After years of paying the price for its alliance with Tehran, Syria is now distancing itself from the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. That alliance effectively ended with the collapse of Assad’s government and his flight, along with his family, to Moscow following the victory of the armed opposition.
Under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa, the new Syrian administration has opted to focus on economic development, investment, and reconstruction projects. It has deliberately avoided becoming entangled in military alliances that once allowed Tehran to dominate large sectors of the country in exchange for its support of Assad during the war.
Despite the absence of internal armed conflict, Syrians, particularly in the south, continue to feel the effects of the Iran-Israel confrontation. Missile strikes and drone incursions have landed near civilian areas, but the government’s stance of neutrality has so far shielded the country from any significant economic, security, or military repercussions.
The current escalation began last Friday morning, when Israel launched a series of unprecedented airstrikes deep inside Iranian territory. Targets reportedly included nuclear facilities, ballistic missile production centres, senior military officials, and nuclear scientists.
Analysts argue that the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv could have a positive impact on Damascus, as both adversaries are now preoccupied with each other. For years, Iran used Syrian territory as a forward base to threaten Israel, prompting repeated Israeli strikes on military and foreign leadership targets in Damascus and Homs, operations that persisted until the fall of the Assad regime.
While some Syrians worry that the war could impact the country’s economic recovery or delay development efforts, particularly after the lifting of international sanctions, others caution that Iran may attempt to reassert its influence by backing rebel movements and destabilising the country once again.
The Iranian-Israeli War: An Internal Iranian Matter
Dr. Osama Qazi, head of the Qazi Centre for Economic, Administrative and Financial Consulting in Canada and Syria, told +963 that Syria now lies “outside the circle” of the Iranian-Israeli conflict.
“The arena of conflict has shifted away from Arab countries, where Iran previously sought influence, and has now returned to Tehran. Damascus is keeping its distance from this escalation,” he said.
He emphasised that Syria’s security will not be affected. “This is a war between two actors, each fighting on its soil. Arab countries, especially Syria, are no longer involved, nor are they bearing the cost,” Qazi added.
According to him, the conflict will not obstruct Syria’s reconstruction plans. “The country will be rebuilt over the next decade. Investment companies continue to enter Syria. The instability in Iran is pushing investors to seek a more stable environment, and Syria is currently offering that,” he explained.
Qazi pointed to international economic partnerships as evidence of confidence in Syria’s future. “Bilateral agreements, memoranda of understanding, and international engagement, particularly from American companies, signal a belief in Syria’s long-term stability. These moves also convey a message that Syria will not revert to being a theatre of regional conflict,” he said.
He noted that deeper Israeli involvement in Syria is increasingly unlikely, especially following new directives from U.S. President Donald Trump, which have led to a shift in Washington’s tone toward Damascus. “There is a possibility of restoring old agreements and guarantees,” Qazi said.
He added, “Although Iran has attempted to maintain influence in fragile pockets, it has failed. Its regional project has collapsed, and the struggle has become an internal one. The United States is now focused on resolving problems and advancing economic development across the Middle East.”
Positive Effect
Wejdan Abdulrahman, a specialist in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs, told +963 that the war between Israel and Iran is “having a positive impact on Syria’s security and economic situation.”
“With Tehran unable to support remnants of the deposed regime or destabilise the country through its networks, Syria has a rare opportunity to reinforce its stability,” he said.
Abdulrahman added that Israel, too, is focused entirely on its confrontation with Iran, which provides Damascus with breathing room to rebuild its military and security institutions.
According to Abdulrahman, the conflict will not derail current development efforts. “Several factors are driving Syria’s recovery: the removal of U.S. and EU sanctions, growing Arab support for Damascus, and the strategic opportunity to capitalise on the Tel Aviv-Tehran conflict to boost the national economy.”
He also cited recent statements from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who reportedly requested U.S. mediation on outstanding issues with Damascus. “This indicates that future Israeli incursions into Syrian territory will likely diminish and may not persist,” he said.
Abdulrahman noted that “Syria was once a critical base for the Iranian regime, which poured tens of billions into it. But all that was lost with the fall of Bashar al-Assad. The country’s airspace became a corridor for Israeli strikes, and Iran’s ambition to reach the Mediterranean evaporated.”
He added, “Tehran tried to retaliate from the earliest days of the new Syrian administration, but it failed, and it will continue to fail.”
