Despite the ruins of war continuing to bear witness to a decade of international paralysis, a notable development has emerged behind the scenes in Riyadh. This followed the announcement by Osama al-Qadi, Senior Adviser at the Ministry of Economy in Syria’s interim government, of a proposal to convene an international conference on Syria’s reconstruction under US sponsorship and with the participation of international financial institutions.
The move has been described as a potential turning point in a file long suspended between destruction and sanctions. The proposed conference is viewed as a practical bridge between sanctions relief and the actual launch of reconstruction. However, experts caution against inflated expectations, stressing that any genuine reconstruction process remains contingent on a comprehensive political settlement.
Economic Ambition and Political Complexity
Renewed discussion of a proposed international conference on Syria’s reconstruction in the Saudi capital, Riyadh – under US auspices and with the involvement of international financial institutions – has once again drawn attention to one of the most complex dimensions of the Syrian conflict: can reconstruction be separated from politics, or has reconstruction itself become a political instrument?
Political analyst Najm al-Abdallah argues, in comments to +963, that the statements issued by Osama al-Qadi suggest that the conference, if held, would represent a pivotal moment aimed at addressing the structural obstacles to reconstruction – foremost among them the fragility of the banking sector, weak investor confidence, and Syria’s lack of integration into the global financial system.
He adds, however, that these priorities, important as they are, raise deeper questions that extend beyond economics to the heart of the regional and international political equation. The choice of Riyadh as host carries clear political significance. Saudi Arabia, seeking to consolidate its role as a regional actor capable of managing balances, appears well positioned to function as a dialogue platform between Damascus, Washington, and international financial institutions. Yet this role does not necessarily imply an outright embrace of the reconstruction project. Rather, it reflects an attempt to organise a potential reconstruction pathway under defined political and economic conditions, ensuring that reconstruction does not become a political or financial burden for its sponsors.
Al-Abdallah sees the Riyadh conference as transcending economics, constituting a political test of Saudi Arabia’s role as a balancing platform between Damascus and Washington, and an attempt to structure reconstruction under international conditions and US sponsorship that could lead to a form of ‘conditional financial normalisation’. The central question remains: does capital precede a political solution, or does reconstruction remain hostage to incomplete settlements?
He concludes by noting that the estimated cost of reconstruction – around USD 216 billion according to the World Bank – exceeds the capacity of any single conference. Sustainable security is also essential: investors are inherently risk-averse, and any border instability – such as Israeli activity in the south or Islamic State operations in the Badia – freezes capital flows. Reconstruction, he stresses, is not merely about ‘cement and steel’, but about a comprehensive legislative and political environment. If convened, the Riyadh conference will be an international test of intentions before it becomes a funding conference. Reconstruction begins with trust, not money, and is measured not by the scale of pledges but by the state’s ability to manage funds transparently and responsibly. In the absence of a comprehensive political settlement, Syria’s reconstruction remains a deferred project – discussed more than it is financed.
Read also: Syria’s Economy After Caesar: A Numbers-Driven Assessment
Has Damascus Created an ‘Investor-Friendly’ Environment?
Syrian economic expert Tamim al-Qahtani, based in Riyadh, told +963 that Osama al-Qadi’s characterisation of the conference as an opportunity to build a ‘practical bridge’ between sanctions relief and genuine reconstruction captures the core idea that must be examined: reconstruction will not be a mere ‘political decision’, but the outcome of deep technical understandings concerning banking sector reform, sovereign and investment guarantees, and Syria’s gradual reintegration into the global financial system.
In this conception, the conference resembles an operational hub for designing a ‘financial roadmap’ that precedes bulldozers and concrete – defining who will finance what, how, and under which legal framework.
Al-Qahtani argues that the fragility of Syria’s economic and banking infrastructure represents the central risk to any international investment. The banking system suffers from weak domestic and international confidence, lack of effective integration into global financial networks, and limited capacity to finance large-scale projects or guarantee the repatriation of profits and capital. These challenges are compounded by weak legislation and the absence of a stable, credible legal, regulatory, and judicial framework – conditions that cannot be bypassed. As a result, the Syrian market remains high-risk even in the event of sanctions relief, leaving fundamental questions unanswered regarding property protection, dispute resolution, and freedom of capital movement once investments enter the country.
Can the Conference Bridge Sanctions and Reconstruction?
Economic analyst Mahmoud al-Hassan told +963 that the anticipated Riyadh conference is being viewed as a potential shift in how the Syrian file is approached – moving weight away from stalled political negotiations towards economic support platforms. Al-Qadi’s remarks go beyond fundraising, pointing instead to an attempt to re-engineer Syria’s banking system and integrate it into the global financial network under unprecedented US cover and sponsorship. This suggests understandings that may circumvent the obstacles posed by the Caesar Act and restore to Riyadh a leadership role in the file through ‘financial diplomacy’.
However, this trajectory remains conditional on sovereign guarantees and deep banking and legal reforms to rebuild international trust, amid major challenges related to exchange-rate stability, the isolation of Syrian banks, transfer monitoring, and the fragility of governing laws. These factors place the protection of foreign capital at the heart of any effort to activate Syria’s economy.
Is the Hour of Reconstruction Approaching?
Social researcher Siham Marwan told +963 that the significance of the conference lies in its implications for the future of millions of Syrians and for the economic and social stability of the region, as well as in its potential impact on Syrians’ ability to remain in their country and stem migration. While the discussion revolves around figures and investments, the humanitarian dimension remains central.
Against the backdrop of UN estimates placing losses at over USD 400 billion, and with more than 90 per cent of Syrians living below the poverty line, the Riyadh conference raises profound questions – particularly among Syrian youth – about whether it could open the door to genuine employment opportunities, a knowledge economy, and start-ups supported by clear legislation, or whether it will amount merely to large-scale contracts for major corporations. Marwan highlights the potential role of the diaspora as a financial and technological bridge for reconstruction, stressing that rebuilding does not mean restoring bricks alone, but rebuilding trust and the social contract.
Any reconstruction detached from addressing the root causes of the crisis, she warns, risks entrenching new economic realities without improving Syrians’ lives. The success of the conference, if held, will depend on Damascus’s ability to offer real guarantees to citizens – transforming ‘reconstruction dollars’ from promises made in hotel halls into tangible change in devastated cities.
Read also: Syria’s Economy One Year On: What Has Really Changed?
What Can the Conference Actually Achieve?
Economic expert Dr Hassan Murad told +963 that if the Riyadh conference is convened as promoted, it could operate on two levels. Politically, it would symbolically confirm that Syria’s reconstruction file has entered the realm of international and regional understandings rather than remaining a slogan. Economically, it would seek to crystallise concrete mechanisms, such as programmes to reform the banking sector under the supervision or guidance of international financial institutions, and the development of sovereign and commercial investment-guarantee instruments to encourage Arab and foreign capital.
Murad adds that the distinction between a conference that launches a new dynamic and one that ends with a polished closing statement will be measured by the parties’ ability to translate broad headings into practical steps that are time-bound, politically protected, and legally anchored.
