyone is convinced the coordination will produce lasting results. Rami Abdel Rahman, director of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told +963 that while coordination is necessary, its impact is likely to be limited.
“Most of the factions stationed along the Syria-Iraq border were previously aligned with Iran-backed groups,” he said. “And ISIS is still operational, stretching from the Israeli-occupied Golan to Iraq.”
While Rahman acknowledged that cooperation between Baghdad and Damascus could help constrain ISIS activity, he emphasized it will not eliminate the group: “We’re seeing continued ISIS operations, especially in northeastern Syria. Coordination may increase the pressure on them, but eradication is far from assured.”
In mid-June, Syrian, Iraqi, U.S., and European officials issued fresh warnings about ISIS’s resurgence. A Reuters investigation quoted 20 sources, including intelligence officers and political figures, who confirmed the group is actively regrouping, stockpiling weapons, identifying new targets, and ramping up recruitment efforts.
Despite efforts to thwart these developments, officials reported at least a dozen major plots disrupted in 2025 alone.
Security First: Iraq’s Strategic Outlook
Dr. Tareq Al-Zubaidi, professor of political science at the University of Baghdad, believes the renewed Iraq-Syria security dialogue was both expected and necessary. “Post-regime change in Syria, Iraq prioritized security relations even before re-establishing formal diplomatic ties,” he told +963.
A senior Iraqi security delegation reportedly visited Damascus immediately after Syria’s political transition, signaling a strong Iraqi interest in joint security efforts.
According to Al-Zubaidi, Iraq’s main concern is the vast and porous border shared with Syria, which facilitates smuggling, infiltration, and militant movement. “Iraq is especially vulnerable due to tribal, sectarian, and geographic overlaps. That’s why Baghdad placed security coordination with Damascus above economic or political engagement.”
He added that while full eradication of ISIS remains unlikely, meaningful collaboration could significantly weaken the group’s operations. “Even major powers like the U.S., U.K., and France have struggled to fully eliminate extremism,” he noted. “But Syria and Iraq, if aligned, can reduce ISIS’s mobility and disrupt its networks.”
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Regional Complexity and Strategic Ambiguity
Not everyone shares the optimism surrounding the announced coordination. Strategic security analyst Omar Al-Raddad warns that the extent and transparency of Iraq–Syria collaboration remain unclear.
He notes that Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Sudani has attempted to project independence from Iranian-aligned militias, particularly the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which are deeply embedded in Iraq’s political and military landscape.
“The Prime Minister’s recent absence from a key meeting between Iranian Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani and PMF leaders was a signal,” Raddad said. “It was meant to show Iraq isn’t just a pawn in the Iran–U.S. standoff.”
Still, suspicions linger in Damascus regarding Iran’s influence and its ambiguous role in fighting or facilitating extremist activity. Raddad suggests that such geopolitical complications limit the effectiveness of real coordination, “There’s still deep mistrust. What was announced may not go beyond the surface.”
