{"id":37605,"date":"2025-04-18T12:01:44","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T12:01:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/?p=37605"},"modified":"2025-04-18T12:01:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T12:01:44","slug":"nagel-committee-turkey-now-a-greater-threat-than-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/963media.com\/en\/18\/04\/2025\/nagel-committee-turkey-now-a-greater-threat-than-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Nagel Committee: Turkey Now a Greater Threat Than Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Ghandi Al-Muhtar<\/i><\/strong><\/p>\n

Israeli Turkish relations are witnessing a renewed escalation, as Syria turns into a regional battleground between the two powers. A report from the Israeli “Nagel Committee,” alongside recent military developments, underscores Israel\u2019s mounting anxiety over Turkey\u2019s growing foothold in Syria, especially in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which had served for over four decades as a de facto guarantor of Israeli border security. The timing of Israel’s leak of recorded conversations between Assad and the Israeli intelligence handler known as \u201cMusa\u201d raised eyebrows.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey as an Adversary<\/b><\/h2>\n

The Israeli “Nagel Committee” now identifies Turkey as the primary threat. According to its findings, Ankara is actively pursuing a neo-Ottoman agenda in the Middle East, with Syria as a key area of strategic interest.<\/span><\/p>\n

The committee warns that Turkish forces or their proxies in Syria could soon pose a direct threat to Israel if they evolve into instruments of Ankara’s regional ambitions. Following Assad\u2019s ousting, Turkey supported the establishment of an interim government led by Ahmad Al-Sharaa. However, Israel perceives this government as a security risk due to its links with radical Islamist factions, including groups with jihadist roots.<\/span><\/p>\n

Channel 12\u2019s reporter Sabrina Levy commented that Israel \u201chas taken a further step in its deteriorating relationship with Ankara, following the release of Yaakov Nagel\u2019s report. The focus is now squarely on the Turkish threat, which is seen as even more dangerous than Iran, especially since Syria is on the verge of becoming Turkey\u2019s proxy on Israel\u2019s border, as part of Ankara\u2019s revived imperial vision. There\u2019s now a growing fear that this proximity could spark a devastating conflict between the two countries.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: In Southern Syria: Israeli Incursions, Security Vacuum, and a Government Missing in Action<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

At Our Doorstep<\/b><\/h2>\n

In a televised statement, Israeli Turkish affairs expert Guy Cohen declared, \u201cTurkey is a hostile state by all metrics. Its threat is right at our doorstep. Israel and Turkey are now de facto neighbours, and soon, we may well see Turkish soldiers on the streets of Damascus. After what happened on October 7, we cannot afford to dismiss any potential threat.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Israeli intelligence reports have persistently sounded the alarm over Turkey\u2019s efforts to bolster its military presence at bases such as Hama Airport and the T-4 airbase. These concerns have prompted Israeli airstrikes targeting Turkish and Syrian military facilities as a stern warning to Ankara, focusing particularly on fuel depots, radar stations, and missile platforms. The objective is to prevent Turkey from deploying air defence systems or strengthening its military footprint in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israeli officials stressed that these strikes send a direct message: \u201cAny attempt by Turkey to expand its military presence in Syria will be met with firm military retaliation,\u201d particularly amid reports of ongoing negotiations between the interim Syrian government and Ankara regarding potential defence agreements.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: Israel\u2019s Strikes in Syria: Is Turkey Shielding or Provoking Conflict?\u00a0<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

What Does Israel Want from Al-Sharaa?<\/b><\/h2>\n

In a recent interview, Tamir Hayman, head of Israel\u2019s Institute for National Security Studies, described Al-Sharaa as \u201ca highly problematic Islamist figure surrounded by dangerous individuals, many of them former jihadist fighters who have been targets of our forces. Most Israeli analysts don\u2019t trust Al-Sharaa; they believe he\u2019s a wolf in sheep\u2019s clothing who ultimately seeks to establish an Islamic jihadist state.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, Israeli media suggests Tel Aviv may be exploring limited engagement with Al-Sharaa to achieve specific strategic goals: curbing Turkish expansion in southern Syria, cooperating against jihadist factions that threaten Israeli national security, and weakening both Iranian and Turkish influence. Israeli policymakers believe that conditional support for Al-Sharaa could create leverage to expand Israel\u2019s indirect influence in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nagel Committee\u2019s Analysis of the Turkey-Syria Threat<\/b><\/h2>\n

