“Dollar fell for two days, then everything returned worse than before.” For many Syrians, this sums up their experience following the announcement of the US sanctions lift. Between hopes pinned on a political decision and a daily reality measured in prices, citizens again confront rapid currency fluctuations they cannot comprehend or absorb.
In just a few days, the Syrian pound depreciated, then swung violently, while commodity prices remained high or increased further. Citizens describe the phenomenon as “illusory declines and real increases,” a pattern confirmed by economists such as Dr Mohammed Taysir Al-Faqih, who stresses that early improvements are psychological and speculative rather than indicative of actual economic recovery or production growth.
Political and Economic Context
On 19 December 2025, Syria entered a new political and economic phase after the US Senate voted on 17 December to lift sanctions. This decision, widely described as pivotal, renewed public hope for gradual relief after years of economic pressure, declining purchasing power, and shrinking incomes.
Despite this, the reality on the ground has been turbulent. Immediately after the Senate vote, the parallel market rate for the dollar fell sharply from 11,900–12,000 SYP to around 10,900 SYP, interpreted by many as a direct response to political events and a signal of potential economic improvement.
Ahmed Al-Salem, a civil servant from rural Damascus, told +963: “We expected the dollar decline to immediately affect prices. But it only dropped for a day or two before bouncing back, without any market improvement.”
Within a day, the dollar returned close to 12,000 SYP, confusing the market and raising doubts about the nature of these fluctuations, particularly as the scenario repeated several times over a short period.
No Real Recovery
Prior to the official announcement, the pound had already shown temporary improvement, which repeated around 19 December when the dollar fell to 10,800–10,900 SYP, only to rise within 24 hours to roughly 11,600 SYP.
Hani Mohammed from Daraa said the movements were “entirely unnatural,” noting that the dollar fell by nearly 2,000 SYP in one day without any reduction in commodity prices. The rapid swings, which involved dozens of rises and falls in a few days, raised public questions about the real impact of sanctions relief, widely understood as needing time and clear implementation channels.
Food and consumer goods prices remained elevated, showing no significant decline even when the dollar fell, and rose faster than the currency when it rebounded. Merchants justified this by describing the dollar drop as “illusory” and any rise as “real.” For example, one litre of vegetable oil sold for 22,000 SYP when the dollar was at 12,000 SYP, stayed the same at 10,900 SYP, and rose to 24,000 SYP when the dollar returned to 12,000 SYP.
Ahmed, who relies on monthly remittances, described losing approximately 100,000 SYP in hours due to these fluctuations. Fikriya Um Abdullah, an education sector employee, explained that her 1,140,000 SYP salary lost purchasing power amid the instability, making monthly budgeting nearly impossible.
Expert Analysis: Temporary Optimism
Dr Mohammed Taysir Al-Faqih, economist at Damascus University, told +963 that the recent currency moves reflect a short-term psychological improvement in the pound, driven by speculation and political optimism rather than real economic recovery. The pound rose 7–10% initially in the parallel market, dropping from around 11,900 SYP to 11,000 SYP per dollar, before stabilising with a persistent gap between official and market rates.
Al-Faqih noted that production and investment indicators show no tangible improvement, and that short-term speculative trades, along with US sanctions relief expectations and potential foreign remittances, temporarily boosted market confidence without underlying economic activity.
Why Prices Did Not Fall
High fixed costs – including electricity, transport, fuel, and production inputs – and existing stock purchased at high prices prevented price drops. Market psychology, scepticism, and dollar-indexed pricing also maintained elevated rates, with price differences between shops reaching 15% despite thousands of regulatory inspections.
Al-Faqih emphasised that while lifting sanctions is politically important, it will not produce tangible relief unless accompanied by serious government intervention to stabilise markets, protect consumers, support local production, and curb the market chaos that citizens bear daily.
