{"id":40781,"date":"2025-12-23T21:02:49","date_gmt":"2025-12-23T21:02:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/?p=40781"},"modified":"2025-12-23T21:02:49","modified_gmt":"2025-12-23T21:02:49","slug":"south-lebanon-between-arms-control-and-israeli-security-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/23\/12\/2025\/south-lebanon-between-arms-control-and-israeli-security-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"South Lebanon Between Arms Control and Israeli Security Scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"

Amid escalating Israeli rhetoric about new security arrangements along Lebanon\u2019s southern border, political, military, and legal tracks are converging on a single question: the future of the area south of the Litani River. The debate centres on whether Lebanon is moving toward consolidating a calm based on international resolutions, or whether new on-the-ground realities may be imposed under security and economic pretexts. As Lebanese officials point to progress in efforts to confine weapons to state authority, warnings of potential escalation continue to shape assessments across security, political, and legal spheres.<\/span><\/p>\n

Security Reality South of the Litani and the Question of \u201cVacuum\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n

Addressing the security landscape, retired Brigadier General Naji Malaeb, a security affairs researcher, told <\/span>+963<\/b> that \u201cthe Lebanese Army is defensive by nature and was never historically built as an offensive force. Its capabilities are designed to defend territory, and there is a clear political decision from the presidency to confront any Israeli incursion regardless of available means.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that \u201ctalk of a security vacuum is not linked to the deployment of the Lebanese Army. The army has never been the cause of such a vacuum. Rather, the vacuum resulted from the decline in Hezbollah\u2019s capabilities, particularly after the announcement of the discovery of dozens of tunnels and the seizure of large quantities of weapons and ammunition. This has effectively altered the balance of field control.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In the same context, Hussein Al-Deek, professor of international relations and an expert on Israeli affairs, said in remarks to <\/span>+963<\/b> that \u201cIsrael\u2019s northern front remains open, especially with Israeli settlers still unable to return to their homes, particularly in Kiryat Shmona.\u201d He argued that this reality keeps escalation scenarios on the table, noting that \u201cIsraeli public opinion has been prepared for a potential military confrontation with Lebanon and Iran.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

From a legal perspective, Dr. Mohammad Hossam Hafez, an academic, lawyer, and former diplomat, stressed that \u201cUN Security Council resolutions clearly stipulate respect for Lebanon\u2019s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and limit security arrangements south of the Litani River to the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He told <\/span>+963<\/b> that \u201cany security, administrative, or military presence outside this framework constitutes a direct violation of international resolutions.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Israeli Arrangements and the Prospect of a Buffer Zone<\/b><\/h2>\n

Regarding Israeli proposals related to security zones, Malaeb said that \u201cthe region is entering a phase of implementing an Israeli military strategy based on defence beyond its borders since 2006, supported by the US national security strategy, which places Israel\u2019s security at the top of its priorities.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that \u201cthis approach is reflected in the establishment of security zones, as seen in Syria, eastern Gaza, and the West Bank, and it could extend to southern Lebanon.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Malaeb warned that \u201cproposals involving forces not affiliated with the United Nations operating in southern Lebanon, coordinating with the Lebanese Army and under external leadership with Israeli approval, represent a dangerous development.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

For his part, Al-Deek said that \u201cNetanyahu may present Trump with a proposal to resume military operations in southern Lebanon, including large-scale strikes that could result in civilian casualties.\u201d He noted that such operations could \u201caim to establish a wide security belt in southern Lebanon, functioning as a closed military zone separating Lebanon from Israel.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that \u201cIsrael may seek to impose a long-term security model in southern Lebanon similar to what is happening in Gaza,\u201d pointing out that \u201cIsrael currently controls between 54 and 60 percent of the Gaza Strip.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast, Hafez emphasised that \u201cany proposal to establish a buffer zone or a special economic zone in southern Lebanon is entirely inconsistent with UN Security Council resolutions, particularly Resolution 1701, and constitutes a blatant violation of Lebanese sovereignty.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that \u201cthe Security Council has never granted Israel the authority to impose security, military, or administrative realities inside Lebanese territory,\u201d stressing that \u201cany buffer zone, security enclave, or economic protectorate, regardless of how it is labelled, is a coercive measure imposed by an occupying power.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The US Role and the Possibility of a \u201cGreen Light\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n

