Iraq is entering a new political moment following the announcement of parliamentary election results on 17 November, amid intense local, regional, and international pressures. These pressures are shaping the nature of governance and the political system, driven by the interests of influential actors such as the United States, Iran, and Arab states. The context is especially sensitive after significant regional shifts, including the decline of Tehran’s influence and Washington’s adoption of a policy aimed at ending the dominance of armed factions and all non-state actors in the Middle East.
The results of the parliamentary elections showed the “Construction and Development Coalition”, led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani, taking the lead with 46 seats in the new 329-member parliament. It was followed by the “Taqaddum” Party, led by former parliamentary speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi, with 36 seats; the “State of Law” coalition under former Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki with 29 seats; and “Sadiqoon,” led by Asaib Ahl al-Haq commander Qais Al-Khazali, with 28 seats. The Kurdistan Democratic Party under Masoud Barzani secured 27 seats. In total, Shia coalitions and lists won 187 seats, Sunni forces 77 seats, Kurdish parties 56 seats, in addition to 9 quota seats.
Nature of the Political System
Since the first parliamentary elections in 2005, Iraq’s political system has functioned on sectarian power-sharing. Under this formula, the premiership goes to the Shia, the speakership of parliament to the Sunnis, and the presidency to the Kurds. The actual selection of individuals for these posts, however, depends on alliances and parliamentary blocs that may cut across sectarian lines, leading to a contentious selection process involving numerous domestic and external actors. This dynamic continues to hinder attempts to develop the political system on legal grounds independent of partisanship and factional bargaining.
Since its formation in March 2021, the Shia “Coordination Framework” – comprising several Iran-aligned political forces – has dominated the Shia political scene and the process of selecting the prime minister. It builds its alliances with other parliamentary blocs around this orientation. On the Sunni side, the Taqaddum Party under Al-Halbousi and the “Siyadah” coalition led by Khamis Al-Khanjar remain the key actors. In the Kurdish arena, the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan headed by Bafel Talabani continue to hold the primary positions.
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Who Are the Main Candidates?
Two days ago, a source inside the Shia Coordination Framework told the local agency Shafaq News that the list of leading candidates for the premiership has narrowed considerably. Acting Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani tops the list, followed by Nouri Al-Maliki and Haider Al-Abadi, with Basra governor Asaad Al-Eidani also among the shortlisted names. The same source suggested that intelligence chief Hamid Al-Shatri is likely to be excluded due to reports of his close relations with Syria’s interim president Ahmed Al-Sharaa.
Yet Iraq’s political landscape since 2005 has never been purely domestic. It remains shaped by regional and international considerations, particularly Iran’s extensive influence and clear U.S. demands to restore state authority, dismantle Iran-aligned armed factions, remove their weapons, and prevent any political or military body close to Tehran from attaining high office.
The U.S. envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, wrote on X in late October that “Iraq’s leadership has taken important steps to guide the country in the right direction, both politically and economically. Iraq has begun to reemerge as a sovereign state, working to reduce external influences, bring all weapons under the control of the legitimate government, and open its markets to international companies to help rebuild and develop the country’s fragile infrastructure.” He also noted that the country stands at a critical crossroads: it can either build independent institutions capable of enforcing the law and attracting investment, or fall back into the complexities that have weighed it down in recent years.
Internal and External Factors
Strategic expert Ahmad Al-Sharifi, based in Baghdad, says that Iraq is experiencing a mix of internal developments, regional pressures, and direct international involvement. For this reason, he argues, the next government will be formed under American decision and sponsorship – but without the coordination with Iran that once existed. Washington, he says, is moving to reverse what he describes as the “Islamization” of state institutions. This requires a prime minister aligned with the United States, committed to a regional and international order, and ready to confine weapons to the hands of the state. The candidate’s background – whether nationalist, ideological, or otherwise – will be a determining factor.
Al-Sharifi tells +963 that the United States may soon prefer a prime minister with a military background, someone with the courage to pursue a potentially forceful confrontation if needed. He argues that there is a regional inclination toward comprehensive peace and the Abraham Accords under certain conditions, but ultimately Washington is advancing a Middle East project that will influence the composition of Iraq’s next government and the process of forming it.
Read also: Iran’s Eyes on Iraq’s Elections
No Consensus on a Single Candidate
Political researcher Abbas Al-Ardawi, based in Baghdad, says that no final consensus has been reached on a candidate for the premiership. The Coordination Framework is discussing nine to ten names – a list that may expand or shrink – while still debating the mechanism through which nominees should be selected. He agrees that Maliki, Abadi, and Sudani remain the most prominent contenders.
Al-Ardawi, however, disagrees with Al-Sharifi regarding the strength of factions aligned with armed groups. He notes that the elections produced a substantial parliamentary bloc for them, with some eighty to ninety MPs coming from party backgrounds associated with these forces. He sees an alignment across Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia politics and argues that claims of U.S. rejection of certain candidates are no more than rumours. Labelling any candidate as “Iranian-aligned,” he says, is imprecise and contradicts the principles of Iraqi national sovereignty.
On Wednesday, Salam Al-Zubaidi, spokesman for the “Victory” coalition led by former Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, told Shafaq News that Al-Abadi declined to run for the premiership. His name had been proposed by the Coordination Framework, but he reportedly cited domestic and external obligations and the challenges ahead as reasons for stepping back. These factors, he said, form key criteria that must guide the choice of the next prime minister and will require further discussions.
The Coordination Framework has already retreated from most of the conditions it set after the elections. It first demanded that the nominee should not lead a political bloc, should not have previously run for or held the premiership, before settling on a single condition: that the candidate must not have any legal cases or corruption allegations.
Toward a New Political Balance?
Alaa Al-Khatib, editor-in-chief of Al-Mostaqil newspaper and based in London, tells +963 that the most likely premiership candidate will be someone close to Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition, though not Maliki himself. The Coordination Framework, he says, is looking for an “independent” figure who meets criteria set by the bloc, and the prevailing information suggests that the favoured candidate is indeed close to Maliki and the Framework, even if not previously prominent.
He believes that no political force – Shia, Sunni, or Kurdish – will be able to alter Iraq’s established post-2003 political tradition. The United States, however, will have a role and a perspective on the choice, even if not imposed. Washington will lean toward a figure acceptable to American preferences and away from Iran’s closest allies, though without preventing them from participating in forming the government.
There remains, he says, a strong Iraqi desire for a balanced and independent decision-making process. The Coordination Framework will attempt to strike a middle path between American and Iranian expectations without fully severing ties with Tehran. The political equation will not shift dramatically, but armed confrontation may give way to political manoeuvring as many faction leaders have transitioned into politics. The country, he argues, is moving toward a trajectory closer to the United States.
Al-Sharifi adds that it is time to implement federalism, as Iraq’s constitution defines the system as federal. This would draw new administrative boundaries and require a high level of political awareness from the next prime minister and commander-in-chief to understand the roles of federal and local governments and the structure of regional and national security forces.
Last week, leaders of the main Sunni forces announced the establishment of the “National Political Council” to unify positions and decisions following the elections. They held a meeting in Baghdad that included the heads of five major Sunni parties, led by former speaker Mohammed Al-Halbousi of Taqaddum and Khamis Al-Khanjar of the Siyadah coalition. Sources inside Taqaddum said Al-Halbousi is the strongest contender for the next speakership of parliament.
