The United Nations, in collaboration with the Lebanese government, has introduced the first plan of its kind for the voluntary return of Syrian refugees following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. The initiative focuses on informal camps in Lebanon and aims to repatriate between 200,000 and 400,000 refugees over the course of 2025, in continued coordination with the new Syrian authorities.
Lebanese Minister of Social Affairs, Haneen Al-Sayyed, stated that the plan offers incentives including $100 per individual before departure and $400 per family upon arrival in Syria, along with free transportation and exemption from border fees.
“I believe this is an important and promising start… and we expect the number of returnees to gradually rise,” she told Reuters.
She added that around 11,000 refugees had registered during the first week of implementation, expecting the numbers to increase steadily with ongoing coordination between Lebanese and Syrian sides. For its part, the new Syrian government announced the country is now “open to all its citizens,” marking a notable shift in refugee policy.
This policy change is supported by a UN survey conducted in early 2025, in which approximately 30% of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries expressed willingness to return, compared to just 2% under the previous regime.
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Legal Framework
From a legal perspective, London-based migration researcher Ali Al-Qaddoumi emphasized that any refugee return plan must be grounded in international law, particularly the 1951 Refugee Convention.
“Return is not considered legitimate unless it is fully voluntary and takes place in a safe environment that ensures the refugee’s physical and legal security, while preserving dignity through access to basic living standards such as housing, care, and education,” he said.
Despite UN support for the plan, Al-Qaddoumi told +963 there are human rights concerns that question its compliance with international standards. These include the lack of mechanisms to individually verify voluntariness, repeated reports of arrests or enforced disappearances among returnees, and the absence of effective international oversight.
He noted: “Even though Lebanon has not signed the 1951 Convention, it remains bound by the principle of non-refoulement, meaning no refugee should be deported without their free and informed consent.”
Al-Qaddoumi underscored the legal obligations of the new Syrian government to ensure a safe environment for returnees, including protection from arbitrary detention, reissuance of civil documents, removal of security restrictions, and guarantees for property restitution or compensation.
He also pointed out that loss of documentation, particularly among children born in host countries, necessitates the establishment of documentation centers in cooperation with the UN to register cases retroactively and facilitate citizenship procedures.
Regarding accountability mechanisms, Al-Qaddoumi said appeals to UN bodies or international courts are theoretically possible but remain subject to complex and lengthy procedures and do not replace the need for practical on-the-ground guarantees.
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Reconstruction
Economist and academic Dr. Ziad Ayoub Arbash argued that “refugee return is a core issue that reflects the new Syrian state’s vision, if implemented correctly.” However, he warned of the fragile economic reality and the devastation in many areas that individuals cannot rehabilitate alone.
Speaking to +963, he said: “Returns in recent months have been partial and often not to refugees’ original homes,” stressing the need for a collective and structured approach.
Arbash proposed enacting a special law that merges investment with reconstruction, classifying return areas as disaster zones eligible for comprehensive investment incentives to attract international funding and strategic partnerships.
He estimated the required funding may exceed $200 billion, but said launching a clear, integrated plan could send a positive signal to the international community, especially if returnees are directly involved in rehabilitation efforts.
He explained that restoring approximately 280 construction-related professions could provide immediate income for returning families and help restart local economic activity. He called for detailed urban planning and the implementation of major projects through development firms in partnership with supportive nations.
Human Rights Guarantees
On the legal rights front, Ashraf Milad Roxy, a legal expert at the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, emphasized that “return is not legitimate unless it is voluntary, safe, and dignified,” stressing that responsibility lies jointly with the host state, UNHCR, and other relevant international organizations.
He told +963 that the Syrian government must present an official plan to the UN refugee agency, including clear mechanisms for refugee reintegration; especially targeting youth who left the country at a young age. He noted that comprehensive official records on Syrian families could help facilitate this effort.
However, Roxy expressed reservations about the feasibility of prosecuting rights violations in international courts, given that neither Syria nor Lebanon are signatories to several binding international judicial treaties. Still, he asserted that government assurances, while symbolic, are insufficient without enforceable guarantees, especially amid widespread refugee concerns about Syria’s security and institutional conditions.
On December 8, 2024, the Bashar al-Assad regime fell after more than two decades of absolute rule, marking the beginning of a new political era in Syria and thrusting the long-standing refugee issue back into the spotlight after more than a decade.
Since then, a gradual return of Syrian refugees has begun. According to estimates by the UNHCR, over 500,000 refugees have returned to Syria from neighboring countries by mid-May 2025; reflecting a cautious shift in the refugee landscape.
In Lebanon, approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees reside among four million Lebanese citizens, under mounting pressure from legal insecurity, employment restrictions, collapsing public services, and rising anti-refugee sentiment; exacerbated by declining UN funding, further deepening the crisis.
