{"id":40784,"date":"2025-12-24T11:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T11:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/?p=40784"},"modified":"2025-12-24T11:14:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T11:14:00","slug":"post-caesar-syria-statehood-on-trial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/24\/12\/2025\/post-caesar-syria-statehood-on-trial\/","title":{"rendered":"Post-Caesar Syria: Statehood on Trial"},"content":{"rendered":"

The repeal of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act was not an isolated decision, nor does it signal a definitive shift in US policy toward Syria. Rather, it reflects a phase of policy recalibration, reshaping tools of engagement with a country emerging from years of conflict, institutional collapse, and economic devastation. Laden with political symbolism and economic weight, the move places Syria at a new threshold \u2013 one that offers opportunity but also carries serious risks. At its core, it revives the fundamental question of the state, not as a slogan, but as a system of governance capable of managing society, resources, and internal divisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ending Caesar, long one of Washington\u2019s harshest economic pressure instruments, does not mean the end of conditionality. Instead, it marks a shift from collective punishment to a granular testing mechanism, where actions matter more than rhetoric. By embedding the decision within the US National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) \u2013 a nearly $900 billion framework \u2013 Washington reaffirmed that Syria remains part of its strategic calculations, and that any political or economic opening will remain tied to benchmarks related to security, stability, and human rights.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under the new framework, Damascus is subject to a four-year monitoring process, with biannual reports submitted to Congress assessing government performance on highly sensitive files, including counterterrorism efforts against ISIS and foreign fighters, drug trafficking, minority protection, and accountability for violations committed after December 8, 2024. Failure in two consecutive assessments allows the US president to reimpose targeted sanctions against individuals and entities, without reverting to broad sector-wide restrictions.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Conditional Suspension<\/b><\/p>\n

In this context, Tareq Hamo, a researcher at the <\/span>Kurdish Centre for Studies<\/span><\/a>, argues in comments to <\/span>+963<\/b> that describing the move as a \u201clifting of sanctions\u201d is misleading. In his view, the decision is closer to a temporary, conditional suspension, reflecting persistent US scepticism about the transitional authority\u2019s ability to decisively break with past practices.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hamo notes that Congress deliberately preserved pressure tools through a strict evaluation mechanism, preventing the repeal from turning into an open-ended mandate. He goes further, suggesting that the real challenge lies less in external commitments than in internal performance. So far, he argues, the authorities have failed to offer convincing progress on justice and accountability. Investigations into recent violations have yielded no tangible outcomes, and no influential figures \u2013 whether perpetrators or decision-makers \u2013 have been brought before the courts.<\/span><\/p>\n

He warns that continuing a strategy of delay rather than confrontation with these issues risks eroding international trust and reopening the door to renewed pressure in more complex forms.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: Ahmad Saadoun on Syria After Caesar: Recovery Opportunity or Reform Test?<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Wider Window<\/b><\/h2>\n

From a different perspective, Wael Alwan, a researcher at the <\/span>Jusoor for Studies<\/span><\/a>, views the decision as opening the widest economic and political window Syria has seen in years. Ending sectoral sanctions, he argues, could finally allow the country to move beyond economic paralysis after prolonged isolation and investment stagnation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alwan stresses that abandoning the automatic snap-back of sanctions was critical, as the constant threat of reinstatement would have deterred investors. Limiting future measures to individuals rather than economic sectors creates a more predictable environment, giving local and foreign private actors greater room to manoeuvre.<\/span><\/p>\n

He also suggests that US oversight, despite its political nature, could play a constructive role in pushing authorities toward better governance, particularly in areas such as social reconciliation, arms control, and the rule of law.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, according to Darwish Khalifa, this path remains fraught with complications. Speaking to <\/span>+963<\/b>, Khalifa argues that the post-Caesar mechanisms were designed as a flexible pressure tool, adjustable to political and security developments, while preserving Washington\u2019s core objective of supporting a managed political transition without compromising US and regional interests.<\/span><\/p>\n

He adds that the framework will remain under review, especially after December 2025, as the transitional period outlined in Syria\u2019s constitutional declaration nears its end.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Absence of National Consensus<\/b><\/h2>\n

Domestically, Khalifa points to the lack of national consensus as the most serious unresolved challenge. Social division remains deep, particularly where security crises intersect with sectarian tensions. While symbolic gestures \u2013 such as President Ahmad Al-Sharaa\u2019s meeting with Alawite community figures \u2013 signal political intent, Khalifa argues they remain insufficient without concrete solutions to unresolved files, foremost among them Suwayda, which remains outside any comprehensive settlement.<\/span><\/p>\n

He also emphasizes that Syria\u2019s reintegration into the US and Western political sphere requires addressing the status of armed factions incorporated into the new Syrian army. Establishing a shared understanding within these structures that the United States is not an adversary of a \u201cnew Syria\u201d is, in his view, essential for stabilizing the transition and sustaining international support.<\/span><\/p>\n

For his part, Baraa Othman offers a broader structural reading of the transformation of the Caesar framework. He argues that the international community has grown more aware of the limitations of comprehensive sanctions, which have proven effective at impoverishing societies without altering regime behaviour. The shift toward time-bound, conditional oversight, he says, enables a more realistic test of the new authorities without suffocating early recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n

Othman stresses that success depends on the authorities\u2019 ability to move beyond managing fragile balances toward building neutral, effective state institutions \u2013 institutions that guarantee judicial independence, equal rights, swift dispute resolution, and an end to impunity. Citizenship, he argues, is not a political slogan but a daily practice measured by people\u2019s sense of protection and fairness before the law.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the heavy legacy of authoritarianism and war, Othman believes the transitional phase presents a historic opportunity to reshape Syria\u2019s social contract on the basis of rights and obligations rather than loyalties and identities. In this sense, Caesar\u2019s new incarnation shifts from a unilateral pressure instrument to a framework of conditional political engagement, placing Syria within a dynamic of mutual influence with the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, Syria stands at a decisive crossroads. Repealing the Caesar Act does not end the crisis; it inaugurates a more complex phase in which the legitimacy of authority will be measured by its ability to deliver internal security, entrench citizenship, build institutions capable of managing diversity, stimulate reconstruction, and open space for the private sector. The outcome will determine whether Syria moves toward sustainable statehood \u2013 or slips back into a cycle of conditions and sanctions, enforced through sharper and more precise tools.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The repeal of the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act was not an isolated decision, nor does it signal a definitive shift in US policy toward Syria. Rather, it reflects a phase of policy recalibration, reshaping tools of engagement with a country emerging from years of conflict, institutional collapse, and economic devastation. Laden with political symbolism […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":40785,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"0","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"left-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"g:i a d\/m\/Y","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"5","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"After Caesar: Syria\u2019s Statehood Test Between Conditional Opportunity and Renewed Pressure"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[430,19],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[395],"class_list":["post-40784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-insights","category-slider"],"yoast_head":"\nPost-Caesar Syria: Statehood on Trial - 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