Ramy Shafiek
Iran-Russia’s relationship in Syria has undergone fundamental transformations over the past decade, with both parties strengthening their support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime through close military and strategic coordination. However, recent geopolitical shifts, especially after the outbreak of the Ukrainian War, have reshaped Iran’s role in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Lebanon.
These developments have shown growing disparities between Moscow and Tehran in their approaches to Syria. While Russia has adopted a pragmatic approach to the evolving reality, Iran faces a real crisis that threatens its regional influence.
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Russian-Iranian Competition in Syria
Iranian researcher, Jadan Abdulrahman, speaking to +963, stresses that Tahran is growing concern over the developments in Syria, where Damascus is a major focus of its regional influence.
According to Abdulrahman, Iran’s concerns are reinforced by the growing Turkish influence, especially after Abdullah Ocalan’s call for the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and its subsequent regional implications which pose a direct challenge to Tehran’s influence.
According to Abdulrahman, Iran, which has relied on internal destabilization tactics in Syria, currently faces enormous challenges due to increasing international pressure, as well as the targeting of its troops and military forces by Israel and the United States-led international coalition.
Abdulrahman adds that these pressures have forced Tehran to adopt a “tactical latency” fearing further military escalation, particularly with increasing threats to its nuclear project.
Global Power Shifts and the Future of Iranian Influence
Moreover, Abdulrahman further points out that Russian-Turkish cooperation has become a key factor shaping the Syrian landscape, as Moscow prioritizes its interests through coordination with Ankara, at a time when Iranian influence appears to be declining.
Turkey is likely to secure the largest share of influence in Syria, while Russia remains focused on preserving its strategic positions, especially in Syrian ports, which are vital to Russia’s naval presence.
Regarding Iran-Russia relations, Abdulrahman expects significant shifts as a result of the US sanctions against Tehran, as well as possible rapprochement between Moscow and Washington. Such developments could weaken strategic cooperation between Iran and Russia, further isolating Tehran both politically and economically.
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Syria’s Political Landscape and Its Influence on Regional Influence
Political researcher Yasser al-Najjar emphasized the need for a deeper analysis of the evolving relationship between Moscow, Ankara and Thran in Syria, especially in light of recent developments within the Transitional Administration in Syria.
Najjar, speaking to +963, explains that Russia is actively seeking to maintain strong diplomatic ties with Turkey. This is demonstrated by the Russian Foreign Minister’s meeting with his Turkish counterpart, in conjunction with the Syrian Foreign Minister’s talks with Ankara, suggesting a trend towards redrawing Syria’s influence map sidelining Tehran.
Najjar adds that European efforts to pressure Syria, whether through economic sanctions or supporting minority groups, seek to weaken Russian influence in Damascus.
Meanwhile, Turkey is exploiting these pressures to strengthen its position in the Syrian dossier, posing additional challenges for Iran, which faces a clear decline in its influence within Syria and the region at large.
According to Najjar, Iran has entered a phase of “tactical calm” in Syria, where it can no longer impose its agenda as forcefully as before. As regional and international pressures escalated, Tehran is being forced to reassess its strategies, in a changing environment that no longer allows it the same margin of manoeuvre.
Ultimately, the Iranian-Russian alliance, once a cornerstone of support for the former Syrian regime, appears to be facing serious challenges that could reshape the political landscape of the entire region.
