Last Wednesday, the US Senate voted on the new fiscal year US defense budget, which included a provision related to repealing the “Caesar Act” imposed on Syria. The measure passed with the approval of 77 members and the opposition of 20, thereby closing the chapter on one of the most influential laws affecting Syrian conditions since the outbreak of the crisis in the country, and opening the way for a new opportunity and phase in which improvement and recovery are hoped for at the security, political, and economic levels. This comes despite most analysts arguing that the move is not merely a humanitarian measure intended solely to support Syria’s post Assad recovery, but is rather linked to a political and economic strategy and orientations related primarily to US interests.
Last week, the US House of Representatives approved the bill repealing the Caesar sanctions imposed on Syria as part of the vote on the new defense authorization. The majority of House members voted in favor of the bill after extensive deliberations and two revotes. The head of political affairs at the Syrian American Council, Mohammad Alaa Ghanem, told the Syrian Arab News Agency SANA that the House approved the bill with 312 votes in favor and 112 against.
The US move, although seen as an important step toward supporting political and economic recovery in Syria, is also viewed as a new way of dealing with the situation in the country and imposing a form of “soft oversight” over the policies and practices of the interim Syrian government, pushing it further toward engagement with the Western track and the US strategy in the Middle East, and toward adherence to the conditions imposed in this regard, including peace with Israel at later stages.
American strategic dimensions
“Although the administration of US President Donald Trump markets the lifting of Caesar sanctions on Syria as a humanitarian step to support Syrians affected by the war, the political context indicates that the decision carries dimensions related to the strategic interests of the United States,” according to Syrian academic and political researcher Talal Mustafa, who resides in France. He considers that “this is done through Washington’s attempt to improve its image domestically and internationally, as the decision carries a superficial humanitarian dimension, but in essence is a strategic tool to achieve political and economic goals for the US administration”.
Mustafa tells +963 that “the official US conditions for Syria in exchange for lifting Caesar relate to human rights, the commitment of the interim Syrian government to international resolutions, and the possibility of participating in reconstruction under international oversight. As for the undeclared objectives, they include curbing Russian and Iranian influence in Syria by opening an American or Western economic window that allows pressure on the Syrian authorities in strategic economic and military files, in addition to preparing the Syrian government to participate in future regional settlements, especially with Israel, particularly in the files of gas, oil, and reconstruction”.
A bargaining tool
He points out that “among the undeclared objectives as well is the use of lifting the Caesar sanctions as a bargaining tool with the new Syrian government, enabling Washington to benefit from areas of influence or to obtain guarantees related to counterterrorism through participation in the International Coalition against ISIS, and ensuring military and security stability along the border with Israel. In other words, the undeclared objectives relate to expanding US influence and rearranging US economic interests in Syria in particular and the Middle East in general”.
The researcher in international relations at Cairo University, Ismail Turki, agrees with Mustafa that “the lifting of Caesar sanctions on Syria cannot be read as absolute support for the Syrian government from a humanitarian perspective, nor as a free political concession, but rather as a calculated geopolitical shift through which Washington seeks to reshape its tools of influence in Syria, moving from a strategy of isolation and comprehensive sanctions to a strategy of containment and influence through investment and conditional assistance”.
A turning point in the American vision
In statements to +963, Turki stresses that “lifting the sanctions represents a pivotal turning point in the American and international vision toward the Syrian file. However, this step does not reflect a complete shift from a policy of pressure to a policy of support, but rather signals a reengineering of influence tools, through moving from comprehensive sanctions to more flexible and precise political and economic pressure mechanisms. Accordingly, the expected political scene will not be simple, but in my view will be highly complex, to the extent that it can be described as conditional support followed by continuous pressure”. He believes that “lifting the sanctions constitutes support for the interim government for several considerations, foremost of which is enhancing legitimacy through the economic gateway, as lifting them opens the door to activating the economy through the flow of investments, facilitating financial transfers, and reconnecting with the global financial system, in addition to breaking financial and diplomatic isolation by providing reassurance to international banks. It also provides political and legal cover to accelerate the path of Arab and regional normalization”.
He explains that “sanctions are always used as a tool to change political behavior, and the process of lifting them does not end this role but transforms it into conditional political pressure through aid, investment, and reconstruction, which allows greater room for maneuver for the parties sponsoring this pressure”. He considers that “the files of accountability for perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity remain present as political and legal pressure tools, and that any actual US support will remain linked to the extent of the Syrian government’s responsiveness to Washington’s regional agenda, particularly with regard to Iranian and Russian influence, advancing the plan for relations with Israel, regional integration, and incorporating Syria into the Abraham Accords, or even concluding a peace agreement that meets many of Israel’s demands”.
Restoring economic activity
Mustafa affirms that “lifting the sanctions will enable the interim Syrian government to restore some economic activity and open a window for foreign investment, allowing room to improve internal living conditions without making fundamental concessions. However, there will be no direct support for the government, but rather a tool of soft pressure, meaning granting it relative freedom to reorder its economy and policies. The decision will also be used to market the government to Syrians as having succeeded in breaking the sanctions. Accordingly, it can be said that lifting them is flexible political pressure that grants Damascus limited freedom in exchange for political and security commitments”.
After the US House of Representatives voted in favor of repealing “Caesar” on December 10 of this month, the newspaper The National revealed the conditions imposed by the United States in order to lift the law on Syria, and the measures that will be taken if the interim Syrian government does not comply with these conditions. It stated that “repealing the Caesar sanctions requires reviewing the situation in Syria every 180 days over four years, to ensure that Damascus is taking appropriate steps regarding the conditions imposed for lifting them”.
The required measures include combating ISIS, removing foreign fighters from government positions in Syria, and preserving the rights of religious and ethnic minorities. It said that the bill includes “the possibility for the United States to impose sanctions on individuals if it finds that the Syrian government has deviated from the correct path in these objectives, in order to compel it to adjust its course”.
US President Donald Trump had approved in June the lifting of executive sanctions on Syria, after announcing in May their complete removal. This coincided with the US State Department issuing a decision to suspend the Caesar sanctions imposed on Syria for 180 days, renewable, in implementation of Trump’s decision during his visit to Saudi Arabia in May and his meeting with interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
It is noteworthy that the “Caesar Act” of 2019 imposed wide ranging sanctions on Syria targeting individuals, companies, and institutions linked to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria from 2000 until his ouster in late 2024 by opposition forces led by interim Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa.
