By: Hewler Hakim
Reuters, citing diplomatic sources, reports that Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, recently met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov to discuss several critical issues, including Russian debts, the return of frozen Syrian funds in Moscow, and the future of Bashar Al-Assad. The pressing question now is: Will Moscow comply with Al-Sharaa’s demands in exchange for retaining its military influence in Syria?
According to Reuters sources, Al-Sharaa requested the return of Syrian funds allegedly deposited in Moscow by Assad. However, the Russian delegation, led by Bogdanov, denied the existence of such assets. Additionally, Al-Sharaa called for the cancellation of Syria’s outstanding debt to Russia, which is estimated at approximately $23 billion.
The Truth Behind Syria’s Frozen Funds in Russia
The Financial Times previously reported that Assad’s central bank transferred around $250 million in cash to Moscow between 2018 and 2019. This occurred when the ousted Syrian president was financially indebted to the Kremlin for military support, while members of his inner circle secretly purchased assets in Russia.
Dr. Assef Melhem, director of the GSM Research and Studies Center in Moscow, stated in an exclusive interview with +963 that “there is no concrete evidence confirming the existence of Assad’s frozen funds in Russia.” He speculated that any money sent to Russia was likely transported via aircraft rather than through bank transfers to avoid scrutiny.
Melhem explained that using aircraft for cash transfers helped Russia avoid complications with Western financial institutions. “Russian banks dealing in dollars and euros have accounts in American and European banks, making it difficult to process such transactions unnoticed,” he noted. He added that, while some smaller banks may have facilitated minor fund transfers, larger sums would have required physical transportation by air.
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Will Russia Relinquish Influence in Exchange for Debt Relief?
Analysts are divided on whether Russia will agree to return Assad’s assets and forgive Syria’s debt in exchange for continued military influence.
Melhem argued that “Russia is unlikely to comply with Al-Sharaa’s demands, as the new Syrian administration lacks the leverage to impose conditions on Moscow.” Conversely, Dmitry Bridzhe, director of the Russian Studies Unit at the Center of Arab-Eurasian Studies, suggested that Russia might adopt a pragmatic approach.
In an exclusive statement to +963, Bridzhe stated that “Russia may release Assad’s assets and cancel Syria’s debt, as it did with African nations, in order to safeguard its strategic interests in Syria.” He also indicated that discussions regarding the fate of Russian military bases in Syria would be crucial in the coming months.
According to Bridzhe, Russia recognizes that relying on the Assad regime was a mistake, so it is expected to adopt a more pragmatic approach by fostering relations with the new Syrian administration across various sectors. In addition, Moscow may introduce specific economic and trade initiatives, contribute to reconstruction efforts, and support the formation and training of a new Syrian army.
He also emphasized that Russia is waiting for positive signals from the new government, particularly the establishment of an inclusive administration that represents the aspirations of the Syrian people without marginalizing any sects, before taking its next steps.
Russia’s Military Presence and War Reparations
According to Reuters, Al-Sharaa and Bogdanov also discussed the future of Russia’s military bases in Syria—namely, the Tartus Naval Base and Hmeimim Airbase. Al-Sharaa reportedly seeks to renegotiate the 49-year lease agreement signed under Assad’s rule for Tartus and the indefinite lease for Hmeimim. His goal appears to be securing a more favorable deal for Syria while maintaining diplomatic ties with Moscow. Additionally, he requested compensation from Russia for the destruction inflicted upon Syria during the war.
Political analyst Ghassan Yassin told +963 that he expects Russia to retain its bases in Syria in exchange for “diplomatic and financial compensation.” However, he remained skeptical about war reparations. “Moscow may provide humanitarian aid to the Syrian people, but it will not assume responsibility for war-related damages, especially since Iran also played a significant role in Syria’s devastation,” he added.
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The Future of Assad and Russian Influence in Syria
The talks also touched on the potential extradition of Assad, but Russian sources indicated that Moscow is unlikely to comply. Melhem argued that “Russia has numerous strategic cards to play in Syria and does not need to hand over Assad to maintain its influence.” He warned that delivering Assad would severely damage Russia’s diplomatic standing, particularly with its allies.
Under international law, legal experts note that extraditing Assad could violate United Nations Resolution 1631, which prohibits the forced return of individuals granted humanitarian asylum.
Melhem further suggested that Israel views the new Syrian administration with suspicion due to its Islamist elements and growing Turkish influence. He believes Israel favors continued Russian military presence in Syria as a means of maintaining regional stability and ensuring greater freedom of movement for Israeli forces. “The historic and pragmatic ties between Moscow and Tel Aviv make Russia’s presence in Syria an indirect security buffer for Israel,” he explained.
Final Thoughts: A Strategic Balancing Act
Melhem concluded that Russia’s presence in Syria serves the interests of Israel, the United States, and Arab states, making it difficult for the new Syrian government, backed by Turkey, to push Russia out of the Syrian equation.
Bridzhe agreed with Melhem on the necessity of maintaining Russia’s role and military bases in Syria, as well as on Moscow’s refusal to hand over Assad. According to Bridzhe, such a move would be a blow to Russian interests and seen as a betrayal by Belarus, North Korea, and Iran.
Conversely, Yassin predicted that Russia might eventually hand over Assad as a goodwill gesture, provided it secures long-term agreements ensuring its military and economic interests in Syria.
As Syria’s transitional government seeks to assert its authority, Russia must carefully navigate its policies to balance strategic alliances with economic and military interests. Observers agree that Moscow’s next moves will be crucial in shaping Syria’s post-war trajectory.
