Moaz Al-Hamd
The Lebanese and Syrian Ministries of Defense have reached a ceasefire agreement following intense clashes along their shared border, which escalated from Sunday night into Monday evening. A statement from Lebanon’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that Minister of National Defense Major General Michel Munsi coordinated with his Syrian counterpart, Marhaf Abu Qasra, to discuss the deteriorating situation. “A ceasefire was agreed upon between the two sides, with continued coordination between Lebanese Army Intelligence and Syrian Intelligence to prevent further escalation,” the statement read.
The Syrian Ministry of Defense also acknowledged the agreement, stating that it aims to “maintain the ceasefire and enhance coordination and cooperation between the two sides.”
In an effort to de-escalate tensions, Lebanese Foreign Minister Yusuf Raji met with his Syrian counterpart, Assad al-Shibani, in Brussels to discuss the situation. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the meeting was conducted under the directives of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, with both sides agreeing to “maintain open communication to uphold the sovereignty of both states and prevent further deterioration.”
Fatal Clashes and Cross-Border Tensions
The violence erupted near Hermel in northeastern Lebanon following the killing of three individuals, whom Syria’s Ministry of Defense identified as Syrian army soldiers. The ministry accused Hezbollah of orchestrating the attack, an allegation the group strongly denied. The clashes resulted in multiple deaths and injuries, with media reports indicating that Lebanese villages were shelled from within Syrian territory. In response, the Lebanese Armed Forces retaliated with appropriate firepower and reinforced troop deployments to stabilize the area.
President Joseph Aoun responded firmly, stating, “What is happening along the eastern and northeastern borders cannot continue, and we will not allow it to persist.” He instructed the Lebanese Army to “respond decisively to any sources of fire.”
At the regional level, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Buqai pointed the finger at Israel, asserting that Tel Aviv was “the sole beneficiary of the clashes on the Syrian-Lebanese border.” He accused Israel of attempting to “divide Syria and weaken the region’s states,” warning that these tensions could be exploited to fuel further instability.
The Political and Military Implications
Analysts suggest that the border clashes reflect deeper political and military complexities. Damascus-based journalist Abdelhamid Tawfik told +963 that “dormant cells within Lebanon are actively stoking tensions,” adding that Hezbollah is facing increased challenges following recent shifts in Syria.
Tawfik noted that “certain actors within Hezbollah have an interest in escalating the situation,” while Syria “is attempting to resolve the security vacuum without direct coordination with the Lebanese government, which in turn is trying to assert its sovereignty.”
International relations expert Dr. Mohammed al-Yemen warned that the clashes represent a “dangerous development” that could escalate further if not swiftly contained. Speaking to +963, he argued that the U.S. and Israel “aim to weaken Lebanon by exploiting its internal instability” and that the ongoing border tensions “are part of broader efforts to curb Hezbollah’s influence in the region.”
Hezbollah, Syria, and the Struggle for Influence
From a Lebanese perspective, political analyst Saad Kiwan believes these clashes reflect Hezbollah’s efforts to maintain its influence in Syria and along the border. Speaking to +963, Kiwan argued that Hezbollah is trying to “prevent Syria’s new leadership, under Ahmed al-Shara’a, from asserting full control over Syrian territory—particularly in areas affecting Lebanese-Syrian relations.”
Kiwan emphasized that “the fall of the Baathist regime in Syria disrupted the supply lines that once allowed Hezbollah to move weapons, fighters, and illicit goods freely,” leading to the current friction.
On the Syrian side, its Ministry of Defense stated that military movements along the border aim to “expel Hezbollah from Syrian villages and territories used as hubs for smuggling and trade operations.” Analysts note that Damascus is working to reassert sovereignty over areas that were previously under Hezbollah’s indirect control as part of broader efforts to restructure Syria’s internal security landscape.
A Fragile Calm Amid Uncertain Prospects
Despite the ceasefire, the border remains a volatile flashpoint, entangled in security, political, and regional tensions. While Lebanon seeks to stabilize its internal security, Syria is pushing to reclaim authority over contested border regions. With mounting international and regional pressures—especially from the U.S. and Israel—the risk of renewed escalation looms large. The evolving relationship between Hezbollah and Syria’s new leadership will likely determine whether this ceasefire holds or if further clashes are inevitable.
