In recent weeks, Syria has seen a surge in both external and, albeit to a lesser extent, internal activity, culminating in several major developments. Chief among them is U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans to fully lift sanctions on Syria, as well as his discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a visit to Riyadh, the first stop on his Gulf tour last week, which included a meeting with the head of the Syrian Transitional Administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Experts suggest that lifting the sanctions will have wide-ranging implications for the Syrian economy. It is expected to pave the way for re-entry into the global financial and banking systems, enable renewed engagement with international institutions and financial flows, and potentially attract foreign investment.
Domestically, Syrian Defence Minister Major General Murhaf Abu Qasra has announced the integration of all military factions and units operating within the country under the Ministry of Defence. He gave what he referred to as “small military groups” a deadline of ten days from the date of the announcement to join the ministry, warning that failure to comply would lead to actions under applicable laws.
In an exclusive interview with +963, Brigadier General Ahmed Rahal discusses these recent political shifts, including the lifting of sanctions, the evolving military and field dynamics inside Syria, and the future of Israeli presence in the south of the country as part of a broader normalisation process under the new administration.
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Is the Military Situation and the Formation of a New Syrian Army Moving in the Right Direction?
I believe the country has already succeeded in turning the page on factionalism. On the ground, particularly in the southern regions, there is a near-total absence of external support. This lack of backing has rendered the survival of local factions unsustainable, with no funding, salaries, or weapons, making their continued existence virtually impossible.
Today, most of these groups have either been integrated into the Ministry of Defence’s new structure or have been completely disbanded. Nevertheless, is this progress truly heading in the right direction? I would say it’s still in its early stages. Key military competencies, such as defected officers and specialists, have yet to be reinstated.
The military doctrine remains undefined, and the future shape of the army, its ideological orientation and logistical dependencies are still unclear. While we now have a Ministry of Defence, it lacks actual firepower, as Israeli airstrikes have destroyed much of the strategic weapons stockpile. This remains one of the most significant obstacles moving forward.
Have Recent Political Developments, Such as the Lifting of Sanctions and the Sharaa-Trump Meeting, Affected the Military and Field Situation in Syria? And What is the Impact on the Agreement Between the Transitional Government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)?
Absolutely. Recent political developments have had a direct effect on the military landscape. The meeting between Syrian transitional leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and U.S. President Donald Trump carries major significance, most notably, Syria’s re-entry onto the international coordination stage. We have also heard statements from the U.S. Secretary of State confirming an official Syrian request for assistance in addressing the issue of foreign fighters, signalling the potential for future military coordination with the international coalition.
Regarding the agreement between the transitional government and the SDF, all signs point toward continued integration, particularly with ongoing Turkish sponsorship. Türkiye remains a central player in this process. Its coordination with the Syrian transitional administration is helping accelerate the SDF’s incorporation into national institutions, which, in turn, is helping dismantle the factionalism that previously defined the scene.
With the Lifting of British Sanctions on the Ministries of Defence and Interior, and Government Statements About Drawing on Arab Experience in Security, Are We Seeing New European and Arab Sponsorship of Syria’s Military Institutions? What is Türkiye’s Role?
Yes, we are witnessing a notable shift in Europe’s approach. The lifting of sanctions signals growing British and European openness to security and military cooperation with Syria’s new government. Drawing on Arab experience is also essential, and the Ministry of Interior has openly stated its intention to exchange expertise with neighbouring countries such as Jordan and Egypt.
Türkiye plays a pivotal role. It boasts a powerful, well-organised military and highly capable security services. Ankara has not withheld its support; rather, it has dispatched experts to multiple ministries, including Defence and Interior. This Turkish assistance will be vital in rebuilding Syria’s state institutions on a modern and effective foundation.
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What Is the Future of the Israeli Military Presence in Syria and the Normalisation Process? What Limits Will Tel Aviv Impose on the Syrian Army?
The future of Israel’s presence in Syria is tied to ongoing negotiations at multiple levels, including recent meetings in Abu Dhabi and Baku. Israel wants its own security and strongly opposes any military presence that could jeopardise its air superiority or restrict its operational freedom within Syrian territory.
Normalisation with Israel may ultimately form part of broader regional settlements. However, it remains a complex issue, particularly with the Golan Heights still under Israeli occupation. A potential return to the 1974 disengagement agreement could serve as an initial framework for addressing the dispute.
Regarding the rearmament of the Syrian army, Israel is likely to play a decisive role in any future regional power balance. It will not accept a shift in this balance, whether through direct arms transfers to Syria or strategic alliances with countries such as Türkiye. Everything is dependent on both Arab and American guarantees and subject to highly specific agreements.
What Will the Military Situation in Suwayda Look Like in the Coming Period?
I anticipate a breakthrough in Suwayda soon. Tensions have eased, and there are early signs of dialogue between the government and representatives of local actors in the governorate. While regional powers, namely Iran and Israel, have previously sought to manipulate certain groups in Suwayda as leverage, the government has managed to absorb this pressure with skill.
The situation is trending toward calm. Stability in Suwayda is critical not only for Syria but also for Lebanon and Jordan. I believe a regional consensus will soon crystallise, bringing clarity to the local scene.
What Is the Current State of Syria’s Military and Security Landscape Following the Recent Political Shift, and What Are the Key Challenges to Stability?
Since the political shift, Syria’s security situation has improved considerably. There has been a steady restoration of institutional authority. Still, major challenges remain: the weakened military infrastructure, the continued absence of specialised personnel, unresolved security flashpoints, and infiltration by residual elements affiliated with Iran and Hezbollah.
A significant challenge lies in consolidating military authority, particularly in a context shaped by overlapping regional and international interests. Nevertheless, with continued support from Arab states and Türkiye, there is a genuine opportunity to rebuild Syria’s security institutions on a national and professional foundation.
Military developments in Syria remain closely linked to the broader political context. The lifting of sanctions, renewed Arab engagement, Türkiye’s growing role, and the evolving American stance all suggest increased support for Syria’s stability. Regional and international powers now recognise that Syria’s security has direct implications for the wider Middle East and Europe. Effective border control, anti-narcotics efforts, and curbing smuggling are shared interests.
That said, international support will come with conditions, chief among them, the need for institutional control and assurances that Syria does not again become a battleground for competing influences.
