For more than a decade, Syrian refugees abroad have remained at the heart of the country’s crisis. From the early days of the conflict to the fall of the Assad regime last year, the refugee issue has exerted pressure on all parties – the Syrian actors, the international community, and host countries alike – to seek an end to the conflict and begin a new phase of recovery. Yet, according to human rights organisations, serious economic and security obstacles still stand in the way of resolving this complex humanitarian crisis.
New European Measures
Several European countries, including Austria, Denmark and Germany, have recently announced new measures concerning Syrian refugees following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Most EU member states have begun intensive talks with Syria’s interim government regarding the possible return of refugees, despite repeated warnings from UN-affiliated human rights organisations that the country remains unprepared to receive returnees.
Poor infrastructure, economic collapse, a weakened local currency, despite the lifting of most sanctions, and persistent security risks make conditions unsafe for large-scale repatriation.
As part of this European engagement, a Dutch delegation headed by Trade and Development Minister Ockje de Vries visited Damascus last week for talks with Syrian interim Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani. The discussions focused on the file of Syrian refugees in the Netherlands and potential cooperation in economic and development fields.
The delegation also met with Hind Kabawat, Minister of Social Affairs and Labour, who stressed that “refugees cannot be forced to return under the current conditions,” according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).
German Procedures
Last week, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt announced that Germany would revoke asylum rights for Syrians who have returned to their country after being granted protection status. He argued that such returns indicate that “the reasons for granting asylum no longer exist.”
Dobrindt explained that Germany would begin reviewing asylum cases and deporting those whose claims are rejected, prioritising young people capable of working but dependent on government assistance. The minister added that Berlin is seeking an agreement with Syria’s transitional government to carry out deportations, beginning with convicted offenders and later expanding to other groups.
He also confirmed that the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) would resume processing Syrian asylum applications, which had been largely frozen since 2012, when most Syrians were granted temporary protection, according to the German newspaper Bild.
According to Germany’s Interior Ministry, about 955,000 Syrians were living in Germany as of July 2025 – roughly 20,000 fewer than at the start of the year – mainly due to voluntary returns following the regime’s collapse. Nevertheless, 17,650 new asylum applications were filed between January and August 2025.
Assessing the Situation in Syria
Fadel Abdul Ghani, Director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), stressed that European democracies hosting Syrian refugees rely on independent experts who assess Syria’s readiness to receive returnees. “These researchers are independent and base their reports on data from trusted human rights networks,” he told +963. “Therefore, deportation decisions cannot be made if conditions are deemed unsuitable.”
He added that while most international sanctions on Syria have been lifted, their positive effects are yet to materialise due to bureaucratic and administrative barriers.
A Complex File
Lebanese political analyst Ahmad al-Zein described the refugee issue as “a deeply complex file.” Despite allowing Syrian students to enrol in Lebanese public schools – an implicit sign that return is not imminent – he predicted that “once reconstruction begins, many refugees will start going back.”
Al-Zein added that Syria’s reconstruction, expected to begin next year, would generate “hundreds of thousands of job opportunities,” prompting large-scale returns. He also noted plans to rehabilitate the Beirut–Damascus highway, a key route linking the port of Beirut with Syria, in preparation for the transport of reconstruction materials.
Meanwhile, a convoy of 400 Syrian refugees returned from Lebanon to Syria on Thursday through the al-Arida border crossing in Tartus Governorate. Syrian officials said the operation was coordinated with the UNHCR and relevant Syrian departments to facilitate the return of those lacking official Syrian documents.
Last week, another 406 refugees returned from Lebanon via the Jdeidet Yabous crossing as part of the voluntary return programme jointly organised by the Lebanese and Syrian governments and the UNHCR.
Read also: Syria’s Transitional Justice: Can Peace Be Built Without Accountability?
Unstable Conditions
UK-based political analyst Kamel Hawash said that European countries differ in their approach to the Syrian refugee issue. “Germany is still studying whether conditions allow safe returns, while countries like Austria and Denmark believe Syria is now safe enough,” he explained.
However, Salah Suleiman, a political analyst based in Germany, argued that “Syria remains unstable both economically and security-wise. The country needs significant time to rebuild its infrastructure.”
Suleiman told +963 that the current situation places “a major responsibility on the interim government to prepare for the reintegration of returnees.” He noted that even with new deportation plans, “returns will not happen in large waves, but through gradual, legally regulated processes.”
Hawash agreed, adding that many Syrians choose to return voluntarily for personal reasons. “Some find it difficult to adapt to social norms or parenting laws in host countries,” he said. “But forced returns are unacceptable; they must be voluntary and safe.”
In a report published in June, the Syrian Network for Human Rights described the plight of returnees as a “triple impasse.” It said that destroyed infrastructure, a collapsed economy, and weak governance prevent Syrians from reclaiming property, obtaining official documents, or rebuilding institutions; all of which require a lasting political settlement.
On 13 October, Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UNHCR representative in Syria, warned against the forced repatriation of Syrian refugees, particularly from Germany. He said the country had reached “the limit of its capacity” after receiving around one million returnees and that many might leave again if conditions do not improve.
UNHCR data show that since December 2024, more than 160,000 registered refugees have returned from Jordan to Syria, nearly half of them women and girls. Children make up 43 per cent of returnees, while men aged 18 to 40 account for about 19 per cent. The agency expects the number of Syrian refugees in Jordan to fall to around 415,000 by the end of 2025.
It added that 67 per cent of Syrian refugees in Jordan live below the poverty line, and nine out of ten are in debt to cover basic needs such as rent, food and healthcare. Since early 2025, around 22,000 returnees have received support at border crossings, and nearly 10,000 families have benefited from UNHCR’s reintegration aid programme inside Syria.
