Paola Attieh
As Syria moves toward political stabilization and begins the process of revitalizing its economy, policymakers face a critical economic crossroads. After nearly five decades of a semi-socialist system marked by clientelism, disorder, and selective capitalism, the pressing question before Syria’s economic elites, both within the country and abroad, is which system is truly suited for the nation’s future.
Some advocate for a transition to a free market economy, yet deep concerns remain about the feasibility and challenges of this model under the current circumstances. Beyond theoretical advantages, there are key questions about its compatibility with Syria’s economic structure and societal mindset. A free market economy, based on supply and demand, private ownership, and competition, requires a cultural and institutional framework that may take time to develop.
Following the fall of Assad, Syria’s economy, already crippled by war and sanctions, was on the brink of collapse. In response, the new government has pursued a series of economic reforms aimed at liberalising the market. These measures include allowing foreign currencies such as the U.S. dollar and Turkish lira to be used alongside the Syrian lire, an act that, under Assad’s rule, could lead to imprisonment. The government also deregulated exchange rates, leading to an appreciation of the Syrian lira by 20-30% against the dollar.
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These changes have had a tangible impact. According to data from the Syrian interim government, commodity prices, particularly for essential goods such as oil, sugar, rice, and potatoes, have dropped by 10-25%. Additionally, subsidies have been lifted on most goods except for bread, and tariffs have been reduced by 50-60% compared to the previous period.
Optimists argue that a free market model could facilitate Syria’s integration into the global economy, attracting foreign investment and strengthening its position in international trade. However, challenges remain in ensuring that this transition does not lead to further economic disparities or exploitation.
During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani stated that Syria aims to follow the economic development models of Singapore and Saudi Arabia.
Mohammed al-Hallak, a member of the Board of Directors of the Damascus Chamber of Commerce, described the shift toward a free market economy as a significant step that could enhance the value of locally produced goods, which have demonstrated their quality and efficiency in comparison to imports, according to SANA. Meanwhile, Syrian industrialist Atef Tafur described the free market as “the future national goal”, predicting that market liberalization would boost competition, improve product quality, and expand consumer choices.
Despite these optimistic projections, excessive enthusiasm carries risks. Al-Shibani’s argument is questionable, as Syria lacks the natural and financial resources that enabled Saudi Arabia or Singapore to embrace a free market economy with confidence.
The country faces major obstacles in implementing this economic model. Economic activity in the Syrian market remains weak to stagnant due to the owing to the inability of government institutions, businesses, and public utilities to resume full operations. Security instability persists in many regions and widespread looting and destruction of government departments and public sector enterprises have further hampered recovery. Additionally, high transportation costs and the failure to pay tens of thousands of workers in state institutions and the former military sector pose further economic challenges.
The viability of a free market economy varies across different sectors. Syria’s food and pharmaceutical industries remain competitive due to their established reliability and quality. However, sectors such as electronics and household appliances may struggle, as consumers are more inclined toward imported goods. The textile industry also faces marketing and sales difficulties due to the influx of foreign products flooding the market.
For a free market economy to succeed, Syria must first increase production levels across all economic sectors, particularly in industry. This requires government intervention in the form of protectionist tariffs on imported goods with local equivalents, subsidized energy costs, accessible financing, and other supportive measures.
A sustainable free market model can only be achieved by securing sufficient government revenue for investment, ultimately leading to societal prosperity. However, this is impossible without creating a business-friendly environment, eliminating the deep-rooted corruption of the Assad regime, and dismantling the bureaucratic inefficiencies falsely labelled as socialism. The hope is that this transformation does not simply replace one corrupt system—the Arab Socialist Baath regime—with another, such as the more rigid rule of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
While a free market economy offers promising opportunities for attracting investment, fostering competition, and improving local product quality, its success depends on achieving security and political stability, rebuilding infrastructure, enacting laws that protect domestic industries, and incentivizing investment. A gradual approach may be more effective, incorporating social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable, ensuring fair resource distribution, increasing transparency, and combating corruption.
