Political analysts believe that the relationship between Syria’s interim leadership and Russia is undergoing a delicate test, one that balances the pursuit of justice for citizens with the preservation of strategic interests. The stance regarding the deposed former president Bashar al-Assad, who was granted asylum in Moscow on humanitarian grounds, poses a dual challenge: on one hand, the Syrian people’s demand for accountability, and on the other, the need to maintain strategic cooperation with Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has reaffirmed the Syrians’ right to demand that Assad be brought to justice, signaling the necessity of prosecuting the fugitive former regime leader, who fled to Russia following the collapse of his regime in December of last year.
In an interview with The Washington Post last Tuesday, al-Sharaa stated that “Bashar al-Assad’s case is a troubling issue for Russia.”
Syrian Rights and Strategic Interests
In an analysis of the current developments, political analyst Firas Allawi told +963 that the demand to extradite Assad is “a legitimate right of the Syrian government,” but noted that it could be used as a bargaining chip to strengthen other strategic files. He emphasized that “the Syrian president understands the difficulty of convincing Russia to hand Assad over, but he could use these demands to gain leverage in other negotiations, thereby reshaping relations between Damascus and Moscow.”
Allawi added that “Moscow will not extradite Bashar al-Assad except under exceptional circumstances. Therefore, Damascus may benefit from redefining its relationship with Russia, especially as Moscow seeks to maintain the stability of the current Syrian government and avoid losing it to American pressure.”
He also pointed out that Syria sees “a possibility to absorb and channel public anger in ways that serve its political interests and international relations, using various files that could advance a path toward justice aligned with its strategic orientation both domestically and internationally.”
From the perspective of the transitional government, President al-Sharaa reiterated that the Syrians’ right to demand justice remains a priority: “The case of Bashar al-Assad is troubling for Russia, and our relationship with them is still at an early stage. We will preserve our right as Syrians to demand that Assad be brought to justice.”
Al-Sharaa added: “We were at war with Russia for ten years, and it was a hard and exhausting war. They declared my death several times… We need Russia because it is a permanent member of the Security Council, and we need its voice to support us in certain matters. We also have strategic interests with them, and we do not wish to push Russia into taking alternative or adverse positions toward Syria.”
Read also: Where Is Syria’s Foreign Policy Heading?
Moscow’s Position
From Moscow’s perspective, the Russian leadership has affirmed its commitment to developing relations with the new Syrian leadership independently, even as the Assad issue remains a diplomatic challenge.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated: “We are building our relations with the new Syrian leadership. There was recently a very successful and fruitful visit by the Syrian president to Moscow, during which he held extensive talks with President Putin. We hope to continue developing bilateral relations between Russia and Syria independently.”
In another statement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov revealed unprecedented details concerning former president Bashar al-Assad, noting that Moscow had intervened to protect and transfer him to Russia. “He decided to retire from politics completely… Russia supports the Syrian people,” Lavrov said, affirming the strength of relations with transitional President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
From Moscow, academic and political analyst Mahmoud al-Afandi argued that any attempt to extradite Assad is “impossible under the Russian constitution, which protects humanitarian refugees. Any such attempt would require amending the constitution and holding a public referendum that could take years, making this scenario virtually impossible.”
Al-Afandi told +963 that “Russia considers the Syrian civil war a closed chapter, and believes that all parties, including Russia itself, bear responsibility for Syrian bloodshed. Russia’s military and political presence in Syria depends on the Syrian government’s will, and Moscow does not interfere in internal matters, including transitional justice. Its role is limited to military and diplomatic presence within the framework defined by the Syrian government.”
He continued: “Moscow is not concerned with internal transitional justice in Syria and views all Syrian parties as responsible for the blood spilled during the war. Its role is confined to maintaining its military and diplomatic presence as determined by the Syrian government.”
International law experts confirm that Damascus has legal tools at its disposal, whether through bilateral agreements with Russia, such as the 2022 extradition treaty—or through referral of the case to the United Nations Security Council, which in turn could refer war crimes to the International Criminal Court, even though neither Russia nor Syria has signed the Rome Statute.
In this context, analysts emphasize that the Assad file will remain a key point of negotiation between Damascus and Moscow, representing an ongoing test between Syria’s national interests, citizens’ rights, and broader international strategic considerations.
