China has long pursued a cautious, pragmatic foreign policy in the Middle East, particularly when it comes to Syria. Throughout the past 14 years, china has been an ally of ousted president Bashar al-Assad, offering political and economic support and aligning with Russia to veto multiple UN resolutions against his regime.
Now, with Assad ousted and a new government in place, questions are rising over the future of Chinese-Syrian relations. Can Beijing recalibrate its approach and forge ties with the interim leadership in Damascus?
First Official Meeting
More than two months after Assad’s fall, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the president of the interim government in Syria, held his first official meeting with the Chinese Ambassador Shi Hongwei and his delegation at the People’s Palace in Damascus.
Despite the symbolic weight of this meeting, neither side released details about what was discussed. The lack of transparency has left analysts uncertain about China’s intentions and the extent of its willingness to engage with Syria’s new leadership.
The meeting followed a pointed statement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Spokesman Guo Jiakun, during a recent press conference, voiced Beijing’s “strong reservations” about international calls to lift sanctions on Syria. Jiakun urged the interim government to take concrete steps in addressing global concerns, particularly China’s, on counterterrorism efforts.
A “Wait-and-See” Approach from Beijing
Speaking to +963, Professor Said al-Zaghby of Suez Canal University in Egypt said the new Syrian administration is eager to build strong ties with global powers, including China, as it looks to spur reconstruction efforts. However, he noted that Beijing appears to be adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach.
“China is waiting for a political solution and stable environment in Syria before it defines the nature of its relationship with the interim government or opens channels of reconstruction and investment,” al-Zaghby explained. He added that the ongoing U.S. and Western sanctions may deter Chinese companies from entering the Syrian market in full force.
According to al-Zaghby, if the new Syrian government embraces a pragmatic foreign policy, Syria is likely to maintain strong ties with Beijing, particularly given China’s past support for Damascus at the UN Security Council. Nevertheless, if the government pivots toward the West, especially amid improving ties with Turkey, China’s role could gradually diminish.
Terrorism and Uyghur File Remain Flashpoints
China has also remained vocal on one particularly sensitive issue: the presence of Uyghur fighters in Syria. The matter has long been a concern for Beijing, both during and after Assad’s rule, particularly after some Uyghur militants reportedly secured leadership roles within Syria’s Defense Ministry.
On the day of Assad’s ousting last December, fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) released a video claiming, “We fought in Homs and Idlib, and we will continue fighting in East Turkistan,” referencing the term they use for Xinjiang, China’s western province.
Ibrahim al-Aseel, a researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told +963 that China’s engagement with the new Syrian government hinges on several key factors: its counterterrorism cooperation, how it handles the Uyghur fighters file, the formation of an inclusive government, and an end of violations on the Syrian coast.
Al-Aseel emphasized that granting Syrian nationality and military ranks to Uyghur militants is deeply troubling for Beijing. “The Turkistan Islamic Party, formally founded in 2015, still dreams of seceding from China. That makes its presence in Syria a critical issue for Beijing,” he said.
China researcher, Ali Mahmoud, noted in a statement to +963 that Damascus would likely make efforts to avoid letting the TIP jeopardize future relations. “China will not allow its relationship with Syria to hinge solely on the presence of Uyghur fighters,” Mahmoud said. “As long as the interim government addresses Beijing’s concerns and prevents the group’s influence from spilling beyond Syria’s borders, cooperation can move forward”.
China Belt and Road Project
Beijing is looking to deepen its ties with the new Syrian administration, driven in part by Syria’s strategic location along the path of China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
The Belt and Road Initiative is a massive Chinese infrastructure effort, often described as the largest in human history. It traces its conceptual roots to the Silk Road of the 19th century, aiming to connect China to the rest of the world through trade and transport networks.
Although Syria formally joined the initiative in 2022, it has yet to attract major Chinese investments. The reasons are multifaceted, with Western sanctions playing a primary role. Researcher Ibrahim al-Aseel noted that Syria’s accession hasn’t translated into tangible projects, as bilateral trade has dropped to just a quarter of what it was in 2011. He added that Syria continues to be an unattractive investment destination due to persistent instability and sanctions.
According to Professor Said al-Zaghby, two scenarios could shape the future relationship between Damascus and Beijing. In the first, China expands its investments inside Syria, becomes a key player in reconstruction, and provides limited financial support, focusing primarily on infrastructure projects tied to the Belt and Road.
The second scenario involves China maintaining a degree of distance, offering diplomatic support without deep economic engagement to avoid conflict with Western powers. “The relationship will remain strong politically,” al-Zaghby said, “but it will not reach the level of strategic alliance as with Russia”.
American-Chinese Conflict
Amid escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, and with U.S. President Donald Trump once again threatening conflict, Syria’s growing closeness to China could carry major geopolitical implications. While the new partnership may offer Damascus a much-needed economic boost, it could also lead to further pressure and sanctions from the United States.
“If Trump escalates his threats and this turns into a trade war or limited military conflict with China, it could derail Chinese investment in Syria,”al-Zaghby said.
“Washington may respond economically or militarily to prevent Syria from becoming a base for Chinese influence in the region”.
He added that future scenarios will depend largely on Damascus’ ability to manage the East-West balance. Gulf states, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are seeking to rebuild ties with Syria. However, China’s deeper involvement may make them more cautious, and wary of getting entangled in an American-Chinese confrontation, even though all three countries are both are BRICS members.
Al-Zaghby further noted that Washington is unlikely to tolerate any significant expansion of Chinese influence in the Middle East. “The issue isn’t just what the U.S. wants,” he said. “It’s whether it has the capacity to contain China’s presence in the region.”
Analyst Ali Mahmoud raised a crucial question wondering whether the U.S. might consider backing the Turkistan Islamic Party as a counterweight to China, especially given that Trump removed the group from the U.S. terrorism list in 2020.
Observers say the new Syrian government is unlikely to reject closer ties with China, and vice versa, but the road ahead is complicated. Terrorism concerns, particularly related to Uyghur fighters in Syria, continue to be a critical obstacle. For relations to move forward, Damascus must address China’s fear of cross-border threats that could eventually reach its own territory.
