Since the fall of the previous Syrian regime, Israel has intensified its military operations in southern Syria, targeting remnants of the former government’s military infrastructure. At the same time, Turkey has been expanding its influence in collaboration with Syria’s new administration. This growing presence is perceived by Israel as a strategic threat. Analysts suggest that both countries are engaged in a geopolitical contest over Syria, raising questions about the likelihood of an Israeli-Turkish confrontation in the region.
Israeli Airstrikes and Turkish Military Bases
Continuing its military campaign in Syria, Israel conducted airstrikes early Thursday targeting the White Port and the city of Latakia. Earlier this week, the Israeli military confirmed hitting military sites in Palmyra and the T-4 airbase in eastern Homs province.
These airstrikes coincided with reports from Bloomberg and Reuters that Syria’s new administration has allocated a strategic military base to Turkey in Palmyra. This move follows an agreement between Ankara and Damascus to establish a joint military base at Menagh Airfield in Aleppo.
According to these reports, the proposed Turkish base in Palmyra is expected to rival Germany’s Ramstein Air Base in scale. Turkey has reportedly informed major global powers and the United Nations that it considers the base “sovereign Turkish territory” and warned that any attack on it would be met with a direct military response.
Meanwhile, the Turkish Ministry of Defense stated that the base’s primary purpose is to train the new Syrian army under the transitional administration’s request.
Read also: Israeli Escalation in Syria: Strategic Strikes or Regional Destabilization?
Competing Strategic Visions: The David Corridor vs. the National Pact
In an interview with ‘+963′, Turkish affairs expert Khorshid Dali explained that Syria has become an open battleground for Israeli and Turkish geopolitical ambitions.
Dali noted that Turkey views its support for Ahmed al-Sharaa and the Syrian opposition as instrumental in the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This, in turn, has rekindled Turkey’s aspirations to implement the “National Pact”—a 1920s-era doctrine asserting that parts of northern Syria and Iraq historically belonged to Turkey before being ceded under the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly invoked this historical claim, referring to a geographic arc extending from Syria’s Idlib province to Iraq’s Kurdistan region, passing through Aleppo, Raqqa, and Mosul. Turkey’s recent agreements with Damascus, including military and economic partnerships, align with this long-term vision.
Israel, on the other hand, has its own strategic interests in Syria, particularly the “David Corridor” project—a proposed land route connecting Israel to Iraq via Syrian territory. The emergence of this Israeli initiative has heightened regional tensions, creating a new geopolitical rivalry between Ankara and Tel Aviv over Syria’s future.
Read also: How Does Damascus Respond to Israeli and Turkish Strikes?
A Potential Israel-Turkey Confrontation?
Israeli media have reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been holding security consultations regarding Turkey’s growing presence in Syria. Some reports suggest that Netanyahu is preparing for a potential military confrontation.
A classified report by Israel’s “Nagel Committee,” affiliated with the Ministry of Defense, has recommended that the government prepare for a possible war with Turkey, warning that Ankara now poses a greater threat to Israel in Syria than Iran once did.
Dr. Ahmed Fouad Anwar, an Israeli affairs analyst, argues that Israel’s actions in Syria are not merely tactical airstrikes but part of a broader strategic maneuver within the region’s complex power dynamics.
Speaking to ‘+963′, Anwar stated, “A direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel in Syria cannot be ruled out, especially given the personal and political dynamics of Erdogan and Netanyahu. Both leaders face declining domestic popularity and ongoing protests, which might incentivize them to escalate external conflicts as a distraction.”
However, Anwar also suggested that the conflict could ultimately lead to negotiations and agreements over spheres of influence in Syria. He pointed out that several former Israeli generals have warned of an impending war with Turkey, particularly over the status of Jerusalem.
Meanwhile, Khorshid Dali emphasized that several factors constrain a full-scale confrontation. Firstly, Israel and Turkey have historically been allies with shared regional interests. Secondly, both countries maintain close ties with the United States, which under President Donald Trump had a favorable stance toward both Netanyahu and Erdogan.
The most crucial factor, according to Dali, is that Turkey is unlikely to risk a confrontation with Israel, as this would effectively mean challenging the West and jeopardizing its NATO membership.
Syria’s Transitional Government Amid the Rivalry
Regarding Syria’s position in this unfolding conflict, Dali argued that Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of Syria’s transitional administration, faces immense pressure from both Netanyahu and Erdogan. Each leader is not only asserting influence over Syrian affairs but also advancing expansionist agendas that impact vital regions of the country.
Dali stated that for Syria to navigate these external pressures, al-Sharaa must prioritize a comprehensive political process. “The absence of an inclusive national dialogue has created a vacuum that allows foreign powers to pursue their interests at Syria’s expense. A Syrian-led reconciliation is the only viable path to restoring sovereignty and stability,” he added.
Israeli affairs analyst Ahmed Fouad Anwar noted that Syria’s transitional government also faces significant constraints, including economic hardship, limited military capabilities, and a lack of full territorial control.
Amid these military and political developments, Syria’s path to restoring balance and stability appears fraught with challenges. The country has become a battleground for regional influence, with Israel pushing forward its “David Corridor” project while Turkey seeks to realize its historical “National Pact” ambitions.
