Ahmed Al-Jaber – Damascus
Recent protests at Russia’s Hmeimim Air Base in Syria have drawn significant attention both domestically and internationally. The demonstrations erupted following violent unrest in the coastal region, which left hundreds dead and forced many families to seek refuge at the Russian-controlled base, hoping for protection.
Widely circulated videos show protesters demanding international protection as violence in the region intensifies. While some accuse them of being “remnants” of the former Syrian regime, others assert that they are civilians fleeing retaliatory attacks carried out by various factions, particularly targeting the Alawite community.
The demonstrators refused to meet with delegations from Syria’s new administration. Meanwhile, international and regional actors have expressed concern over the escalating violence. Several European and Middle Eastern nations have condemned the attacks and called for the protection of civilians, while also emphasizing Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. In contrast, Russia’s stance remains ambiguous, with no clear position taken on the ongoing clashes.
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Russia’s Role in the Unrest
The protests coincided with the emergence of leaked audio recordings allegedly involving former regime loyalists coordinating with Russian forces at Hmeimim. Reports suggest that Russia may have provided these groups with weapons and logistical support, raising suspicions about Moscow’s potential involvement in stirring unrest to advance its strategic interests in Syria.
According to political science professor Salah Qirata, “A mix of civilians, former regime members, and their families entered Hmeimim Air Base after waiting for hours. Eventually, Russian forces allowed them inside.”
While some reports indicate that Russian forces offered shelter to displaced civilians and facilitated humanitarian aid through the Syrian government, doubts remain regarding Russia’s true motives.
Strategic Interests Take Precedence
Following a period of relative calm in Syria’s coastal region, Russia’s position has become more apparent through official statements. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refrained from commenting on the situation in detail, stating only that “our troops have the necessary security measures in place” and adding, “Generally, I will not comment on ongoing operations, as we do not have full details.”
Professor Qirata explains that “Russia seeks to bolster its image as a protector of minorities in Syria, which could earn it both local and international support. Furthermore, accommodating displaced civilians at Hmeimim underscores the base’s strategic importance to Moscow, reinforcing its long-term military and political influence in the region.”
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The Balance Between Humanitarianism and Political Strategy
Observers argue that Moscow is approaching the crisis pragmatically, aiming to appear supportive of Syria’s new administration while avoiding direct political exploitation of the displaced civilians. Mustafa Khaled Al-Mohammed, a political advisor based in Moscow, told +963 that “around 400 families entered the Russian base in Hmeimim, and as tensions in the coastal region escalated, additional individuals followed due to family ties.”
Al-Mohammed added that “Russia initially allowed these families to stay for humanitarian reasons. However, it later signaled that continued support was unsustainable, urging their departure once security conditions improved.”
Additionally, he emphasized that “Moscow backs Syria’s new administration under Ahmad Al-Shara, as any prolonged instability would threaten Russian investments and strategic interests in the country.”
Is Russia Exploiting the Crisis?
Some analysts believe Russia is unlikely to leverage the crisis politically on the global stage, aside from possibly offering asylum to former regime officers. However, there is speculation that Moscow had been in contact with Ahmad Al-Shara before the collapse of the previous regime and Bashar Al-Assad’s flight to Russia. This suggests that Russia is less focused on exploiting displaced civilians at Hmeimim and more concerned with securing its military foothold and ensuring its continued influence in Syria’s political landscape.
