{"id":39387,"date":"2025-08-25T20:26:58","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T20:26:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/?p=39387"},"modified":"2025-08-25T20:26:58","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T20:26:58","slug":"from-kyiv-to-damascus-how-the-ukraine-war-shapes-syrias-fate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/25\/08\/2025\/from-kyiv-to-damascus-how-the-ukraine-war-shapes-syrias-fate\/","title":{"rendered":"From Kyiv to Damascus: How the Ukraine War Shapes Syria\u2019s Fate"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the war in Ukraine continues, U.S. President Donald Trump has relayed to his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders a Russian proposal for ending the conflict. The plan, reportedly conveyed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, involves Ukraine surrendering Donbas, Crimea, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Zelensky has fully rejected it, according to diplomatic sources.<\/span><\/p>\n

A summit between Trump and Putin was held in Alaska under the banner of “Pursuing Peace.” Afterward, Trump stressed that Ukraine must reach a deal with Russia, citing the imbalance of power between the two countries. He revealed that both sides agreed to pursue a settlement without the precondition of a ceasefire.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to media reports, Putin demanded that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions, restrict the alliance\u2019s eastern expansion, and that Washington formally recognize Russia\u2019s annexation of the four disputed regions and Crimea. Some reports suggested Putin was more flexible on Sumy and Kharkiv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Trump reportedly told European leaders he was willing to offer Ukraine security guarantees, including military and financial backing, but no U.S. boots on the ground, activated only if Russia launched a future offensive. These guarantees, however, would not include NATO membership.<\/span><\/p>\n

During Trump\u2019s meeting with Zelensky in Washington, discussions touched on \u201csecurity guarantees for Ukraine\u201d and \u201cterritorial swaps.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

European leaders and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte also met with Trump before the summit. They warned against underestimating Putin, rejected territorial concessions, and stressed that a ceasefire should precede any deal, coupled with solid security guarantees for Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

European capitals fear that any settlement ignoring their strategic interests could undermine the continent\u2019s security and reshape regional power balances. This raised a broader question: <\/span>what does this mean for Syria\u2019s future?<\/b><\/p>\n

Read also: Russia\u2019s Role in Syria: Symbolic Support, Strategic Coordination with Israel<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Prolonged War and Stalled Peace Efforts<\/b><\/h2>\n

Dr. Saeed Sallam, Director of the Vision Centre for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, told <\/span>+963<\/b> that Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine, which began in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale invasion on February 22, 2022, continues with no clear end in sight.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cRussian forces currently hold the battlefield initiative but are advancing slowly,\u201d he explained, noting they captured just 25 square kilometres last week. \u201cAltogether, Russia gained roughly 1% of Ukraine\u2019s territory in 2025, at enormous cost in equipment and manpower.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, Ukraine wages an asymmetric war, striking deep inside Russia and targeting its logistics and economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite U.S.-led diplomatic efforts under Trump, Sallam says little progress has been made: \u201cMoscow refuses to compromise on its central demands, recognition of the annexed territories, while blaming Kyiv for rejecting a permanent peace.\u201d Ukraine insists on full withdrawal and restoration of sovereignty as a non-negotiable condition.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe Kremlin won\u2019t even agree to a Putin-Zelensky meeting without prior concessions,\u201d Sallam added. \u201cThe obstacles are massive, and escalation remains the default.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The Syrian Dimension<\/b><\/h2>\n

Sallam argues the Ukraine war has weakened Moscow\u2019s hand in Syria, \u201cThe Russian invasion triggered unprecedented Western sanctions and isolation. The military and economic drain on Russia undermined its ability to sustain its Syrian presence, directly contributing to the fall of Bashar al-Assad\u2019s regime in 2024.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

With Moscow\u2019s influence diminished, Washington seized the opportunity to strengthen regional alliances and counter Iran, whose own Syrian foothold had long depended on Russian backing.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe U.S. doubled down on supporting anti-Assad forces, which led to shifting the balance in Syria,\u201d Sallam noted.<\/span><\/p>\n

