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Israel’s Strategic Calculations in Syria: Military Escalation or Regional Dominance?

Israel justified its incursions into Syria by claiming they were necessary for border security.

Ammar Abdul Latif by Ammar Abdul Latif
2025-03-31
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Israeli Merkava tanks in the Golan Heights, December 25, 2020 (AFP)

Israeli Merkava tanks in the Golan Heights, December 25, 2020 (AFP)

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Israel has intensified its military activities in Syria following the fall of the previous regime. While its involvement was previously limited to periodic airstrikes, Tel Aviv has recently expanded its operations to include ground incursions into villages and towns in Syria’s southern Quneitra and Daraa provinces. The Israeli government has justified these incursions as necessary measures to maintain border security and prevent potential attacks from Syrian territory.

However, Israeli interventions have gone beyond military operations. In recent statements, Israeli officials have openly called for maintaining long-term control over strategic locations in Syria, particularly in the south.

Read also: Source to +963: SDF and Turkey Implement Preliminary Truce in Northern Syria

In February, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Tel Aviv would not allow military forces affiliated with Syria’s transitional administration to enter southern Syria. He insisted that these areas should be entirely demilitarized and hinted at plans to extend Israel’s presence in the Golan Heights and adjacent buffer zones in Quneitra province.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also issued a warning to Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, stating, “Every morning when [Al-Sharaa] opens his eyes in the Damascus presidential palace, he should know that the Israeli army is watching him from the summit of Mount Hermon.”

Israeli concerns extend beyond Syria’s internal security landscape. Reports from Israeli media outlets indicate growing fears in Tel Aviv over a potential confrontation with Turkey, following increased military cooperation between Ankara and Damascus.

Read also: Israel-Turkey Rivalry in Syria: Is a Confrontation Imminent?

Military analyst Brigadier General Naji Malaeb, writing for the third edition of +963 magazine, noted that Turkey’s role in Syria is not new. Ankara has long provided training and weapons to opposition factions, significantly contributing to the downfall of the former regime. He added that Turkey is now deepening its involvement, which raises alarm in Israel.

According to Malaeb, “Israel is operating on multiple fronts in Syria—destroying remaining military assets, expanding its territorial control, and fostering internal discord among Syrians to ensure a weak and fragmented state.”

Given Israel’s expanding footprint in Syria, Malaeb argued that Syria’s transitional government must strengthen cooperation with Arab nations and Turkey to counterbalance Israeli influence. He emphasized that stabilizing Syria requires a coordinated regional effort to bolster governance and rebuild state institutions.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Israeli forces have begun conducting advanced reconnaissance missions inside Syria using improved drones, reportedly capable of executing precision strikes and targeting key militia leaders in the country’s south.

Russia has expressed increasing concern over Israel’s ongoing military actions in Syria. Moscow has warned that continued escalation could trigger broader regional conflicts, especially as Russia deepens its military coordination with Damascus.

In response, Syria’s Foreign Ministry has condemned Israel’s incursions as a blatant violation of its sovereignty and called on the United Nations to act against repeated Israeli aggression. Syrian officials have also criticized what they describe as “conspicuous international silence” on the matter.

On the ground, Israeli forces have reportedly reinforced their positions in the occupied Golan Heights and expanded their presence in buffer zones. These troop movements have coincided with intensified airstrikes targeting military sites around the Syrian capital, Damascus.

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