Amid mounting climate change pressures and intensifying political struggles over natural resources in the Middle East, northeastern Syria is facing a deepening water crisis that is jeopardising food, environmental, and humanitarian security in the region. As the Euphrates River’s level continues to fall to alarming lows, the situation has evolved beyond a temporary emergency, it now represents a direct threat to the region’s overall stability.
Euphrates Water Levels Plummet, Triggering Critical Warning Signs
Syria is grappling with one of the most severe water crises in its modern history, with the Euphrates River’s level plunging to unprecedented depths.
According to the General Administration of Dams under the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, the river’s flow has dropped to less than 200 cubic meters per second, far below the 500 cubic meters per second stipulated in the 1987 water-sharing agreement between Syria and Turkey.
This drastic decline is having immediate consequences, particularly on hydroelectric power generation. Output from the Euphrates Dam has been reduced to just two hours of electricity per day, while other key facilities such as the Tishreen and Baath dams have nearly ceased operations altogether.
Politics and Climate Fuel the Euphrates Crisis
The roots of the Euphrates River crisis are complex, stemming from a combination of political tensions and environmental challenges.
The Autonomous Administration has accused Turkey of intentionally restricting Syria’s water supply, worsening the crisis. These claims are backed by reports from international river monitoring committees, which indicate that water flow into Syria has declined by more than 60% compared to average levels in recent years. Turkey, for its part, attributes the shortfall to the impacts of climate change, pointing to reduced rainfall and snowmelt last winter.
However, many independent experts and international organisations assert that Turkey is actively regulating the Euphrates’ flow via its massive dam infrastructure, namely the Atatürk and Birecik dams, enabling Ankara to manage downstream water levels in line with political and strategic interests.
Shrinking Water Supply Deepens Food Insecurity in Syria’s Northeast
The drop in Euphrates water levels has severely reduced the availability of irrigated farmland in Syria’s eastern provinces, particularly Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Hasakah, regions historically dependent on the river for cultivating wheat, barley, cotton, and other key crops.
A report by the Agriculture and Irrigation Committee of the Autonomous Administration revealed that the area of cultivated land this year has shrunk by 37% compared to last season. The report also noted a surge in fallow fields and worsening soil salinity in some zones.
With the water table falling, traditional irrigation networks have been disrupted, slashing agricultural output. Compounding the crisis, dwindling dam reserves have made it increasingly difficult to generate electricity for farming and industrial use, deepening the region’s economic struggles amid ongoing power outages that now last for many hours each day.
Everyday Life Disrupted as the Euphrates Crisis Escalates
Beyond economic repercussions, the Euphrates River’s decline is severely impacting biodiversity across the region. Several fish species have started to disappear due to drought in river tributaries, and plant life along the banks is deteriorating.
Drying river branches and lakes have also triggered the spread of foul odours and increased insect and mosquito activity, heightening the risk of epidemics and skin and respiratory diseases, particularly in informal camps that rely on the river for drinking and washing.
Reports from the World Health Organisation confirm that declining water quality, caused by reduced flow and rising concentrations of pollutants, poses a major threat to public health. Many residents are now suffering from waterborne diseases such as cholera and typhoid fever, compounding the region’s already dire health crisis.
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Water Shortage Forces New Waves of Displacement
The water crisis is also accelerating internal displacement in Syria. Dozens of families from riverbank villages, where water levels have plummeted, are fleeing to larger cities or areas with more reliable access to electricity and clean water.
Local reports indicate that some villages in the Raqqa countryside are nearly deserted, as residents flee dehydration and the collapse of local water infrastructure.
On April 30, the General Administration of Dams of the Autonomous Administration issued a warning about a dramatic drop in the Euphrates Dam lake level, which had fallen to 298.32 meters above sea level, over 5.5 meters below normal. The drop has resulted in a loss of nearly 4 billion cubic meters of water reserves.
Officials cautioned that if the trend continues, the dam could become non-operational within weeks, leading to the collapse of agricultural systems, electricity generation, and drinking water supply across the region.
One day earlier, Imad Obaid, a senior administrator at the General Administration of Dams, warned of severe consequences stemming from the river’s dwindling flow, stating that the water supply had dropped to around 250 cubic meters per second.
Two Decades of Decline: How Euphrates Levels Have Fallen Since 2000
Since the early 2000s, water flow in the Euphrates has fluctuated with seasonal rains and periodic droughts. However, the situation began deteriorating more rapidly after the Syrian conflict erupted in 2011. By 2021, the river recorded its lowest levels in modern history, falling by five meters compared to the previous year.
On January 14, 2021, the Executive Council of the Autonomous Administration launched the Euphrates Water Reclamation Project in Hasakah as an emergency measure to compensate for the shutdown of the Aluk water station, which was under Turkish control at the time.
Months later, the General Administration of Dams publicly condemned Turkey’s actions in restricting water flow, describing them as violations of international humanitarian law.
Calls Grow for Urgent International Action on Euphrates Water Crisis
Numerous environmental agencies and water authorities consider Turkey’s ongoing reduction of Syria’s water share a blatant breach of international humanitarian law, specifically the 1997 UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses.
In response, they are calling for the activation of international monitoring bodies and the involvement of the United Nations in supervising transboundary water-sharing in conflict zones.
Economic experts warn that the continued drop in Euphrates water levels poses a severe threat to regional economic stability. Agricultural production is expected to fall further, increasing food insecurity and pushing large segments of the population into extreme poverty. Analysts project that the local food basket will shrink significantly in the coming years, worsening the humanitarian situation across northeastern Syria.