On the American dimension, Malaeb said that \u201cstatements by the US envoy acknowledging Israel\u2019s inability to eliminate Hezbollah\u2019s weapons effectively constitute a green light for Lebanese authorities to continue their plan without clashing with the group.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He explained that \u201cthe Lebanese government is not moving toward disarmament by force, but rather pursuing a gradual strategy of weapons containment, ultimately leading to state control.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

By contrast, Al-Deek argued that \u201cthe anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could involve a broad regional trade-off, based on de-escalation in Gaza and Syria in exchange for escalation or military action in Lebanon and Iran.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that \u201cTrump is expected to present major demands during the meeting,\u201d which could be met by \u201cgranting Netanyahu a green light to act militarily on the Lebanese and Iranian fronts.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Al-Deek stressed that \u201cUS policy in the region primarily prioritises Israeli and American interests,\u201d noting that \u201cLebanon does not constitute a central priority in US strategic calculations.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Hafez, however, underscored that \u201cany American green light for Israeli military action has no legal value under international law.\u201d He explained that \u201cthe unilateral will of any state, including the United States, cannot replace the rules of international law,\u201d and that \u201cthe concept of pre-emptive strikes is legally rejected.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Civilians, Sovereignty, and Legal Consequences<\/b><\/h2>\n

Regarding the impact of potential security arrangements on civilians, Malaeb said that \u201cHezbollah\u2019s primary demand is a simultaneous Israeli withdrawal in exchange for gradual steps on the weapons file,\u201d highlighting the sensitivity of any measures affecting the southern field reality.<\/span><\/p>\n

He also noted that \u201cthe postponement of the donor conference for the Lebanese Army from early January to February reflects donor states\u2019 anticipation of tangible outcomes, particularly concerning the army\u2019s role in weapons control.\u201d He stressed that \u201cLebanon faces clear commitments that must be implemented in the coming phase.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Al-Deek, meanwhile, said that \u201cstatements by Hezbollah\u2019s leadership, especially its rejection of handing over or relinquishing weapons, could accelerate an Israeli military operation after the holiday period.\u201d He argued that \u201cregional, international, and domestic conditions are increasingly conducive to a potential Israeli\u2013Hezbollah confrontation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Hafez concluded by stressing that \u201cthere is no legal basis under international law allowing Israel to prevent civilians from returning to their areas or to restrict their movement.\u201d He explained that \u201cthe Green Line does not constitute an internationally recognised border, but rather a unilateral measure linked solely to Israeli will.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He concluded by affirming that \u201cpreventing civilians from returning or imposing broad movement restrictions constitutes a grave violation of international law, international human rights law, and international humanitarian law,\u201d noting that such practices \u201cmay amount to collective punishment or forced displacement, both prohibited under the Geneva Conventions.,\u201d adding that \u201cany Israeli military escalation against Lebanon would fall outside the framework of international law.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amid escalating Israeli rhetoric about new security arrangements along Lebanon\u2019s southern border, political, military, and legal tracks are converging on a single question: the future of the area south of the Litani River. The debate centres on whether Lebanon is moving toward consolidating a calm based on international resolutions, or whether new on-the-ground realities may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":108,"featured_media":40782,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"0","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"left-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"g:i a d\/m\/Y","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"5","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"Political, military, and legal tensions converge as Israel signals new security arrangements south of the Litani River"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[430,19],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[394],"class_list":["post-40781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-insights","category-slider"],"yoast_head":"\nSouth Lebanon Between Arms Control and Israeli Security Scenarios - 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