{"id":39267,"date":"2025-08-17T09:52:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-17T09:52:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/?p=39267"},"modified":"2025-08-17T09:52:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-17T09:52:02","slug":"israel-iran-war-scenarios-middle-east-in-the-crossfire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/17\/08\/2025\/israel-iran-war-scenarios-middle-east-in-the-crossfire\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel\u2013Iran War Scenarios: Middle East in the Crossfire"},"content":{"rendered":"

Iran\u2019s spheres of influence, from Baghdad to Beirut, are showing unusual movement. For Tehran, Lebanon has always been a strategic tool; its frontline in the confrontation with Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, the recent war between Israel and Iran shifted the dynamic, creating a direct battlefield between the two, in conditions that many observers believe were far from ideal for Tehran.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the past days, Lebanon\u2019s government decided that all weapons must be under the authority of the state. Hezbollah would be required to hand over its arsenal under a phased plan overseen by the Lebanese army. However, the party rejected the decision outright, showing clear discontent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soon after, Iran\u2019s foreign minister criticized Beirut\u2019s move, while Ali Larijani set out on a regional tour that included Baghdad, meeting the Popular Mobilization Forces, and Beirut, meeting Hezbollah. The purpose of the trip remains unclear, but it reflects Tehran\u2019s effort to signal strength. Strategic analysts believe the timing points to Israel preparing for another strike against Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, Iran is reordering its internal house. After the war, it established a new National Defense Council led by Larijani, consolidating 13 security and intelligence bodies into just three. The goal: centralize control and tighten military and security coordination.<\/span><\/p>\n

On the other side, Israel has launched major military exercises simulating attacks by Iran and Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz went further, threatening what he called a new \u201cwedding of blood\u201d in Tehran and even naming Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as a potential target.<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran responded quickly. Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi declared Iran\u2019s armed forces on full alert and promised a harsher, more decisive response to any new attack, accusing the U.S. and Israel of routinely breaking their word.<\/span><\/p>\n

War on the horizon?<\/b><\/h2>\n

Researcher Ammar Tasaei believes war is close. Speaking to <\/span>+963<\/b>, he said that Netanyahu\u2019s recent message to the Iranian people, urging them to revolt against their government, was not casual talk, but part of a bigger plan.<\/span><\/p>\n

He recalled that Netanyahu made a similar statement just before the last 12-day war and argued that Israel now sees a rare opportunity: Donald Trump back in the White House, Republicans rallying behind Israel, and Iran struggling under economic and social strain.<\/span><\/p>\n

He also pointed to Europe\u2019s potential activation of the \u201csnapback\u201d sanctions mechanism, which could further shake Iran\u2019s economy, alongside Israel\u2019s recent large-scale drills as preparation for either an Iranian attack or its allies in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another strike likely<\/b><\/h2>\n

Major General Dr. Sayed Ghoneim, a NATO fellow and visiting professor in Brussels, told <\/span>+963<\/b> he also expects Israel to strike Iran again soon, and that Tehran is preparing for it.<\/span><\/p>\n

He said Israel is aiming not just at Hezbollah and Gaza, but also at Iran\u2019s allies in Iraq, as part of a bigger strategy to dismantle Tehran\u2019s network. He highlighted Iran\u2019s creation of the new defence council and consolidation of its security services as a sign that it is bracing for a large-scale confrontation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lebanon at the Crossfire<\/b><\/h2>\n

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, meeting Larijani in Beirut, sent a firm message: Iran\u2019s criticism of Lebanon\u2019s sovereign decisions was unacceptable. He insisted that all arms must remain under state control, stressing that Lebanon\u2019s ties with Tehran should pass only through official institutions; not Hezbollah.<\/span><\/p>\n

Still, Hezbollah\u2019s rejection of the weapons decision leaves Lebanon exposed. Military analyst Brigadier General Marcel Baloukji told <\/span>+963 <\/b>that the unresolved issue keeps Lebanon vulnerable to Israeli strikes, even if no full-scale war breaks out. He warned this would erode Western and Arab support, leaving the weapons file hanging unresolved, just like the Palestinian issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

He concluded that Lebanon risks becoming a bigger arena for Iran\u2019s proxy wars, waiting for U.S.\u2013Iranian understandings that may never come.<\/span><\/p>\n

Scenarios ahead<\/b><\/h2>\n

These developments point to several possible scenarios that could soon become reality.<\/span><\/p>\n

First scenario:<\/b> Israel may be anticipating an Iranian move on the ground, especially considering Tehran\u2019s recent military drills where it tested missile capabilities after addressing some of its weaknesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second scenario:<\/b> What we\u2019re seeing might instead be an Israeli ploy, a deliberate deception designed to pave the way for strikes against Iran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Third scenario:<\/b> The manoeuvres could simply be routine precautionary measures, with no imminent escalation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fourth scenario:<\/b> Israel could decide to launch a wide-scale offensive aimed at eliminating what remains of Iran\u2019s network of proxies in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Iran\u2019s spheres of influence, from Baghdad to Beirut, are showing unusual movement. For Tehran, Lebanon has always been a strategic tool; its frontline in the confrontation with Israel. However, the recent war between Israel and Iran shifted the dynamic, creating a direct battlefield between the two, in conditions that many observers believe were far from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":39268,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"0","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"left-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"g:i a d\/m\/Y","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"5","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"Lebanon between the decision to restrict weapons and Tel Aviv\u2019s escalation: Is the region edging closer to an Iran\u2013Israel confrontation?"},"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_override_counter":{"view_counter_number":"0","share_counter_number":"0","like_counter_number":"0","dislike_counter_number":"0"},"jnews_post_split":{"post_split":[{"template":"1","tag":"h2","numbering":"asc","mode":"normal","first":"0","enable_toc":"0","toc_type":"normal"}]},"footnotes":""},"categories":[382,19],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[395],"class_list":["post-39267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinions","category-slider"],"yoast_head":"\nIsrael\u2013Iran War Scenarios: Middle East in the Crossfire - 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