Wael Al-Amin
A Long-Awaited Agreement
Over the past week, Syria has witnessed a series of rapid developments. Following attacks by “remnants” of the Assad regime on the new Syria government security forces along the Syrian coast, the situation appeared to be spiralling into a new cycle of conflict, reminiscent of the early days of the Syrian war in 2011. However, the agreement between the Syrian interim government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has emerged as a potential resolution to prevent further violence in northeastern Syria.
The agreement, signed between Syria’s interim leader Ahmad Sharaa and General Mazloum Abdi, commander of the SDF, on Monday evening, has been described as “historic.” Its timing has sparked discussions, particularly given the recent coastal events that have increased international pressure to protect civilians.
In an exclusive statement to +963, Saudi-based political analyst Mohammad Hweidi remarked, “The timing of this agreement is crucial, especially after recent events on the coast, which have led to international calls for civilian protection. It also serves to ease pressure on the Syrian government as it seeks to enhance its legitimacy on the global stage.”
Hweidi further emphasized that “this agreement is even more significant than the National Conference, as it indirectly reinforces Syria’s secular identity and guarantees the rights of all Syrians.” He noted that the SDF-controlled regions, accounting for approximately 30% of Syria’s territory east of the Euphrates and some areas west of the river, are home to a diverse mix of ethnic groups, including Arabs, Kurds, Assyrians, and Yazidis. Additionally, these regions contain over 95% of Syria’s oil reserves, which could alleviate economic hardships if the agreement is successfully implemented.
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A Political Turning Point
Following the political uncertainty in Syria, particularly after the coastal incidents, Dr. Hani El-Gamal, head of the European and Strategic Studies Unit at the Arab Centre for Studies, described the Sharaa-Abdi agreement as a “stabilizing factor.”
Speaking to +963 from Egypt, El-Gamal stated, “This agreement signifies a major shift in the key players influencing the Syrian crisis. The U.S. has now become the dominant force shaping Syria’s future, which was evident when Abdi was airlifted to Damascus by an American helicopter, a dramatic moment underscoring Washington’s central role in managing the agreement.”
He further highlighted that the agreement’s final clause, which mandates the formation of executive committees by the end of the year, points to “a gradual restructuring of the Syrian state along American guidelines, including formal recognition of the SDF as part of Syria’s new governance model. This could pave the way for a decentralized, federal, or integrative political system that accommodates Kurdish demands in northeastern Syria.”
Stability or a Temporary Truce?
While some view the agreement as a step toward lasting peace, Hweidi cautioned that achieving stability in Syria requires international consensus among key stakeholders such as Russia, the U.S., and Turkey. “The Syrian crisis is highly complex and demands external agreements before internal resolutions can take effect,” he explained. However, he acknowledged that the agreement “lays the foundation for rebuilding a Syrian state that represents all factions and communities.”
He also noted that the agreement guarantees political participation for all ethnic and religious groups, signaling a move in the right direction. However, questions remain about how the ceasefire provisions will be enforced, particularly in conflict-prone areas such as Tishreen Dam, which has been a hotspot since the fall of the Assad regime, and regions facing continued Turkish military reinforcements.
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“The key challenge,” Hweidi emphasized, “is the enforcement mechanism. The Syrian government supports the ceasefire, but will Turkey-backed forces in Tishreen Dam comply? This will determine whether Syria truly moves toward peace.”
El-Gamal concurred, suggesting that Turkey remains the primary obstacle to the agreement’s implementation. Speaking to +963 he said, “Washington may offer Turkey security guarantees to prevent further escalation in northern and eastern Syria.” He described the agreement as a “pragmatic move to pre-empt a broader conflict, especially with the resurgence of Assad-era forces and the looming threat of ISIS, which has yet to fully exploit the current political uncertainty.”
He further argued that “this agreement may serve as a temporary measure rather than a long-term solution. The U.S. may have pushed for this deal as part of its broader strategy to reshape Syria’s political landscape, but deep-rooted ideological differences between the Kurds and the central government could hinder its long-term success.”
Observers suggest that this agreement presents a critical opportunity for Syrians to build a modern, unified state. With national reconciliation, territorial unity, and international support, Syria now has the potential to rebuild, facilitate refugee returns, and achieve lasting peace.
