With the fall of the Assad regime, hopes have surged over the possible return of Syrian migratory capital after decades of economic exile and security and political upheaval. Yet, what the new government has experienced in the aftermath of the sudden political shift suggests that the road to recovering this capital remains long and uncertain. A lack of legal incentives and the persistence of both political and economic restrictions continue to stall progress.
A Reuters investigation revealed that Bashar al-Assad smuggled money out of Syria via private jet into the United Arab Emirates in the final days before fleeing to Russia.
According to the report, Assad used a private Embraer Legacy 600 aircraft to transport cash, property and sensitive documents to Abu Dhabi. The aircraft reportedly made four consecutive flights during the last days of his rule.
Flight tracking data indicated that the jet carried bags containing large amounts of cash, including more than $ 500.000, as well as documents and hard drives outlining the structure of Assad’s commercial empire. The final flight took place on December 8, 2024, departing from the Russian military base at Hamimim near Latakia.
The investigation also stated that the new Syrian government is now working to recover assets connected to Assad’s financial network. These assets are believed to include bank accounts in Russia, Dubai, and other countries, including luxury apartments in Moscow, as well as potential assets in Hong Kong, the Gulf, and European countries.
But First, Political and Legislative Stability
Economist Samir Taweel believes that the return of Syrian capital is not a matter of timing, but rather contingent on the creation of a receptive investment environment. Speaking to +963, he noted that much of the displaced capital had already been reinvested in neighbouring countries, with some funds now settled in alternative economic environments. “These funds will only return when the right conditions are re-established within Syria,” he said.
Taweel emphasised that key prerequisites include rehabilitating the country’s electricity and water infrastructure, restoring basic services, and lifting international sanctions, especially those targeting Syria’s banking system.
He stressed that political stability is essential: “Large investment projects simply cannot take place under political uncertainty or continued global pressure.” According to Taweel, moving into a more investment-friendly phase would signal that Syrian society is transitioning into a sustainable development phase, one capable of attracting talent, capital, and projects.
Despite this cautiously optimistic outlook, he acknowledged that some small-scale enterprises have returned in recent months. However, these remain limited in scope and must prove their viability before larger investors can be expected to follow.
He concluded: “It’s critical that we act quickly to establish conditions that will encourage capital to return in the near future. Investors need confidence, infrastructure, and above all, stability to push their projects forward.”
Natural Delays Do Not Raise Concern
Academic and economist Dr. Imaduddin al-Musbah offers a different perspective. In response to a question from +963 on whether the return of migratory capital has been delayed, al-Musbah said, “No, in my estimation, the return of Syrian migratory capital has not been delayed at all. We are still at the very beginning of forming a new Syrian state after a long and difficult phase. Only forty days have passed since the country’s liberation from the Assad regime.”
Al-Musbah explained that launching new investments or transferring capital is inherently a complex process that requires time, time to study feasibility, assess risks, arrange logistics, and rebuild trust in the investment climate.
“What we are witnessing now is a cautious, step-by-step exploration of opportunities, which is entirely normal and expected at this very early stage,” he said.
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Sanctions: The Greatest Obstacle
When asked to what extent policy might hinder investment flows, al-Musbah pointed to Western sanctions on Syria, particularly those targeting the Central Bank and financial institutions, as the most critical and disruptive factor.
He described these sanctions as effectively paralysing international financial transfers, creating a high-risk environment that deters both domestic and foreign investors.
Moreover, al-Musbah criticised the continuation of these punitive measures, arguing it is neither logical nor just to punish the emerging Syrian state for the crimes of the ousted regime. “These sanctions must be lifted to allow Syrians the opportunity to rebuild their country and economy free from crippling restrictions,” he said.
At the same time, al-Musbah acknowledged a clear official and popular desire to attract capital from abroad. He emphasised that investment is a shared opportunity for Syrian expatriates and foreign investors alike. The Syrian economy urgently needs not only capital but also the expertise that often accompanies it.
While he admitted that the current scale of returning capital remains below expectations, he stressed that it is not absent, and that the barriers delaying its return impact everyone across the board.
Speaking to +963, he concluded: “We urgently need Syrian migratory capital and expertise to contribute to rebuilding and revitalising the economy. The owners of this capital are among the most knowledgeable about the local labour market and economic environment. At the same time, we must attract foreign investment to bring in modern technologies, effective management practices, and the large-scale funding we currently lack. The call is open to all, and efforts are underway to establish the legal and administrative framework needed, pending the removal of our biggest obstacle: international sanctions”.
Unofficial Figures and Promising Prospects
Some press reports estimate that the volume of Syrian capital held abroad exceeds $100 billion. If even a portion of this capital gradually returns, it could trigger a significant economic transformation and unlock broad development opportunities across sectors such as agriculture, industry, and technology.
However, this capital will not return automatically. Its reintegration into the domestic economy requires more than optimism, it depends on the creation of a secure environment, the implementation of a transparent and attractive investment law, greater banking flexibility, and meaningful international support for Syria’s stability following years of conflict and sanctions.
Although the post-Assad era remains in flux, all eyes are on whether the new Syrian state can succeed in turning the page on sanctions and political entanglements. The central question is whether it can finally open the gates of the economy to its sons and daughters abroad, those driven away by politics and war, so they may help rebuild the nation on their return.
