Since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, southern Syria has entered an unprecedented phase of instability marked by escalating local conflict, sustained Israeli military operations, and a conspicuous absence of transitional government authority.
Events have rapidly unfolded across the provinces of Daraa and Quneitra, where local armed factions have scrambled to fill the widening security void amid a minimal presence from the transitional Interior Ministry’s security apparatus.
In Daraa, targeted killings have resumed, albeit at a slower pace than in previous years. Victims span a wide spectrum, from former regime loyalists to individuals with past links to Iran and Hezbollah, as well as those accused of involvement in narcotics trafficking.
Residents in these areas live in a state of constant anxiety. With limited governmental presence to enforce order or mediate disputes, southern Syria has become fertile ground for both domestic unrest and foreign intervention.
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Open Scenarios
Israel’s expanding military operations have added further volatility. Over the past few weeks, Tel Aviv has carried out a string of airstrikes and limited ground incursions targeting former regime military sites, especially around Daraa and Quneitra.
One of the deadliest incidents occurred in the city of Nawa, where nine people, a mix of civilians and local fighters, were killed while resisting an Israeli advance toward the strategic Tel al-Jumou outpost. In the nearby village of Kuwaya, seven civilians, including women and children, were killed under similar circumstances.
The transitional government’s response has been muted, limited to statements of condemnation that critics argue fall short of the gravity of the situation.
According to Syrian military analyst Colonel Akram Abu Mejna, speaking to +963 in its sixth edition, “The south has effectively become an open zone for Israeli operations since the regime’s collapse. There is no cohesive defense strategy nor unified political posture from the transitional government or its regional allies.”
He added that Israel’s increasing aggression is directly linked to the transitional authorities’ failure to establish control. “The government’s inability to stabilize the south has emboldened Israel. It reflects a clear failure to prioritize national security where it is most urgently needed.”
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Public Discontent Grows
Mourners in Kuwaya and Nawa expressed frustration at the tepid official response to the Israeli raids, noting that the government’s presence at funerals was minimal and symbolic. In contrast, civil society groups from across sectarian lines reportedly showed strong solidarity with the victims.
“The silence from the new leadership adds to the pain of losing loved ones,” said Mohammad al-Hariri, a resident of Daraa. “It sends a troubling message about who really holds power and reflects a troubling absence of the authorities in one of the country’s most pivotal zones.”
While dozens of armed groups nominally operate under the Defense Ministry or Interior Security, most act autonomously. Their lack of central coordination has deepened the chaos, despite recent attempts by the transitional government to integrate local fighters through recruitment drives.
In an earlier interview published in +963’s fifth edition, Daraa Governor Ahmad Taha al-Zoubi acknowledged the disorder. “We’ve been reporting Israeli incursions to Damascus for months,” he said. “We are also working to incorporate local factions into formal structures, but clarity is lacking.”
The stakes in southern Syria are not merely domestic. The region is emerging once again as an arena for regional and international conflict, driven by Israel’s assertive strategy and Syria’s internal fragmentation.
Despite entering its fourth month, the transitional government has yet to present a coherent plan for security or civil administration in the south, a failure increasingly difficult to justify.
As activist Ayman al-Masri told +963: “Amid these entanglements, the Syrian citizen remains the biggest loser. Regimes change, flags are swapped, but bloodshed remains the one constant in a shifting equation where the state’s voice is silent, and hot zones are left to face their fate alone.”