Although Trump has since sought quick diplomatic \u201cdeals\u201d with Putin to stabilize the Middle East, Sallam says deep mistrust over Ukraine keeps these efforts limited.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOverall, the Ukraine war and Assad\u2019s fall reshaped Syria\u2019s geopolitical map,\u201d he explained. \u201cThe U.S. gained ground, while Russia struggles to reclaim lost influence.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Also read: In Southern Syria: Russia\u2019s Return Isn\u2019t Enough; Warlords Must Be Stopped First<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s Fate and Syria\u2019s Future<\/b><\/h2>\n

Salam believes that ending the Russian war on Ukraine would significantly impact the Syrian file, given the interconnectedness of the regional and international conflicts in which Russia is involved. If the war were to end, Russia could reallocate the military and economic resources drained in Ukraine, potentially enabling it to attempt to regain influence in Syria.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This could also mean strengthening its alliance with Iran, still a key regional actor despite its diminished role in Syria or even rebuilding ties with various Syrian \u201cfactions\u201d to reestablish a foothold. Such a move, however, could trigger new tensions with the United States, which has expanded its presence in Syria by supporting forces opposed to both Iran and Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOn the other hand, if the war continues, Russia will face tremendous difficulties in maintaining any effective role in Syria, leaving the field open for the United States and Turkey to expand their influence. Turkey, with U.S. backing, could work to strengthen its control over northern Syria, while Washington would seek to curb Iranian influence. Thus, whether the Russian war in Ukraine ends or drags on will directly shape the balance of power in Syria, with varying consequences for all regional and international actors involved.\u201d Salam adds.<\/span><\/p>\n

The View from Moscow<\/b><\/h2>\n

Dr. Mahmoud Al-Afandi, an academic and political analyst based in Moscow, views the Russia- Ukrainian war in the same context as a war of attrition between Russian power and Western power; one that will only end through a military solution.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

He argues that the political initiatives Trump is attempting to impose to end the conflict will not succeed. However, he points out that Russia has already achieved one of its main objectives: the withdrawal of the United States from direct involvement in the conflict, which dispelled fears of a potential Third World War.<\/span><\/p>\n

Speaking to <\/span>+963<\/b>, Al-Afandi stresses that only a military solution can bring the war to an end, particularly as Ukraine itself is suffering from attrition. He predicts the war will conclude within the coming months with Ukraine\u2019s surrender. In his view, the conflict \u201cwill not be settled in political corridors, only the battlefield can stop it,\u201d especially given what he describes as a \u201cEuropean and Ukrainian elite that pursues militarization rather than politics.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

In contrast to the earlier analysis, Al-Afandi believes the Russian- Ukrainian war will not negatively impact relations between Moscow and Washington, given the U.S. withdrawal from the conflict. He notes that the Trump administration\u2019s statements align closely with the Russian perspective. He even goes further, suggesting that the war \u201cbrings Russia and the United States closer together.\u201d He highlights the Alaska summit between the two presidents as \u201ca meeting to reach understandings and deals, part of which involved Middle Eastern issues, particularly Syria.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

He adds that the Russian- Ukrainian war \u201cwill not affect the Syrian file,\u201d explaining that the Russian forces stationed in Syria \u201coperate outside the framework of the military campaign against Ukraine.\u201d He notes that Moscow has recognized Syria\u2019s new authorities and has begun working to develop relations with them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Al-Afandi points out that Russia is building ties with the new Syrian government and will not alter its political stance toward Damascus. At the same time, he stresses that the new rulers face \u201ca major challenge in state-building.\u201d He concludes that the issue \u201cdepends on Damascus, not Moscow, when it comes to relations between the two countries, which are tied, in one way or another, to the existence and construction of a state that still lacks clear contours.\u201d He closes by saying: \u201cRussia will build relations with this government, or any other, that serve its interests.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the war in Ukraine continues, U.S. President Donald Trump has relayed to his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders a Russian proposal for ending the conflict. The plan, reportedly conveyed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, involves Ukraine surrendering Donbas, Crimea, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Zelensky has fully rejected it, according to diplomatic sources. A […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":107,"featured_media":39388,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"0","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"left-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"g:i a d\/m\/Y","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"5","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"Ukraine and Syria: intertwined conflicts and shifting power balances"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[382,19],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[390],"class_list":["post-39387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions","category-slider"],"yoast_head":"\nFrom Kyiv to Damascus: How the Ukraine War Shapes Syria\u2019s Fate - 963+<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Peace in Ukraine could reshape Syria\u2019s balance of power. 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