The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime late last year ended Iran’s military and political presence in Syria, after more than ten years of engagement alongside the deposed regime. Tehran had built bases, religious and cultural institutions, and concluded economic deals, all of which it viewed as part of its strategic network linking it to Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Mediterranean Sea. However, a new phase began with the formation of the Syrian transitional government, which announced a complete severance of relations with Iran and demanded compensation for the destruction Tehran had caused in Syria.
Iran as a Cause of the Crisis
According to surveys and reports, Syrians view Iran as one of the main contributors to the deepening of their national crisis due to its support for the ousted regime. Many prefer not to reestablish relations with Tehran. Officials in the transitional government have repeatedly expressed their unwillingness to normalize ties or allow Iranian interference again.
Yet, a report by The New Region newspaper published last week revealed Iraqi efforts to mediate between Damascus and Tehran in order to restore relations. Citing unnamed sources, the paper stated that Iraq is working quietly behind the scenes to rebuild bridges between Syria and Iran, leveraging its geographical position and strong relations with Tehran. A series of discreet moves has been taking place for months between Baghdad and Damascus, with secret Iranian participation. Iraqi delegations including representatives of intelligence and the foreign ministry have visited the Syrian capital and held meetings with Syrian foreign ministry officials, seeking to reopen communication channels with Iran. According to the sources, Tehran requested Iraq’s mediation to resume dialogue and relations in hopes of regaining an official presence in Syria and securing its economic and military interests.
The same sources indicated that “the Iraqi government plays a dual role, providing Iran with assessments of the Syrian transitional government’s stance on reconciliation while offering Damascus practical proposals aimed at limiting direct Iranian involvement in exchange for gradual economic and security cooperation.” They added that “the Baghdad-Damascus meetings followed several rounds of Syrian-Russian consultations that revealed disputes between Damascus and Tehran over the future of Iran’s military and economic role in Syria.”
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Iraqi Mediation Efforts
Analysts view Iraq’s efforts to restore relations between Syria and Iran as having three dimensions. First, any normalization would impact Iraq’s own security and stability, given the presence of Iranian-backed militias within its borders. Second, such mediation represents an attempt to secure a new regional foothold for Tehran through diplomatic rather than military means, establishing a degree of balance. Third, it reflects Iraq’s desire to play a more balanced regional role and focus on economic development, trade, and transport cooperation with all parties.
Political researcher Alia Khalaf, based in Baghdad, told +963 that “Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s government has in recent months sought to play a regional role and pursue de-escalation in many contentious issues due to Iraq’s sensitive geopolitical position and the direct impact these conflicts could have on it. This also serves to give al-Sudani’s government political weight.” She added, “It is no secret that Iran has a significant influence on Iraq’s decision-making centers through both direct and indirect channels.”
Iraq Seeks Diplomatic Solutions
Khalaf believes that “the Iraqi government bears a major responsibility to find diplomatic solutions and conclude agreements that promote stability in neighboring countries, which will naturally reflect positively on Iraq. In politics, there are no permanent enemies or friends, only permanent interests.” She added that “this remains true despite disagreements among certain Iraqi factions and politicians regarding the personality of transitional Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa.”
Meanwhile, Syrian writer and political analyst Marah al-Buqai, based in the United States, considers that “Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani has positioned his country as a significant regional mediator. He successfully brokered talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, and between Turkey and the former Syrian regime, capitalizing on his government’s Shiite majority and pragmatic outreach to predominantly Sunni Damascus. Therefore, Baghdad could well mediate between Damascus and Tehran.”
However, al-Buqai told +963 that “if the Syrian government grants Iran a green light to return through Iraqi mediation, such a move would anger the United States and Israel, both of which would consider it a direct threat. Israel would likely respond with airstrikes targeting Syrian sites, Iranian Revolutionary Guard bases, and border routes before any tangible developments occur. The United States, already maintaining troops in Syria and Iraq, would not hesitate to pressure Damascus to freeze any relations, possibly by leveraging its allies, including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), to obstruct such moves.”
Both Israel and the United States have carried out hundreds of airstrikes over the years on Iranian military positions and arms shipments inside Syria. Tel Aviv and Washington claim that Tehran uses Syrian territory as a base for missile storage and as a corridor for supplying weapons to Hezbollah. U.S. institutions continue to stress the need to prevent Iran from reestablishing its military and logistical foothold in Syria. Last month, U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson called for lifting sanctions on Syria and supporting the new Syrian government “to block any Iranian attempts to return to Syrian soil.”
Jamal Wakim, professor of international relations based in Beirut, emphasized that “Tehran is not necessarily the one pushing Baghdad to mediate. Iraq finds itself caught between the Iranian regime and the Syrian authorities, who now view each other with hostility. Baghdad’s mediation attempts stem from the fact that tensions between them affect Iraq’s stability.” He told +963, “The United States wants Syria to act as a barrier against what it perceives as Iran’s attempt to reach the Eastern Mediterranean, which poses a major obstacle to restoring relations between Damascus and Tehran.”
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The Middle East’s Storm of Change
Khalaf noted that “amid the rapid shifts since the start of the Gaza war and the unpredictable policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, countries must reassess their internal and foreign policies and regional relations to safely navigate the storm of change driven by Washington’s approach toward the Middle East.”
Al-Buqai stressed that “the idea of restoring relations between Damascus and Tehran currently seems illogical. Syria’s new leadership has renounced Iran and expelled its militias. Iran’s proxies have been destroyed, Hezbollah can no longer receive arms, and Damascus knows that any policy reversal would lead to total isolation, airstrikes, and possibly regime instability. There is no reason to risk that for Iran’s weakened and isolated position regionally and internationally.”
Earlier this year, Syrian interim government Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani warned Iran against “spreading chaos” in Syria and urged it to respect the will of the Syrian people. He wrote on X, “Iran must respect the will, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of the Syrian people.”
Al-Shaibani’s remarks came in response to statements by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who said, “Those who believe they have achieved victory in Syria should be patient, for many developments lie ahead.” This followed posts by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on X, asserting that “Syrian youth have nothing left to lose. Their schools, universities, and homes are unsafe. Therefore, they must stand with determination against those who planned and executed this chaos, and they will prevail, God willing.”
Following the fall of Assad’s regime, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani stated during a press conference that “Iran is engaged in diplomatic dialogue with Syria’s new authorities to reopen its embassy in Damascus.” Yet, a source close to the Syrian interim government denied “any talks regarding the reopening of Syrian and Iranian embassies in Damascus and Tehran.” The source added that “the new government is preparing a memorandum to submit to international courts demanding $300 billion in compensation from Iran for the damage its policies caused to the Syrian people and the country’s infrastructure.”
