Hewler Hakim
Escalating Violence in the Syrian Coast
Since last Thursday, the Syrian coast has witnessed a rapid escalation in violence following clashes between Security forces of the new Syrian government and armed loyalists of the ousted Assad regime. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, including civilians, with reports of mass killings and summary executions. These developments have raised concerns about the possibility of a sectarian war, highlighting the severe challenges that threaten Syria’s stability. A pressing question emerges: Who is responsible for the eruption of violence in the Syrian coast, and who stands to benefit from it?
Clashes and Civilian Casualties
The coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus have been engulfed in intense fighting since last Thursday. The clashes began when elements of Assad regime loyalists launched an attack on security checkpoints and headquarters of the Security Forces under the Ministry of Interior in the new Syrian Government.
The attackers seized control of several areas before the security forces launched a large-scale military operation to reclaim them. This offensive led to violent confrontations and alleged human rights violations against civilians.
On Saturday, the Ministry of Defense announced its decision to withdraw military units that are not directly involved in the ongoing operations from coastal cities, urging all personnel to strictly adhere to directives preventing violations against civilians. The ministry also reaffirmed its commitment to prosecuting lawbreakers.
A military source informed +963 that the clashes have claimed the lives of 100 members of the Military Operations Administration and General Security forces, warning that the death toll may rise as the fighting continues. Meanwhile, the Syrian Network for Human Rights SNHR reported on Friday that 125 civilians were killed during the military operations in Latakia, Tartus, and Hama. The organization also alleged that non-Syrian elements within the Military Operations Administration have been executing civilians inside their homes indiscriminately.
Read also: Reactions to Escalating Clashes in Syria’s Coastal Regions
Who is Behind the Escalation?
In an exclusive statement to +963, Syrian political analyst Hossam Najjar, based in Poland, asserted that “remnants” of the previous regime, along with Iran, Hezbollah, and other entities seeking to obstruct stability under the new Syrian administration, are responsible for the escalation.
Najjar pointed to official Iranian statements as evidence of Tehran’s involvement, stating that “Iran has repeatedly warned that the Syrian people’s celebrations will not last.” He argued that the regime loyalists could not have launched such attacks without external financial and military support.
Additionally, reports suggest Iranian-Israeli cooperation, with elements from Iraqi factions and Hezbollah attempting to infiltrate Aleppo and Idlib. The plan, according to Najjar, was to gradually seize control of the coast by leveraging social media to incite unrest, targeting civilians through kidnappings and attacks, and then blaming General Security forces for these actions.
Russia is also implicated, with allegations of logistical support for the attackers. Najjar mentioned leaked recordings suggesting Russian involvement, prompting Moscow to issue a denial.
Other Factors Contributing to the Unrest
Political analyst Ahmed Al-Masalmeh highlighted the return of Ghayath Dala, a former commander of the notorious “Fourth Division” led by Maher Al-Assad. Dala recently announced the formation of the so-called “Military Council for the Liberation of Syria,” which Al-Masalmeh views as further proof that the recent coastal violence was premeditated.
Meanwhile, analyst Odai Ramadan pointed to deeper social and political grievances that have fuelled the current crisis. Since the fall of the Assad regime, sectarian tensions have remained high, exacerbated by repeated retaliatory attacks against the Alawite community. Many Alawites have been excluded from political participation and denied representation in the National Dialogue Conference, further alienating them from the new administration.
Additionally, thousands of employees from coastal areas have been arbitrarily dismissed from their positions without clear justification, intensifying feelings of marginalization. Ramadan argued that the new Syrian administration could have prevented the crisis by implementing transitional justice measures, holding perpetrators accountable, and fostering national reconciliation.
Read also: Clashes Erupt After Assad Loyalists Attack Hospital in Latakia
Human Rights Violations and the Legacy of the Assad Regime
Concerns are mounting that the new administration is adopting the same oppressive tactics as the previous regime. Al-Masalmeh emphasized the necessity for the new authorities to prosecute those responsible for violations against Alawites to dispel fears of sectarian persecution.
Najjar acknowledged that abuses have occurred but dismissed claims of mass killings as part of a media war aimed at exploiting Syrian bloodshed for political gains.
Mustafa Knefaty, the Security Director of Latakia, assured that any military personnel found guilty of assaulting civilians would be held accountable. He also urged the public to resist inflammatory rhetoric.
According to Fadel Abdul Ghani, Director of the Syrian Network for Human Rights, the death toll from attacks by Assad loyalists has risen to 121 General Security personnel and 26 civilians. He also reported that various foreign factions within the Military Operations Administration have been implicated in killings and looting, pushing the civilian death toll in Jableh, Banias, and Latakia to 164, including seven children and 13 women.
Abdul Ghani warned that the number of casualties is likely to rise in the coming days as more incidents are verified.
Read also: Security Forces Accused of Killing 125 Civilians in Syria Amid Escalating Clashes
Consequences of Continued Unrest
If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be catastrophic. Abdul Ghani stressed that de-escalation depends on the new Syrian administration’s willingness to apologize to victims, launch investigations into human rights violations, and ensure inclusive political participation for all communities. Failure to do so could lead to mass mobilization and civil war.
Najjar, however, expressed confidence that attempts to incite sectarian conflict will fail. He urged the authorities to maintain restraint, prosecute Assad regime “remnants”, and ensure that weapons remain under state control. He also called on Alawite community leaders to resist external efforts to incite division.
Observers agree that the Syrian coast is not merely experiencing random security disturbances but rather a calculated crisis fuelled by both internal and external actors. As the new administration seeks to assert control and neutralize regime loyalists, the humanitarian situation continues to worsen. To prevent further bloodshed and chaos, immediate action is needed, including holding perpetrators accountable and ensuring the political inclusion of all Syrian communities.
