The issue of Syrian refugees has constituted over the past ten years a humanitarian and political crisis, as well as a pressure tool that many states have used in service of their internal and external interests. This is due to its connection to the regional countries neighboring Syria and extending to Europe, which has kept it within the sphere of political investment despite the humanitarian dimension of their suffering.
During recent years, right wing party currents within Europe have played a notable role in mobilizing Western public opinion against refugees, particularly Syrians. They have done so by using criminal pretexts related to their presence and Islamophobia during any security events that disturb European stability. However, the nature of the declared war on the Assad regime and the sanctions imposed on it restrained the right wing’s fervor against refugees on the basis that sending them back to their country would amount to a death sentence under the Assad regime, which contradicts international law and conventions.
However, with the fall of the Assad regime on 8 December 2024, the issue of Syrian refugees began to take a turn that threatens their stability in Europe. Voices demanding their return grew louder, arguing that the primary reason for their asylum had ceased with the fall of Assad. This was reinforced by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the first senior European official to declare his support for the return of Syrian refugees, stating that reconstruction in Syria is impossible without these people, and that those who refuse to return could be deported in the future.
Political card
The Assad regime spent the past ten years investing in the Syrian refugee card as a consequence of European and American sanctions. It facilitated all procedures for the departure of millions of Syrians to neighboring countries, notably Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. Turkey, for its part, managed the same file by working to establish a buffer zone in the north and entering deep into Syrian territory. It also pressured Europe by opening maritime borders toward Greece to obtain political gains that the European Union described as political exploitation during an emergency meeting of interior ministers in March 2020, an accusation Turkey categorically denied.
Despite the European budget allocated to addressing the refugee crisis, Europe was still able to play the Syrian card politically, asserting that the Assad regime was a primary cause of the crisis, which strengthened its political pressure in favor of toppling Assad.
With the fall of the regime, the rise of a new administration allied with Turkey, the rapid opening of Syrian European relations and the lifting of sanctions, the refugee card no longer seems to represent an international dynamic in the regional arena. In addition, the Syrian environment no longer constitutes a danger for many Syrians who have not integrated in Europe and consider returning. Data issued by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden, Germany, indicates an increase of 35.3 percent in the number of Syrians returning to their homeland, with around 21,800 departures recorded between January and September 2025. These indicators suggest a new trajectory and a partial European willingness to return to Syria.
Humanitarian issue
Figures issued by the Directorate of Relations at the General Authority for Land and Sea Crossings indicate the return of 450,000 Syrians from Turkey through various border crossings since the liberation, including 215,000 through Bab al Hawa and 135,000 through al Salama. An additional 250,000 refugees have returned from neighboring countries, including 120,000 from Lebanon, 100,000 from Jordan and 20,000 from Iraq. Meanwhile, most European states rushed after the fall of the Assad regime to suspend and freeze previous asylum applications within their territories and to activate deportation orders against violators.
Nevertheless, European voices continue to assess the situation in Syria differently. They argue that security conditions in Syria are still unsuitable, in addition to the fragility of infrastructure. German President Frank Walter Steinmeier expressed his rejection of statements calling for the immediate return of Syrian refugees in Germany to their devastated homeland.
Moreover, there are numerous challenges that do not encourage the large scale return of refugees to Syria. These include high birth rates in diaspora countries, existing stability, the practical absence of the Syrian personal status law, poor services, the education system, destroyed cities and the presence of conflict hotspots in the coast, Sweida and northeast of the Euphrates. All of these factors discourage any return to Syria.
International law
There is no doubt that the collective return of refugees contradicts European laws and international agreements such as the Geneva Convention on Refugees and the European Convention on Human Rights, both of which prohibit returning individuals to places where their lives or freedoms may be threatened. This applies clearly to the Syrian case. Furthermore, judicial procedures for contesting the rejection of asylum applications are still in effect and are supported by numerous human rights organizations concerned with refugee affairs.
Accordingly, the imminent danger remains for thousands of undocumented individuals whose asylum applications have not been accepted or who have committed crimes within European territories. These individuals are not covered by protection and asylum laws, which signals the possibility of their deportation in accordance with judicial orders.
The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of +963.
