Washington, D.C.- Security experts, as well as U.S. and United Nations officials, are warning of a renewed threat from the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria, cautioning that the group has shown signs of revitalization and may be on the path to regaining strength in the region.
According to a New York Times report published Wednesday, ISIS has recently escalated its activities in Syria, recruiting new fighters, increasing its attacks, and demonstrating a concerning level of operational resilience.
While ISIS no longer controls large swathes of territory as it did at the height of its power nearly a decade ago, experts stress that the organization still poses a serious security risk. A key concern lies in the potential breakout of thousands of experienced ISIS fighters currently detained in prisons operated by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Colin Clarke, Director of Research at the Soufan Group, a global intelligence and security consultancy, told the Times:
“The crown jewel for the Islamic State is still the prisons and camps, that’s where the experienced, battle-hardened fighters are. In addition to whatever muscle they add to the group, if those prisons are open, the pure propaganda value.” This could significantly boost ISIS’s recruitment efforts in the coming months
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The paper also noted that, despite territorial losses, ISIS continues to spread its extremist ideology through covert cells within Syria, through affiliated groups in other regions, and across digital platforms.
Escalating Numbers and Propaganda Concerns
Estimates indicate that between 9,000 and 10,000 ISIS combatants remain in detention in northeastern Syria, along with approximately 40,000 family members. A mass escape or release from these facilities would not only increase the group’s manpower but also serve as a major propaganda victory.
Two senior U.S. military officials, speaking to the Times on condition of anonymity, revealed that Washington is cautiously optimistic about potential counterterrorism cooperation with a new Syrian government.
“The initial indicators have been positive,” one official said. “The Syrian Ministry of Defense recently acted on U.S. intelligence to disrupt eight ISIS-planned attacks in Damascus.”
This marks a rare moment of indirect security coordination between the U.S. and the Syrian regime, which have had strained relations throughout the Syrian civil war.
U.S. Intelligence and Regional Response
In March, senior U.S. intelligence officials presented their annual global threat assessment to Congress, in which they highlighted ISIS’s intention to exploit instability in Syria, especially any weakening of the Assad regime, to stage prison breaks and mount renewed attacks.
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A Pentagon official, also speaking anonymously, noted that ISIS claimed responsibility for 294 attacks in Syria in 2024, a significant rise compared to 121 attacks in 2023. The UN’s ISIS Monitoring Team estimated that the group may have carried out as many as 400 attacks last year, while Syrian human rights observers suggest the actual number could be even higher.
In a regional effort to stem the tide, the foreign ministers of Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon met in Amman on March 9 to establish a joint operations center aimed at enhancing coordination in the fight against ISIS. The initiative seeks to strengthen existing regional and international efforts to eliminate the group’s presence and influence.
