{"id":40128,"date":"2025-10-27T17:11:25","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T17:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/?p=40128"},"modified":"2025-10-27T17:11:25","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T17:11:25","slug":"is-isis-making-a-comeback-in-syria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/27\/10\/2025\/is-isis-making-a-comeback-in-syria\/","title":{"rendered":"Is ISIS Making a Comeback in Syria?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Several indicators have emerged across Syria this year, pointing to a renewed surge in activity by the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), which remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States, the European Union, and numerous Arab and Asian countries. The group appears to be capitalising on the growing security and political vacuum caused by the gradual withdrawal of US forces and the declining international focus on counter-terrorism efforts.<\/span><\/p>\n

This raises an urgent question: are we witnessing the early stages of ISIS\u2019s return to prominence, or merely the aftershocks of a post-war phase?<\/span><\/p>\n

According to The Wall Street Journal, ISIS has carried out more than 117 attacks since the start of 2025 in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and the Syrian Desert \u2013 up from 73 attacks in 2024. The report identifies Deir ez-Zor as the organisation\u2019s primary base of operations, where roughly 3,000 fighters are now concentrated.<\/span><\/p>\n

The newspaper noted that the United States began scaling back its military presence in Syria in April, withdrawing around 500 of its 2,000 troops, mainly from bases in Deir ez-Zor, and transferring some facilities to areas under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).<\/span><\/p>\n

Goran Tal Tamer, an SDF commander, told reporters that the drawdown \u201chas inspired the organisation to revive its former activity. Civilians in north-east Syria are suffering from worsening insecurity and chaos, which creates fertile ground for the group\u2019s return.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: Syria\u2019s Muslim Brotherhood: A Failed Project<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fragility and Vacuum<\/b><\/h2>\n

Syrian political analyst Darwish Khalifa told <\/span>+963<\/b> that the current climate of instability makes Syrian society more vulnerable to infiltration. This fragility \u2013 compounded by security and political turmoil, social fractures, and rapid economic decline \u2013 has allowed ISIS to reactivate its networks and increase its attacks by about 60 per cent compared with last year. Khalifa described the uptick as \u201cnotable\u201d, given that the group lost its last stronghold in north-east Syria six years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Khalifa does not view the escalation as part of a long-term strategy to destabilise the region. Rather, he sees it as a wave of retaliatory strikes against former rivals, carried out through hit-and-run tactics that enable fighters to strike swiftly and withdraw before facing retaliation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jordanian researcher Hassan Abu Hanieh, an expert on extremist movements, told <\/span>+963<\/b> that discussions about ISIS\u2019s potential comeback remain highly relevant. \u201cAll international intelligence assessments \u2013 whether from the UN or specialised research centres \u2013 warn that the risk of resurgence remains. The possibility of ISIS returning is always on the table,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that the region has entered a new geopolitical phase since the fall of Assad, with shifting regional dynamics following the events of 7 October. \u201cCounterterrorism no longer ranks as a top global priority. Unlike the post-9\/11 era, today\u2019s world powers \u2013 the US, Russia and China \u2013 are focused on great-power rivalries. This has weakened counter-insurgency strategies and opened space for groups like ISIS to reorganise.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Warnings of a Return<\/b><\/h2>\n

Could ISIS regain its former strength? Khalifa believes that ongoing tensions could indeed pave the way for a gradual, more structured resurgence of terrorist activity, particularly in the absence of genuine political progress or lasting stability. \u201cExtremist organisations thrive in fragile environments,\u201d he said. \u201cThey recruit from the angry and marginalised, using instability as fertile soil for expansion. This demands a serious international response that combines pre-emptive security measures with social and economic de-radicalisation efforts.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He cautioned, however, that any military or security action must be anchored in a clear political framework that recognises Syria\u2019s complex reality and prevents the country from sliding into renewed cycles of violence.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abu Hanieh pointed to past precedents: \u201cDuring the US occupation of Iraq, it was thought that ISIS had been wiped out after 2009\u20132010. But the group made a ferocious comeback in 2011, stronger than before. The same pattern could repeat itself \u2013 possibly even more powerfully than in 2013\u20132014, when ISIS controlled vast areas of Iraq and Syria.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The danger, he warned, persists. \u201cISIS remains highly adaptive, capable of shifting strategies and exploiting geopolitical rifts. Since losing its final pocket in Baghouz in 2019, it has evolved into a decentralised network of small, mobile cells operating across multiple regions. Estimates of its strength vary between 3,000 and 10,000 fighters \u2013 but its resilience and ability to recruit are far more concerning than its numbers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The International Void<\/b><\/h2>\n

Abu Hanieh explained that a combination of international shifts, regional sanctions, the absence of reconstruction, continued tensions with Israel, and political unrest in Iraq all create favourable conditions for ISIS to return. \u201cWeak regional coordination and US hesitation between staying and leaving keep the door open for the group,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He noted that declining Iranian influence and rising Turkish\u2013Israeli competition have produced a state of geopolitical uncertainty, allowing ISIS to rebuild its networks across Syria, Iraq, and other security voids. \u201cThis is not a hypothetical scenario,\u201d he warned. \u201cIt is a realistic and increasingly likely outcome unless comprehensive strategies are implemented to address the root causes of extremism and violence.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: Deir Ezzor Residents: \u201cWe Just Want Safety and Peace\u201d<\/a>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Is the US Really Leaving?<\/b><\/h2>\n

Even with these underlying factors, one key question remains: is the United States truly leaving Syria \u2013 and could that withdrawal, if it happens, be the trigger for ISIS\u2019s return?<\/span><\/p>\n

Wael Alwan, a researcher at the <\/span>Jusoor for Studies<\/span><\/a>, doubts it. Speaking to <\/span>+963<\/b>, he said: \u201cAlthough US troop numbers have decreased in recent years, Washington\u2019s operations in Syria do not require a large presence.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He added that internal assessments submitted to the US administration indicate that maintaining forces in Syria is relatively low-cost in both logistical and security terms. \u201cThe American presence \u2013 through bases and direct involvement \u2013 continues to yield significant political and security benefits for Washington despite the limited troop numbers,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Alwan expects the United States to focus instead on withdrawing from Iraq, alongside efforts to dismantle the Popular Mobilisation Forces there. \u201cThat scenario could create a larger opening for ISIS in Iraq rather than Syria,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

He concluded that while ISIS may attempt to revive its networks in Syria, recent internal and external arrangements \u2013 particularly those bringing the Syrian government into cooperation with the international coalition \u2013 will likely strengthen efforts to suppress any resurgence. \u201cCoordination between the SDF and the transitional Syrian government, mediated by the United States, will further restrict the group\u2019s movement,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe local actors alone cannot contain ISIS,\u201d Alwan warned. \u201cOnly a joint US-backed approach \u2013 linking government forces with the SDF \u2013 can effectively curb the organisation\u2019s ability to rebuild.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Several indicators have emerged across Syria this year, pointing to a renewed surge in activity by the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), which remains designated as a terrorist organisation by the United States, the European Union, and numerous Arab and Asian countries. The group appears to be capitalising on the growing security and political vacuum caused […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":40129,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"0","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"left-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"g:i a d\/m\/Y","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"5","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"Troubling Signs in Syria\u2019s 2025 Landscape: Could ISIS Re-emerge in Syria?"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[430,19],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[395],"class_list":["post-40128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-insights","category-slider"],"yoast_head":"\nIs ISIS Making a Comeback in Syria? 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