As 2025 draws to a close, Syria stands at a critical moment: refugees are returning in growing numbers, yet the country remains devastated – its infrastructure destroyed, its economy exhausted and its reconstruction plans barely underway. The interim administration is pressing ahead with its national plan for voluntary return, but the gap between ambition and reality remains wide, both materially and politically.
A return without infrastructure – a country rising from the rubble
The interim administration launched a nationwide plan for voluntary and organised return at the start of 2025, working with the United Nations and several international partners. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians in neighbouring states were targeted, particularly in Turkey and Lebanon.
Official figures show that more than one million Syrians have returned since late 2024, including around 550,000 from Turkey. Yet the reality they encounter is harsh. Entire districts remain in ruins, and essential services such as electricity, water, healthcare and schooling operate at minimal levels.
Migration and asylum specialist Ahmed Saadoun tells +963 that speaking of voluntary return under such conditions is “difficult to realise at present”, noting that Syria’s security, economic and social environment still falls short of what is required for a safe and dignified return.
He adds that refugees who rebuilt their lives in countries like Germany, Britain or Sweden “will struggle to return to an unstable environment with limited services”. Forced or pressured returns, he warns, risk producing new social tensions and behavioural problems.
Rights advocate and journalist Iman Abu Assaf agrees. She says Western calls for return lack legal and ethical grounding and argues that claims of improved security “do not reflect the actual situation”, given the political fragility and absence of a unifying national framework.
“Any return without justice and accountability will be superficial,” she says, warning that it may lead simply to new waves of displacement.
Reconstruction absent – and returns beyond the state’s capacity
The interim administration under Ahmed Al-Sharaa acknowledges the scale of the challenge. The return plan faces financial, administrative and legal barriers, with domestic resources almost non-existent and international funding shaped by sanctions and complex political conditions.
Saadoun says the government is “not yet capable of receiving large numbers of returnees, especially those whose cases in Britain or the EU are still under review”. He calls for direct Arab support – from Jordan, Iraq and Gulf states including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar – to help stabilise local institutions and train administrative and security bodies.
Funding far below needs
Economist Dr Ziad Ayyoub Arbash argues that the central challenge is balancing the push for return with the lack of reconstruction funding. He says this balance “requires realistic policies, better use of local resources and effective regional and international support”. Job creation, private-sector incentives and improved public-finance management are key.
He notes that Lebanon offers limited financial assistance to returnees, around 100 USD on departure and 400 USD upon arrival in Syria, but insists that a national framework guaranteeing rights and facilitating documentation is essential.
The UN’s 2025–2028 plan, worth 1.3 billion USD, is “necessary but insufficient”, he says. More funding sources and better domestic revenue are needed.
A risky return
Large areas of Syria still suffer from insecurity and heavy destruction. International reports point to instability in regions such as Suwayda and other southern areas.
A safe return, Saadoun warns, needs “years of sustained international effort”, estimating at least five years to restore minimum security and infrastructure.
Abu Assaf stresses that “safe return begins inside the country, not at the border”. She argues that accountability, justice and rebuilding trust between citizens and the state are the real conditions for sustainable return.
For now, the interim administration is pursuing a dual strategy: gradual return alongside rapid rehabilitation of the least-damaged areas, supported by legal and security guarantees for those coming home.
An incomplete economic vision
Arbash notes that comprehensive reconstruction remains out of reach. Full rebuilding is estimated at between 600 and 900 billion USD, with infrastructure alone requiring around 216 billion USD.
Immediate priorities, he says, should include improving revenue mobilisation, stimulating local investment, creating vocational programmes for returnees and supporting agriculture, construction and healthcare.
Looking to the long term, he points to plans by the Syrian Development Fund to build 50,000 housing units for returnees by 2035, but stresses the need for faster institutional reform and stronger decentralisation.
Saadoun adds that “Syria has always had strong tourism potential”, and renewed stability could help reopen the country to investment in the future.
Arbash concludes that the coming stage requires “a unified national vision” integrating the state, civil society and international support to secure sustainable return and rebuild a viable economic base for a new Syria.
By the end of 2025, the return of refugees remains a bold but risky step. With reconstruction stalled, services crippled and resources scarce, the process is still more symbolic than practical. While some place their hopes in political stabilisation and a peaceful transition, the country’s fragile economic and security reality means that safe and sustainable return is still a distant goal.