The committee\u2019s report uncovered secret negotiations between Damascus and Ankara to hand over strategic zones near Palmyra to the Turkish military, in exchange for financial and military backing of Syria\u2019s new regime. This move could grant Turkey control over key land corridors between Iraq and Syria and facilitate the deployment of advanced air defence systems like the Russian-made S-400.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: Israel-Turkey Rivalry in Syria: Is a Confrontation Imminent?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The report also noted that the new Syrian regime has begun rebuilding its southern military infrastructure, with direct Turkish support, near the occupied Golan Heights. Key developments include the reconstruction of Palmyra\u2019s military airbase, which had suffered repeated Israeli strikes, and the deployment of medium-range J-600T ground-to-ground missile batteries.<\/span><\/p>\n

Compared to the Iranian Threat<\/b><\/h2>\n

Despite Iran being traditionally considered Israel\u2019s primary adversary, the Nagel Committee report points out that the Turkish threat is distinguished by three defining characteristics.<\/span><\/p>\n

First, regional legitimacy: Turkey is a NATO member and maintains a far-reaching diplomatic network, broader than that of Tehran.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Second, military capabilities: The Turkish military is ranked second in NATO after the United States, with 500,000 active-duty troops and 320,000 reservists.<\/span>
\n<\/span>Third, social base: The cultural ties between Turks and Syrians may facilitate broader acceptance of Turkey\u2019s presence in Syria as a form of \u201csoft colonial power.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The report calls for strengthening Israeli deterrence through launching intensified airstrikes on Turkish Syrian targets and expanding the buffer zone in southern Syria into a fully demilitarized area under international supervision.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel \u201cwill not hesitate to confront Turkish expansion,\u201d viewing Ankara\u2019s alliance with Damascus as a violation of the 1974 Israeli Syrian disengagement agreements. He has also pressed Hebrew media outlets to increase coverage of what he describes as \u201cthe historical inevitability of confrontation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Read also: https: U.S. to Begin Troop Withdrawal from Syria Within Two Months, Despite Israeli Concerns<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Military Budget Adjustments<\/b><\/h2>\n

The Nagel Committee recommends increasing Israel\u2019s military budget by 15% annually until 2030. Investments should prioritize electronic warfare systems to counter Turkey\u2019s \u201cKoral\u201d jamming technology and air Force enhancements including more F-35I fighter jets capable of breaching advanced air defences.<\/span><\/p>\n

Classified documents cited in the report suggest Russia may tacitly allow a limited conflict between Israel and Turkey as part of its strategy to weaken all actors involved. The report also expresses concern that U.S. focus on its rivalry with China may reduce American support for Israel, thereby emboldening Turkey.<\/span><\/p>\n

The report concludes that the next five years will likely see one of two outcomes: the collapse of the Turkish Syrian alliance due to economic pressures, or military escalation culminating in a direct confrontation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Final Recommendation<\/b>: Committee chairman Yaakov Nagel called for the formation of a counter-alliance led by Israel to balance shifting regional power dynamics. He warned that Syria is no longer just a front in the conflict with Iran but has become the eastern gateway for a new existential threat to Israel.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Ghandi Al-Muhtar Israeli Turkish relations are witnessing a renewed escalation, as Syria turns into a regional battleground between the two powers. A report from the Israeli “Nagel Committee,” alongside recent military developments, underscores Israel\u2019s mounting anxiety over Turkey\u2019s growing foothold in Syria, especially in the wake of the fall of the Assad regime, which […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":37606,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":{"format":"standard","override":[{"template":"1","single_blog_custom":"0","parallax":"1","fullscreen":"1","layout":"left-sidebar","sidebar":"default-sidebar","second_sidebar":"default-sidebar","sticky_sidebar":"1","share_position":"float","share_float_style":"share-normal","show_share_counter":"1","show_view_counter":"1","show_featured":"1","show_post_meta":"1","show_post_author":"1","show_post_author_image":"1","show_post_date":"1","post_date_format":"default","post_date_format_custom":"g:i a d\/m\/Y","post_reading_time_wpm":"300","post_calculate_word_method":"str_word_count","show_zoom_button":"1","zoom_button_out_step":"5","zoom_button_in_step":"4","show_post_tag":"1","number_popup_post":"1","show_post_related":"1"}],"image_override":[{"single_post_thumbnail_size":"crop-500","single_post_gallery_size":"crop-500"}],"trending_post_position":"meta","trending_post_label":"Trending","sponsored_post_label":"Sponsored by","disable_ad":"0","subtitle":"Israel-Turkey tensions escalate as a new report warns of Ankara\u2019s growing military and political influence in post-Assad Syria, positioning Turkey as a greater threat than 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