Lebanon is witnessing seismic political shifts that are placing Hezbollah at what may be its most existential moment since the July 2006 war. The group is facing a dual retreat; militarily and politically. While Hezbollah insists its recent clashes with Israel amount to a “strategic victory,” mounting evidence, both domestically and internationally, suggests a decline in its battlefield capabilities and popular support, both long considered central pillars of its legitimacy.
Eroding Military Might: The Resistance in Crisis
The latest round of confrontation with Israel proved unlike previous ones. According to Western intelligence reports, by the end of 2024, Israeli precision strikes had destroyed approximately 60% of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The damage included long-range missile depots, underground launch facilities, and encrypted communications systems that were once vital to its coordinated operations. This decline directly impacted its operational tempo, with daily rocket launches dropping from around 50 to just 15, a clear sign of diminished deterrence capability.
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The losses weren’t just structural. Diplomatic sources reported that over 70% of the group’s field commanders, some of them cyberwarfare and drone technology specialists, were killed over a six-month period. This blow forced Hezbollah to shift tactics, increasingly relying on drone strikes. While some of these attacks breached Israeli defenses, around 30% were intercepted, highlighting the limits of this strategy in the face of advanced Israeli countermeasures.
Ballot Box Battles: A New Fight for Legitimacy
With battlefield outcomes no longer guaranteed, Hezbollah is preparing for a different kind of confrontation, Lebanon’s municipal elections scheduled for spring 2025. A study by the Arab Election Monitoring Network indicates the group’s popularity is waning in traditional strongholds. In Beirut’s southern suburbs, support dropped from 78% in 2020 to 61% in March 2025.
This erosion of support stems from multiple factors: international sanctions have slashed the incomes of families linked to the party’s economy by nearly 40%; municipal administrations run by Hezbollah have failed to address chronic issues like waste management and crumbling infrastructure; and public frustration is rising over sending youth to war zones without clear social or economic prospects.
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Local Alliances Challenge the “Military Municipality”
Amid this decline, new civic alliances have emerged in 12 predominantly Shiite municipalities, rallying around the slogan: “The municipality is not a military base.” These alliances, made up of civil society activists, businesspeople, and academics, offer an alternative to Hezbollah’s governance, pledging efficient, non-partisan administration free from regional entanglements. Their message is resonating, especially among younger voters disillusioned by war and unemployment.
Hezbollah, in response, is trying to galvanize its base through a “Shiite victimhood” narrative, blaming external actors, particularly the U.S. and Israel, for Lebanon’s woes. The group is framing the elections not as a referendum on local performance but as a vote on Shiite identity and resistance, aiming to shift the narrative away from poor governance.
Analysts estimate Hezbollah may retain only 60% of the municipalities it previously controlled. While that would still reflect a solid organizational core, losing 40% would mark a political earthquake. It could trigger rifts with allies like the Amal Movement or prompt them to form independent blocs seeking to distance themselves from Hezbollah’s local governance model.
There are also concerns that Hezbollah might resort to further military escalation against Israel to divert attention from electoral losses or even push to cancel the elections under the pretext of security concerns; moves that could plunge Lebanon into another cycle of political paralysis.
Regional Role Shrinking Amid Diplomatic Shifts
Hezbollah’s pressures aren’t only internal. Regionally, the group’s influence is diminishing. This comes amid reports of secret negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Amman during the height of Israel’s war on Gaza and the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The talks suggest that Iran might be willing to trade some of its regional leverage, including Hezbollah, in return for sanctions relief.
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This new reality, along with proposed amendments to UN Resolution 1701 that could further restrict Hezbollah’s movements in southern Lebanon, has put the group in an unusually defensive position. These developments are also fueling internal debates about the long-term viability of the resistance model in a changing geopolitical landscape.
A Defining Moment Ahead
The upcoming municipal elections represent a turning point for Hezbollah. The party now stands at a crossroads: either adapt to a new phase by rebuilding its popular legitimacy through improved civic performance or face growing isolation at home and abroad if it continues to rely solely on military and security tactics.
This is a decisive chapter for a movement that has long dominated Lebanon’s political equation, not just through arms, but through a socio-political narrative now under serious strain. Will Hezbollah pivot and embrace a more civil, locally grounded form of legitimacy? Or will it drive Lebanon further into crisis with consequences that could ripple far beyond its borders?
